As James Cameron’s hit sequel continues to dominate the box office, Avatar: The Way of Water’s theatrical run may extend further, indicating it won’t leave theaters anytime soon. After premiering on December 16, 2022, Avatar: The Way of Water quickly became the third-highest-grossing film of all time with a growing total of $2.27 billion, falling behind only Avengers: Endgame ($2.80 billion) and James Cameron’s original Avatar movie ($2.92 billion). After 11 weekends in theaters, Avatar: The Way of Water continues to top box office charts and defy modern trends with theatrical releases, with the length of its run in theaters also expected to unconventionally follow suit.
Disney has yet to announce a timeline for when Avatar: The Way of Water will leave theaters, and has given no indication of when the Avatar sequel will stream on Disney+. However, given the fact that the film’s box office is highly profitable for the studio, Avatar 2’s theatrical length could be the longest for a Disney movie since the 2009 original – and potentially even longer. When assessing the theatrical lengths of box office hits in the pandemic era, the original Avatar movie, and the slow decline of its commercial performance, the end of Avatar: The Way of Water’s time in theaters can be better estimated.
When Avatar 2 Will Leave Theaters Based On Past Box Office Hits
It’s guaranteed that Avatar: The Way of Water will remain in theaters past March 12, as Disney will continue showing the film both before and after the Oscars ceremony on that date. Since Avatar 2 is up for Best Picture at the 2023 Oscars, there is apt to be a renewed interest in the film around the time of the coveted Hollywood event, especially if it takes home any major awards. However, mid-March is a very conservative estimate for how long Avatar: The Way of Water will be in theaters, as a more realistic prediction would be until the end of summer 2023.
Top Gun: Maverick, the most recent non-MCU film before Avatar 2 to break box office records in the pandemic era, boasted an original theatrical run of 24 weeks and a nearly $1.5 billion worldwide gross. The box office hit Spider-Man: No Way Home premiered in December 2021 and ended its initial run in June 2022, which was just short of crossing $2 billion by the time it left theaters. Endgame initially stayed in theaters for about three months before quickly being rereleased and earning over $2.7 billion at the box office, with most top-grossing Disney movies seeing fewer than 25 weeks in theaters. If following Disney’s six-month trend, Avatar 2 could leave theaters in June 2023 at the earliest.
However, none have had the same power or legs at the box office as James Cameron’s Avatar franchise, suggesting Avatar: The Way of Water will follow in the footsteps of the original’s theatrical run rather than recent Disney hits. The original Avatar movie stayed in theaters for 34 weeks, which ended in the film accumulating $2.74 billion. If Avatar: The Way of Water stays in theaters for the same number of weeks, then its run is likely to conclude at the end of August or the beginning of September 2023. This would give the 2023 movie eight months in theaters, which could be enough time for Avatar 2’s box office to break Avengers: Endgame’s $2.8 billion total.
How Much Money Will Avatar 2 Make Before Leaving Theaters?
For a film that was released in mid-December and has faced remarkable competition from new MCU releases, hit comedies, and thrillers since its premiere, Avatar: The Way of Water has a shockingly strong ongoing presence at the box office. Not only is it still performing in the top five at the box office each week heading into March, but Avatar 2 is also unlikely to significantly drop in the charts as it continues to bring in at least $5 million each weekend. Avatar: The Way of Water has already grossed $2.27 billion at the box office before the end of February, with projections estimating that the movie could earn at least $2.5 billion before leaving theaters.
If Avatar 2 stays in theaters until the end of August 2023, this total may grow even higher. James Cameron’s box office hit could earn more than $250 million with an additional six months in theaters, especially if it has the entire summer to bring families back into theaters. While it’s unlikely that Avatar: The Way of Water will surpass Endgame and Avatar (2009) before leaving theaters, a box office gross of $2.6 billion at the end of its initial run means it has the potential to surpass at least one of the leaders on a subsequent re-release.
When Avatar: The Way Of Water Could Hit Disney+
Since the pandemic, most Disney films have dropped on Disney+ approximately 45 days after their theatrical premieres, whereas the studio’s bigger releases like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever hit Disney+ after around 80 days. However, Avatar: The Way of Water has been in theaters for nearly 80 days and has yet to receive a Disney+ streaming release date. Given how much of a box office powerhouse Avatar 2 has been for Disney, its lack of a streaming premiere isn’t surprising and is expected to be delayed as long as possible.
It took seven months before Paramount dropped the box office hit Top Gun: Maverick on Paramount+ for streaming, so Avatar 2 will likely follow suit. While it’s possible that Avatar: The Way of Water could land on Disney+ sometime in late March, it may be in Disney’s best interest to keep it exclusive in theaters for as long as possible. As such, Avatar: The Way of Water may not land on Disney+ until summer 2023, potentially coinciding with when it finally leaves theaters.
