Top Gun: Maverick released in May 2022 to critical acclaim and breaking box office records, but it was intended to release in June 2020, which may have provided a different outcome for the long-awaited sequel. The sequel comes nearly 40 years after the highly successful 1986 Top Gun, starring Tom Cruise. The film is a continuation of Maverick's story, set almost four decades after the conclusion of the original to keep pace with the real world and provide the film with an authentic feel. Having grossed close to 1.5 billion at the box office, it is the biggest movie of 2022.
But Maverick was not supposed to be a 2022 film at all. The first sneak peeks of the film were released in July 2019 to excited audiences, who were patiently waiting for a June 26, 2020 release, after special effects and complicated action shots delayed production for nearly a year. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the release was moved back several months before being pushed out to 2021 and ultimately to 2022 when it wound up breaking box office records. While frustrating for those eager to see the movie, it is possible that the anticipation, hype, and theater shut-downs actually helped the sequel to become as successful as it was.
What Was Top Gun: Maverick's Box Office Competition In 2020?
If there had been no pandemic, Top Gun: Maverick would have opened in the summer of 2020. It would have been released against other major blockbusters such as Black Widow, Wonder Woman: 1984, Soul, Minions: The Rise of Gru, Morbius, and Free Guy. While that isn't a complete list of movies that were set to release in the summer of 2020, it is likely that those are the movies that would have performed best. Many of these movies suffered due to going directly to streaming services that grew in 2020 or having limited releases at the box office, something that Maverick avoided by pushing its release to 2022.
Would Top Gun: Maverick Have Been As Big In 2020?
Given the fact that fans of Top Gun had already been waiting since 2019 to see the film, the 2020 release would have likely been a box-office success. Looking at 2020 as a whole, it would have also been up against Eternals and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings. Counting Black Widow, that would have been three Marvel movies to compete against for the title of the highest-grossing movie. While none of the three made nearly as much money as Maverick, the decision to release them in 2021 (and release Black Widow to Disney+ early) almost definitely plays into that.
Maverick would have also been released directly after Father's Day, 2020 which fell on June 21st. With the kid-friendly Soul planning its release on June 19, it is probable that could have impacted box office numbers as well, especially for its opening weekend. While star Jon Hamm believes the success of Maverick is due to it being a story about real people instead of aliens or superheroes, it is unlikely that it would have grossed as much money as it did if it got released in 2020. Fathers and families who would have chosen to see a movie for Father's Day could have chosen Soul and given that many people don't see two movies in one week likely wouldn't be back just five days later to see Maverick.
Would Top Gun: Maverick Still Have Made 1 Billion Dollars in 2020?
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In 2020, Top Gun: Maverick had strong competition which would have split the box office. It is likely it still would have crossed the mark of grossing a billion dollars, given that many highly anticipated summer blockbusters from pre-pandemic years tended to achieve that goal. However, its theatrical run likely would have been much shorter than it has been in 2022. Maverick is still playing in theaters as of November 2022, which continues to add to its box office success.
As theaters and movies are only just now making a full comeback, releasing it in mid-2022 was a smart choice. The release placed it right where there was no major competition, theaters were open again fully, and the demand for movies was high. Overall, Top Gun: Maverick was a highly anticipated movie that would have performed well no matter when it was released. But given the circumstances of the pandemic, it is one of the few movies that actually benefited from not being released when it was supposed to.