Box Office Prediction: Transformers 5 vs. Cars 3

Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week's box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Cars 3's opening weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of June 23 - 25, 2017.

This weekend, Transformers: The Last Knight opens in 4,069 theaters.

#1 - Transformers: The Last Knight

Coming in first this weekend should be Transformers: The Last Knight (read our review), the fifth installment in the popular Transformers film series. For 10 years, the franchise has been dominating the box office, as the previous films have all found a good deal of success commercially. The robots in disguise last rolled into theaters back in 2014 with Age of Extinction, which brought in $100 million in its opening weekend en route to a $245.4 million domestic haul. That's certainly nothing to sneeze at, but that film is the lowest-grossing entry of the property to date in the U.S. Though there remains interest in the Autobots on the big screen, it's clear there isn't as much as there used to.

Already, we're starting to see signs of franchise fatigue settle in. The Last Knight opened on Wednesday, June 21 to the lowest debut Stateside for the series. It's struggling to make much of an impact domestically due to its poor critical reception, with many pundits saying it's another thinly-plotted blockbuster that is more or less what people would expect. There was a time where Transformers was critic-proof, but that seems to have passed after several installments that have largely failed to impress. The Last Knight will secure the top position, but it isn't going to come close to its predecessors. Projections for the 3-day weekend are $46 million, with the 5-day estimates around $60-75 million.

#2 - Cars 3

Look for last week's champ, Cars 3 (read our review), to fall to second in its second weekend. The latest from Pixar got off to a decent start in its opening frame, bringing in $53.6 million as it scored solid, if unremarkable, reviews. If this was one of the studio's more acclaimed efforts like Inside Out and generated more fan fare at the start, it may have been able to beat Transformers for #1 this weekend. However, Cars seems to have the least amount of widespread appeal out of all the animation giant's properties, so Lightning McQueen should continue to do well with the family demographic, but not casual audiences overall.

#3 - Wonder Woman

Coming in third should be Wonder Woman (read our review), which came in second last week with $41.2 million. As one of the few summer releases so far to have positive word-of-mouth, the newest entry in the DC Extended Universe has parlayed its acclaim into record-breaking box office returns. Though business is starting to slow down a bit, Diana Prince's first solo vehicle will likely have another healthy three days at the marketplace, especially since the other options haven't earned as strong reviews.

#4 - All Eyez On Me

Our pick for fourth is All Eyez On MeThe Tupac biopic exceeded expectations last week and opened with $26.4 million. Despite the film's widely negative critical response, fans of the rapper are still interested in seeing his life's story told on the big screen. As All Eyez On Me continues its run, its outreach should become more and more niche, but it could be a counter-programming option for people looking for a break from the usual tentpole fare.

#5 - The Mummy

Rounding out the top five should be The Mummy (read our review). Tom Cruise's box office bomb is hanging around the top of the charts due to lack of competition, and it'll likely be able to hold on to a spot for one more week.

Last Week's Recap

Our Picks:

  • Cars 3
  • Wonder Woman
  • Rough Night
  • All Eyez On Me
  • The Mummy


  • Cars 3
  • Wonder Woman
  • All Eyez On Me
  • The Mummy
  • 47 Meters Down

Next Week: Baby Driver, Despicable Me 3, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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