The 2023 Golden Globes paints a fascinating picture heading towards this year's Oscars ceremony. Due to ongoing controversy concerning diversity and representation, the Golden Globes took a backseat in 2022, with the awards announced privately in a non-televised event. Normal service more or less resumed in 2023, with the 80th Golden Globe Awards broadcast on its traditional home of NBC and returning to the red carpet glamour of former years. Alongside that comes the usual glut of winners both deserved and divisive, with The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All At Once among the movies in multi-award contention.
Traditionally taking place earlier in the calendar, the Golden Globe Awards winners are often a useful barometer for what to expect from the Academy Awards, with the 2023 Oscars taking place on March 12 after nominations are announced in late January. Although the Golden Globes have a tendency to go rogue, landing one can put a movie or actor in a stronger position for success at the Oscars, or at least signal which way the wind is blowing in Hollywood. That trend continues in 2023, in which a cluster of clear favorites is now beginning to take shape.
The Fabelmans vs. Banshees Of Inisherin Is The Best Picture Battle
Across all major movie categories, the two most prominent titles at 2023's Golden Globes were The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin, with Steven Spielberg's love letter to cinema going head-to-head against Martin McDonagh's tale about two grown Irishmen falling out. Steven Spielberg and The Fabelmans scooped several major gongs at the 2023 Golden Globes, winning Best Film in the drama category, while Spielberg added a Best Director to his not-inconsiderable collection of golden statues. The Banshees of Inisherin, however, won Best Film in the musical & comedy category, Best Screenplay, and Colin Farrell reigned supreme in the Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy category.
With The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin trading blows all night, it looks incredibly likely that the 2023 Golden Globes was merely a warm-up ahead of their true battle at the 95th Academy Awards in March. Both movies were already dripping in critical acclaim, and scooping a combined total of five major awards at the Golden Globes puts The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin ahead in the race to land that coveted Best Picture prize at the 2023 Oscars ceremony. Alas, calling a winner between the two has become even tougher. While The Banshees of Inisherin walked away from the 2023 Golden Globes with fuller arms, the Oscars is more naturally inclined to recognize dramatic features of The Fabelmans' ilk.
Steven Spielberg Will Probably Win Best Director
Although the battleground is set between The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin, Steven Spielberg now looks like the clear favorite to win the 2023 Oscar for Best Director. Over the past seven years, six of the Golden Globes' Best Director winners have gone on to claim the corresponding Academy Award later that year, with 2019's ceremony the sole outlier, honoring Bong Joon-ho for Parasite instead of Sam Mendes for 1917. Given that strong predictive record, Steven Spielberg will be incredibly difficult to beat at the upcoming Oscars.
In many ways, Spielberg was already a clear favorite. A darling of the Academy's with two Best Picture wins to his name already thanks to Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan, his semi-autobiographical story about the love of filmmaking in The Fabelmans is prime Oscar bait, especially compared to the more quirky, offbeat The Banshees of Inisherin. While both movies will inevitably do well, Steven Spielberg directing a film about how much he loves directing films makes Best Director virtually a foregone conclusion, and his Golden Globes success only cements that notion further.
Is Austin Butler The New Favorite For Best Actor?
Whereas Best Picture and Best Director now have clear favorites ahead of the Academy Awards, the Golden Globes mixed the pot for Best Actor. Heading into the 2023 Golden Globes, Brendan Fraser in The Whale was arguably the popular choice. After The Whale's lead actor announced he would be boycotting the event, however, Austin Butler's odds of winning Best Actor in a Drama for Elvis surged and, sure enough, he ousted Fraser on the night, picking up his prize in person. Butler's Golden Globe could make him a frontrunner for the Best Actor Oscar in 2023, but Brendan Fraser's public decision not to attend means their head-to-head is far from decided.
On the other hand, the Golden Globes does boast a strong track record of predicting the Oscars' Best Actor winner, picking the same recipient nine times since 2010. Additionally, the Oscars has an embedded preference for biopics, and with Austin Butler enjoying widespread praise for his embodiment of Elvis Presley, he fits the traditional mold of a Best Actor Oscar winner. On the other hand, Brendan Fraser and The Whale have a huge groundswell of audience support, and winning an Oscar would represent the perfect culmination of the actor's comeback - a fairytale ending the Academy may struggle to resist.
Ke Huy Quan Is Everything Everywhere All At Once's Best Oscar Hope
Everything Everywhere All At Once found itself at the summit of many "best movies of 2022" lists, and just like it did at the 2023 Golden Globes, will inevitably receive plenty of nods when the Academy announces this year's nominees. Unfortunately for the multiverse-bending epic, The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin will have most of the top categories locked, while Elvis seeks to send Brendan Fraser to heartbreak hotel over Best Actor. Michelle Yeoh won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in the musical & comedy category, but with Cate Blanchett picking up the Best Actress Golden Globe for drama with Tár, Yeoh could struggle when the categories are combined at the Oscars.
This means Everything Everywhere All At Once's best chance of winning at the 95th Academy Awards ceremony comes via Ke Huy Quan, who found Golden Globes success in the Best Supporting Actor category, beating the likes of Barry Keoghan and Eddie Redmayne. Ke Huy Quan's stiffest competition comes from The Banshees of Inisherin star Brendan Gleeson, but the category still offers the strongest prospects of victory for Everything Everywhere All At Once. Ke Huy Quan took a long break from Hollywood, with his 2022 role as Waymond Wang marking a triumphant comeback that the Oscars, like the Golden Globes, may deem worthy of recognition.
Angela Bassett's Best Supporting Actress Chances Are Real
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The Academy still shows a distaste for movies based on comic books, highlighted by the furor surrounding 2019's proposed Best Popular Film category, which seemed designed to appease Black Panther calls without actually deigning to honor a superhero movie. Fortunately, 2023's Oscars offers genuine hopes of recognition for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever with Angela Bassett in the Best Supporting Actress category. Bassett earned great acclaim for her reprisal of Ramonda in the MCU sequel, and won a 2023 Golden Globe for her trouble. This moves the actress above Kerry Condon and Carey Mulligan in the Oscars race, and potentially sets up a huge achievement for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.