Box Office Prediction: The Martian vs. The Walk

The Martian vs. The Walk

Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend -- to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week's box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from The Martian's opening weekend -- and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of October 9 - 11, 2015.

This weekend, The Walk expands nationwide and Pan receives a wide release. Steve Jobs opens in select locations in New York and Los Angeles, ahead of its October 23 expansion.


#1 - The Martian

Look for last week's champ, The Martian (read our review), to finish in the top spot again this week. Ridley Scott's latest came very close to breaking the October opening record by posting an impressive $54.3 million over its first three days. The film has been the beneficiary of some stellar word-of-mouth, as it's won critics and audiences over. That factor should ensure it holds well in its second weekend, especially since there isn't that much competition for it currently playing (the marketplace was in the middle of a two-month down period). Between its reception as a highly entertaining film and the need to see it on the big screen, The Martian should have another fruitful weekend.

Matt Damon in The Martian (2015)

#2 - The Walk

Our pick for second is The Walk (read our review), which played last week in a limited IMAX-only release. There, it made $1.5 million in 448 locations for a $3,483 per theater average. On Friday, it will expand nationwide and it should play well for a mass audience. Like The Martian, The Walk has generated positive reviews for being a light-hearted, fun adventure, which will help it gain appeal. The film also features the likable Joseph Gordon-Levitt in a leading role and is based on a remarkable true story that will interest several moviegoers.

The Walk is also going to emerge as a a movie that demands to be seen on the largest of screens. Director Robert Zemeckis incorporated 3D for the project's high-wire walking sequences, and that element has generated raves for being impeccably crafted. Moviegoers looking for a big-screen experience may decide to check this one out, since The Walk seems to have been made for the movie theater.

#3 - Hotel Transylvania 2

Coming in third should be Hotel Transylvania 2 (read our review). The animated sequel has performed well during its first two weeks, and its domestic total is up to $90.7 million. As we get closer to Halloween, there will be a good amount of interest (especially among the juice-box crowd) to see this one, so it likely will continue to draw in decent-sized audiences.

Adam Sandler as Dracula and Selena Gomez as Mavis in Hotel Transylvania 2

#4 - Pan

Our choice for fourth is Pan, the new fantasy film that serves as an origin story for the classic Peter Pan fairy tale. The film comes from popular source material and features some big names in its cast (like Hugh Jackman), but those elements don't appear to be helping it generate buzz. Projections currently have it on track for a $16 million opening weekend, which is hardly what Warner Bros. is hoping for from their massive ($150+ million) investment. Those figures won't be aided by the early reviews, which are mainly mixed to negative. It looks like a flashy, fun spectacle for the family, but there are many other options to choose from.

#5 - Sicario

Rounding out the top five should be Sicario (read our review), which came in third last week with $12.1 million. The crime drama doesn't have the mass appeal of some of the other films playing, but it's doing fine on its own and should continue to draw in adult audiences looking for a heady thriller this fall.

Last Week's Recap

Our Picks:

  1. The Martian
  2. Hotel Transylvania 2
  3. Sicario
  4. The Intern
  5. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials


  1. The Martian
  2. Hotel Transylvania 2
  3. Sicario
  4. The Intern
  5. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials

Next Week: Bridge of SpiesCrimson Peak, and more!

Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule) and Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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