Here's how The Way Back's March release date may impact Ben Affleck's chances this awards season. Hitting theaters earlier this month, the film is something of a comeback vehicle for Affleck, following his recent stint in rehab, separation from wife Jennifer Garner, and stepping down from the Batman role in the DC Extended Universe. The parallels between Affleck and his Way Back character Jack Cunningham were apparent to anyone who saw the movie's trailers, and the actor was very open about how making the film was a cathartic experience for him. Channeling his personal demons, Affleck delivered one of his finest performances yet as The Way Back earned positive reviews.
At one point, The Way Back was scheduled for October 2019, putting it in the thick of awards season. Warner Bros. ultimately decided to delay The Way Back to this spring and make Joker their top priority for the 2020 Oscars. As evidenced by Joker's $1 billion gross and two Oscar wins (including Best Actor), that proved to be a wise decision. However, fans of The Way Back are wondering how the shift could affect Affleck's odds of landing his own Best Actor nomination in the upcoming awards race.
The March premiere definitely stacks the deck against The Way Back, and this is a hurdle it'll have to clear. Affleck is enjoying rave reviews now, but by the time the fall festivals kick off and awards contending films start screening, he runs the risk of becoming an afterthought. Affleck won't be part of the immediate conversation during the initial wave of Oscar season buzz, and it'll be up to WB to keep him visible in the minds of voters. It's obviously much too early to say with any degree of certainty how the next Oscars will unfold, though WB does have other intriguing projects on the horizon like In the Heights, Tenet, and Dune which may become legitimate players on the awards circuit. If any of those (or something else) takes off, The Way Back may not get a huge push. Campaigning is a huge part of the Oscars, and if WB isn't going all out for Affleck, it puts him and the film at a disadvantage.
As the likes of The Grand Budapest Hotel, Get Out, Black Panther, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood have proven in recent years, a fall/winter release date is not a prerequisite for Oscar nominations. It is possible The Way Back follows suit, especially if WB is smart about how they handle their campaign. Focusing their efforts primarily on getting Affleck into the Best Actor field would be smart, rather than aiming for nominations across the board. The Way Back is well-received, but some critics took issue with the formulaic nature of some of the film's aspects, believing Affleck's performance elevated a relatively standard drama. The Way Back would be hard-pressed to score Best Picture or Best Director nominations, but it does have a puncher's chance in Actor. It goes without saying Affleck's odds will fluctuate depending on who the competition is.
Best Actor is typically one of the most stacked categories year in and year out, and there are always some high-profile snubs. The likes of Christian Bale, Eddie Murphy, Adam Sandler, and others missed this past year despite all delivering worthy performances. Because Affleck isn't going to be making headlines for his work later in the year (The Way Back will already be on home media by the time the festival titles start generating buzz), he's going to have to hope this is a weaker Best Actor year than usual, allowing him to sneak in. It would be nice to see Affleck net some accolades for The Way Back, but viewers and his fans can always take solace in the work itself and know Affleck's back on the top of his game after years of personal struggles.