Box Office Prediction: Wonder Woman vs. Pirates of the Caribbean 5

Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week's box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Talesopening weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of June 2 - 4, 2017.

This weekend, Wonder Woman plays in more than 4,000 theaters and Captain Underpants debuts in 3,300 locations.

#1 - Wonder Woman

The easy choice for the top spot this weekend is Wonder Woman (read our review), the latest installment in the DC Extended Universe. Up until this point, the franchise has always generated mixed reactions from critics, but the movies have all posted strong box office numbers. For instance, last year's Suicide Squad made $325.1 million and Batman V Superman grossed $330.3 million. There is clearly an interest to see these characters on the big screen - especially Diana Prince. Wonder Woman is the most anticipated movie of the summer and one fans have long wanted to see. This is a feature more than 75 years in the making, and viewers are poised to turn out in droves to see it.

Some projections have Wonder Woman set at $95 million for the first three days, while others are going as high as $111 million. The film has been the recipient of strong word-of-mouth, earning some of the best reviews of any comic book movie. That positive buzz will certainly provide a boost to its commercial prospects, as there will be much demand to see it. Additionally, many of the would-be summer tentpoles after Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 have disappointed due to poor reviews and audience reception. Given Wonder Woman's Certified Fresh ranking on Rotten Tomatoes, that won't be a problem here. This could be the shot in the arm the season needed.

#2 - Captain Underpants

Coming in a very distant second should be Captain Underpants, a new animated film based on a series of children's books. The project is coming into theaters with little fan fare, but it is helped by the fact the target demographic has been largely underserved in recent weeks. The last animated family movie to leave much of an impact was The Boss Baby, which debuted back in March. It's never wise to bet against something aimed at the juice box crowd, and something new geared toward that crowd could do well out of the gate. On the other hand, both Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3 premiere later this month, and those are sequels in popular established franchises that are of much higher-profile. Captain Underpants should do well for itself (even with the competition), but it isn't going to be a breakaway hit. Estimates have it pegged for $29.5 million this opening weekend.

#3 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Look for last week's champ, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (read our review), to slide to third in its second weekend. The newest film in Disney's mega franchise opened below expectations with $78.4 million for the four-day Memorial Day weekend, which was the lowest debut for the series since the original movie came out in 2003. It's evident that interest in the property (at least domestically) has considerably decreased, and it's unlikely Pirates will turn things around. Wonder Woman will surely be the blockbuster of the moment, taking much attention away from Captain Jack Sparrow.

#4 - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Our choice for fourth is Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (read our review), which came in second last weekend with $27.1 million. The latest entry into the Marvel Cinematic Universe has done very well over the past month, earning more than its predecessor. However, now that it's been out for a handful of weeks and there's a new superhero movie in town, business will continue to go down.

#5 - Baywatch

Rounding out the top five should be Baywatch (read our review). The comedy stumbled in its opening frame, making just $23.1 million for the holiday weekend. Since demand was that low at the start, there's no reason to believe the panned TV adaptation will bounce back now. This is a rare misfire for Dwayne Johnson.

Last Week's Recap

Our Picks:

  • Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
  • Baywatch
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
  • Alien: Covenant
  • Everything, Everything


  • Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
  • Baywatch
  • Alien: Covenant
  • Everything, Everything

Next Week: Wonder Woman, The Mummy, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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