Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from last weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of November 10 – 12, 2017.
This weekend, Murder on the Orient Express opens in 3,341 theaters and Daddy’s Home 2 premieres in 3,575 locations.
#1 – Thor: Ragnarok
We expect last week’s champ, Thor: Ragnarok (read our review), to repeat in the top spot during its second weekend. The latest installment in the Marvel Cinematic Universe got off to a rousing start during its opening frame, earning an impressive $121 million and reinvigorating the box office after a dormant October. Due to the film’s positive word-of-mouth and widespread appeal, there’s no reason why it can’t stay at #1. The God of Thunder will not face any meaningful competition for the pole position until next week when Justice League premieres, so it has a clear path to victory once more.
#2 – Murder on the Orient Express
Our choice for second is Murder on the Orient Express (read our review), the latest screen adaptation of Agatha Christie’s famous crime novel. Directed by one-time Thor helmsman Kenneth Branagh, the film has assembled an all-star ensemble that includes the likes of Branagh himself, Johnny Depp, Michelle Pfeiffer, Daisy Ridley, Josh Gad, and others. The big names above the line, coupled with the movie’s old school charm and feel, should help it emerge as a nice counter-programming option for those looking for a break from the typical Hollywood tentpoles.
That said, Murder is by no means going to dethrone Thor. Reviews for the film lean on the positive side of the spectrum, though the response has been more mixed than enthusiastic. Additionally, while there are plenty of stars on the marquee, none of them have the commercial prowess to sell a film on their own. Even Depp, who once upon a time was the industry’s most bankable name, has struggled in recent years, so few are going to rush out to see Orient Express solely for him. Projections have Murder pegged for a $26 million opening weekend, which sounds like a reasonable haul.
#3 – Daddy’s Home 2
Coming in third should be Daddy’s Home 2, the sequel to the 2015 comedy hit that held its own against Star Wars: The Force Awakens and earned $150 million domestically during its run. Once again, Mark Wahlberg and Will Ferrell are paired up, but this time they’re joined by Mel Gibson and John Lithgow, as the filmmakers go even bigger with the followup. Paramount smartly placed this one on the schedule at the beginning of the holiday season, as we’re only a couple of weeks away from Thanksgiving. Families looking for something to help them get in the spirit might be inclined to check Daddy’s Home 2 out, especially since there haven’t been many comedies out lately.
However, Daddy’s Home 2 may face an uphill climb. It has earned even worse reviews than its predecessor (which was no critical darling), which will definitely hurt its commercial appeal. There also isn’t much demand for another go-around with these crazy dads, considering the tracking is considerably less than the first film. Whereas Daddy’s Home made $38.7 million in its first three days, the sequel is estimated to make just $22.5 million in the same time period, so audiences aren’t as interested.
#4 – A Bad Moms Christmas
We believe A Bad Moms Christmas will come in fourth, after finishing in second place last week. Much like Daddy’s Home 2, this comedy sequel hasn’t fared as well as the original, opening with less money in its first weekend and failing to impress critics. The fact that it’s a female-led, R-rated comedy should help keep it afloat, as it targets a different demographic from the Wahlberg/Ferrell vehicle. However, business is going to start to decline, and Bad Moms Christmas will have faded from memory well before Santa comes around.
#5 – Jigsaw
Rounding out the top five should be Jigsaw, which came in third last week. Though Halloween is now in the rearview mirror, the horror film will stick around for another week due to the marketplace being extremely top heavy. If there was more competition, Jigsaw would struggle more.
Last Week’s Recap
We said Thor: Ragnarok would make $105 million in its opening weekend.
Thor: Ragnarok earned $121 million in its opening weekend
Next Week: Justice League, Thor: Ragnarok, and more!
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