The Best Actor award at the 2023 Oscars has been a close race between the five nominees, with industry praise and notable wins throughout the awards season helping to predict who will take home the Academy Award. Following Will Smith’s Best Actor win for King Richard at the 2022 Oscars, this year’s five nominees are Brendan Fraser for The Whale, Austin Butler for Elvis, Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin, Bill Nighy for Living, and Paul Mescal for Aftersun. The 2023 Best Actor category didn’t come with any huge surprises, as it’s filled with nominees who would each be incredibly deserving winners.
Interestingly, all five men are first-time nominees in the Oscars’ Best Actor category, though they bring very different backstories, career lengths, and triumphs to their campaigns. While this context will undoubtedly come into play when the Academy decides the winner, it’s also important to note how integral the actors’ performances were in making their respective 2022 movies so successful. When combining these factors and looking at the outcomes of prior events throughout the awards season, one nominee stands out as the statistically favored winner of the 2023 Oscars’ Best Actor award. Still, this prediction is subject to change as results from other voting bodies are announced.
Brendan Fraser Is Predicted To Win Best Actor At The 2023 Oscars
After winning numerous critics awards and having pending nominations for key upcoming races, Brendan Fraser currently has the best odds to win Best Actor at the Academy Awards. Fraser’s performance as the dying reclusive teacher Charlie was the most notable and recognized aspect of The Whale, which combines with Fraser's heartwarming Hollywood comeback story to make him the front-runner for the Oscar award. While The Whale itself has received mixed responses from critics, widespread praise for the undeniable talent of Brendan Fraser in the film, especially after being cast out of Hollywood, situates him as the most likely winner.
There are still a few more outcomes from major voting bodies that will be significant indicators of whether Brendan Fraser is a lock for the 2023 Best Actor Oscar win. Fraser is nominated for the Best Actor equivalent at the upcoming BAFTAs, SAG Awards, and Satellite Awards, whose winners often align with the actor who takes home the Oscar. For instance, 2022 Best Actor winner Will Smith won at the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, and SAG Awards, with 2021 winner Anthony Hopkins similarly taking home equivalent prizes at the BAFTAs, though he lost at the SAG Awards and Golden Globes. If Brendan Fraser takes home the Best Actor award in these races, his probability of winning the Oscar will increase further.
Colin Farrell & Austin Butler Could Still Win Best Actor
Fraser is still facing fierce competition from front-runners Colin Farrell and Austin Butler in the Oscars' Best Actor competition. Farrell has outdone himself with his earnest portrayal of Irishman Pádraic, a simple man going through an existential crisis. After winning at the Gotham Awards and Golden Globes in the comedy category, Farrell appears to have the home advantage at the BAFTAs, which could make him the Oscars race leader. Hollywood also loves a big-budget biopic drama, with Austin Butler’s dedicated performance as legendary singer Elvis Presley being a highlight of 2022. After winning several Breakthrough Performance awards, Butler won Best Actor in the Golden Globes’ drama category, which establishes him as an Oscars frontrunner.
The most surprising wins for Best Actor would be if Paul Mescal and Bill Nighty managed to pull ahead. The two actors have received considerably less buzz for their roles, but that isn’t to say that they’re less deserving of the Oscar. Paul Mescal’s complex and layered performance as the depressed single young father Calum in Aftersun is a tear-jerker, with Bill Nighy’s inspiring role as Living's terminally ill Public Works employee Rodney Williams being one of the greatest performances of his long career. Still, the odds are in favor of Fraser, Farrell, and Butler at the 2023 Oscars.