Thor: Love and Thunder is continuing a not-so-good trend for the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s Phase 4 as it went through a huge box office drop during its second weekend, but should this be something the MCU should be worried about? With the Infinity Saga now over, Thanos defeated, and the original Avengers team no longer around, the MCU is moving forward with new and old characters, new settings, events, and concepts, the main one so far being the multiverse and its many dangers. However, the MCU took a break from the multiverse’s chaos in Thor: Love and Thunder, which reunited the audience with the God of Thunder and other beloved characters.
Set after the events of Avengers: Endgame, Thor: Love and Thunder caught up with Thor as he tried to find inner peace following the Battle of Earth and more, and after spending some time as a ravager with the Guardians of the Galaxy, he was forced to return to action when Gorr the God Butcher (Christian Bale) was on his way to New Asgard to kill more Gods. With the help of Valkyrie (Tessa Thompson) and Korg (Taika Waititi), Thor tracked Gorr down to stop him, and while doing so, he came across Jane Foster (Natalie Portman), who was now the Mighty Thor due to Mjolnir bonding with her as she was dealing with stage four cancer. Thor: Love and Thunder was the big reunion of Jane Foster and Thor, but it hasn’t been as well-received by critics and viewers as Marvel thought it would be.
Thor: Love and Thunder has received mixed reviews, with critics praising its light-hearted nature and the performances of the main cast (particularly those of Bale and Portman), while they have also found the story, inconsistent tone, and sense of humor to be among its biggest weaknesses, labeling it as inferior to Thor: Ragnarok. Although Love and Thunder hasn’t been a box-office disappointment, it hasn’t performed as well as previous MCU movies, and its drop during its second weekend follows a bad Phase 4 trend. So, should Marvel be worried about Thor: Love and Thunder’s box office performance?
Thor: Love & Thunder's Box Office Explained
Thor: Love and Thunder was one of the most anticipated movie releases of 2022, and as such, it was projected to top Thor: Ragnarok during its opening weekend and become the second biggest opening of 2022. Love and Thunder was projected to gross $140-167 million in its opening weekend, and it ended up earning $144.2 million during its first weekend, making it the highest box office opening of the Thor franchise, the 12th largest for the MCU, and the third-largest for 2022 behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Jurassic World Dominion. At the time of writing, Thor: Love and Thunder is the seventh-highest-grossing movie of 2022 so far, right behind Minions: The Rise of Gru, The Battle at Lake Changjin II, and The Batman, even though it went through a box office drop in its second weekend, which might seem worrying for the MCU, especially as Phase 4 hasn’t performed as well as the Infinity Saga did.
Thor: Love & Thunder's Box Office Drop Continues A Phase 4 Trend
Unfortunately for Thor: Love and Thunder, its box office performance is continuing a Phase 4 trend that has ultimately hurt these movies and how they are received by the audience. The MCU has been struggling with the pace and tone of Phase 4 after the massive events of Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame, which set the ground for Phase 4. However, Phase 4, as diverse as it has been so far, has struggled to connect with the audience and it doesn’t seem to be following a clear path in terms of tone and narrative, and all these problems have reflected on the critical and commercial performance of its movies.
So far, almost all Phase 4 movies have seen a big box office drop during their second weekends, starting with Black Widow with a 68% drop, followed by Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness with 67%. Thor: Love and Thunder followed that path with a 68% drop, grossing $46 million during its second weekend on the big screen, and while this didn’t affect its place among the top 10 highest-grossing movies of 2022 (at least not for now), it continues a worrying Phase 4 trend, as the stories aren't connecting with the audience as they used to, and the critics’ opinions have also influenced the way the audience receives a new movie, especially those from Marvel given that the studio set its own bar very high with the movies from the Infinity Saga, especially Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame.
Is Thor: Love & Thunder's Box Office Actually Worrying For Marvel?
Thor: Love and Thunder’s massive box office drop and overall performance isn’t something Marvel should worry about too much, but it does say a lot about how Phase 4’s movies are being received by the audience. Although Phase 4 has seen huge box office drops, these have happened under special circumstances and some movies from this new wave have ended up succeeding at the box office even after going through those rough patches. First off, Black Widow was released simultaneously on Disney+ (through Premier Access) and in theaters after being delayed a couple of times due to the coronavirus pandemic, and that special release plan was ultimately going to impact the movie’s box office performance, yet it broke several pandemic box office records. Black Widow’s box office drop has been attributed to its release on Disney+ Premier Access and many reported piracies of the movie online.
Shang-Chi had a better box office performance, keeping the number one spot during its second and third weekend, and earning a total of $432.2 million. Eternals, despite its mixed reviews, also remained on the number spot during its second weekend and gradually dropped after that, earning a total of $402.1 million. Next was Spider-Man: No Way Home, Phase 4’s biggest success so far, earning a total of almost $2 billion and becoming the highest-grossing movie of 2021, as well as the sixth-highest-grossing movie of all time. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness was also received with mixed reactions from critics and saw a big box office drop during its second weekend, yet it almost earned $1 billion and became the second-highest-grossing movie of 2022. The box office performance of Thor: Love and Thunder shouldn’t be something to worry the people at Marvel as it will surely still make a profit, but the drop is indicative of the lower opinion critics and audiences have of it, and the former usually influences the latter.
How Much Will Thor: Love & Thunder Make (& Will It Be A True Success)?
Even after that huge box office drop, and as seen above with other recent MCU movies, Thor: Love and Thunder can still make a profit, mostly as it seems to have already broken even. A movie needs to earn double its production budget in order to break even, and the budget for Thor: Love and Thunder seems to be between $200-250 million, and at the time of writing, it has earned $498 million. It’s worth noting, however, that Love and Thunder might struggle a bit more as it doesn’t have a release date in China yet, which is a major box office territory, and due to certain themes and scenes in the movie, it might skip a Chinese release. Thor: Love and Thunder has already surpassed most box office predictions that placed it at $320-330 million, and while it seems unlikely that it will come close to reaching $1 billion, like Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness did, Thor: Love and Thunder is on its way to being a success to Marvel, but its bumpy journey at the box office should give the studio a lot to think about when it comes to where they are taking the MCU, the tone, and the narrative of Phase 4, which still has a couple of movies coming up.
