While Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One will likely be a major success, the sequel has almost no chance of replicating Top Gun: Maverick’s box office impact. Outside one major flop in the form of 2017’s The Mummy (a misfire that ended up tanking the entire Dark Cinematic Universe), Tom Cruise is one of the most reliable blockbuster stars in recent cinematic history. However, despite consistently producing hit after hit over the years, the star did not manage to make a billion-dollar movie until 2022.

While Top Gun viewers had to wait 36 years for a sequel, Top Gun: Maverick’s historic box-office haul proves that this long absence from screens did Cruise’s antihero Maverick some good. While Top Gun: Maverick is critically acclaimed, the same can not be said for the more divisive 1986 original, although audiences also enjoyed that as a minor box office success. Because hype was not incredibly high before Top Gun: Maverick's release, the sequel’s box-office performance managed to outdo even the most optimistic financial expectations. As 2022 comes to a close, Top Gun: Maverick has earned almost $1.5 billion worldwide.

Related: Is Top Gun 2’s Box Office Success The End Of 80s Nostalgia?

Why Tom Cruise Can’t Repeat Top Gun 2’s Success With Mission Impossible 7

Top gun maverick 2 Mission impossible 7 tom cruise

After Top Gun: Maverick's runaway financial success, viewers might be anticipating Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One to become the next billion-dollar Tom Cruise movie, but this is unlikely to happen for numerous reasons. For one thing, Top Gun: Maverick is the first Top Gun movie in thirty-six years, whereas the Mission Impossible series has reliably released a new sequel every few years for decades, so will be less of an event.

Another reason is that Top Gun: Maverick benefited from an entirely unexpected and impossible-to-replicate level of hype. Without the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent cinema closures, it is unclear how Top Gun: Maverick would have performed financially if the movie released in mid-2020 as was originally intended. However, two years of release date delays, new trailers, behind-the-scenes gossip, and pure curiosity increased the hype surrounding Top Gun: Maverick. The Top Gun franchise had already left viewers waiting for decades, and since the delays were unavoidable, the hype was generated without viewers becoming frustrated.

Why Top Gun 2’s Success Is Almost Impossible To Repeat

Top gun maverick box office tom cruise miles teller

To repeat Top Gun: Maverick’s box office, a new project would need to benefit from the enthusiastic post-lockdown return to theaters. It is impossible for Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One to replicate Top Gun: Maverick’s ability to bring back reluctant viewers who may have been unsure about returning to the movies until mid-2022. Mission Impossible is also better known among younger audiences, so it has less chance of being a word-of-mouth success like Top Gun: Maverick. There is a good chance, however, that Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One might still make $1 billion.

The box-office returns of the Mission Impossible franchise have been increasing with subsequent installments, with Mission Impossible: Fallout earning $792 million. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One could still earn over $1 billion judging by the growing success of earlier sequels. Top Gun 3 would be better for Tom Cruise’s career than Mission Impossible 9, but the spy series might be better for the actor’s bank account in the short term. However, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One still won’t be able to recreate the impact of Top Gun: Maverick.

More: Top Gun 3 Being Tom Cruise's Decision Is A Good Thing