Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend - in collaboration with the Screen Rant Underground podcast Box Office Battle - to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week's box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Think Like a Man Too's opening weekend - and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge that our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of June 27 - 29, 2014.
This weekend, sci-fi sequel Transformers: Age of Extinction opens in 4,000 theaters. On the limited front, we have America debuting in three theaters, Begin Again releasing in five locations, and Snowpiercer opens in 10 theaters.
#1 - Transformers: Age of Extinction
The obvious choice for first place this week is Michael Bay’s latest, Transformers: Age of Extinction. Despite a less-than-stellar critical reception, moviegoers have responded very well to this franchise, as the previous installment – 2011’s Transformers: Dark of the Moon – opened with $97.8 million en route to a $352.3 million domestic total. With a release for a fifth entry planned, Paramount is expecting big things for the fourth movie in the series. It looks as if those hopes will be met, since early tracking indicates a $96 million opening weekend.
It’s a given that Age of Extinction will open on top; the only question is how high it will go. There’s a small chance that franchise fatigue may set in but that won’t hurt Transformers. Bay has traded Shia LaBeouf for Mark Wahlberg, a move that could prove to be beneficial. Not only does it give the series something fresh, Wahlberg is also one of the more popular leading men working today. Earlier this year, Lone Survivor scored over $125 million and last year’s 2 Guns brought in $75.6 million. The actor’s likable presence could encourage his fans to check Transformers out, contributing to the high opening gross.
#2 - Think Like a Man Too
Coming in a very distant second should be Think Like a Man Too (read our review). The rom-com sequel won last weekend with $29.2 million, which is a smaller intake than its 2012 predecessor. This shows that demand may not be that high and the film probably won’t have strong legs at the box office. It could be a solid counter-programming option, so it won’t slip that much, but there’s no way it can compete with a major franchise like Transformers.
#3 - 22 Jump Street
Our pick for third is 22 Jump Street (read our review). Phil Lord and Chris Miller’s second hit of 2014 made an additional $27.4 million in its second weekend to raise its total to $109.9 million. The R-rated action comedy sequel will continue to perform well, since fans of the genre have few options currently available. However, the arrival of Transformers will dominate the marketplace and cut into everyone’s ticket sales, leading to 22 Jump Street dropping down the charts once more.
#4 - How to Train Your Dragon 2
Coming in fourth should be How to Train Your Dragon 2 (read our review). Perhaps somewhat oddly – given the lack of competition – the animated sequel has not performed as strongly as one would think. Finishing in third place last weekend, the latest from DreamWorks Animation has grossed $94.5 million through two weeks. While it is the only option for families at this time, it’s clear that the demand for the movie was not that high, giving us reason to believe it will continue to slide down the charts. Since Transformers will eat into the business for 22 Jump Street, it could leapfrog the comedy, but some thought that would happen last week and it didn’t.
#5 - Jersey Boys
Rounding out the top five should be Jersey Boys (read our review). Coming in fourth last week, the musical adaptation continued director Clint Eastwood’s cold streak with a gross of only $13.3 million. Given that its target audience is older moviegoers, it could hold better than most summer releases, but it’s not going to become a crossover hit in the vein of Mystic River or Million Dollar Baby.
#10 - X-Men: Days of Future Past
That's it for this week's breakdown.
Now, if you want to participate in the weekly Box Office Battle, it's time for you to make your picks! In the comments section below, post what you think will be the top five movies this weekend at the box office as well as your own number ten tiebreaker. Then, tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the results and find out who won.
Opening in theaters this week (Wide):
- Transformers: Age of Extinction - 4,000 theaters
Opening in theaters this week (Limited):
- America - 3 theaters
- Being Again - 5 theaters
- Snowpiercer - 10 theaters
Box Office Battle Scoring Rules: You get three (3) points for each direct match with the weekend actuals and one (1) point for each movie placed within one spot of the exact position. A perfect score is 15 points. Tie-breakers are not worth any points but, in the event of a tie, the person with a tie-breaker selection closest to the number 10 spot will be awarded the win.
Last Week’s Official Box Office Battle Reader Winner (Think Like a Man Too's opening): Sal reports that Memo Grajeda is the winner with a score of 13 points.
For the record, here are our picks from last week - along with the corresponding amount of points we received for each pick (listed in parenthesis).
- #1 - Think Like a Man Too (3)
- #2 - 22 Jump Street (3)
- #3 - How to Train Your Dragon 2 (3)
- #4 - Maleficent (1)
- #5 - Jersey Boys (1)
- #10 - A Million Ways to Die in the West
- Final Score: 11 points
Make sure to check back later this week for the official box office results and tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the weekly winners!
Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisAgar90
Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule)