Box Office Prediction: The Martian vs. Goosebumps

The Martian vs. Goosebumps

Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend -- to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week's box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Pan's opening weekend -- and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of October 16 - 18, 2015.

This weekend, Goosebumps opens in 3,300 theaters, Bridge of Spies debuts in 2,800 theaters, and Crimson Peak also plays in 2,800 locations.


#1 - Goosebumps

Our pick for the top spot this week is Goosebumps, which is based on the famous series of children's horror books by R.L. Stine. Instead of merely adapting one of the author's stories for a film, the movie features an amalgamation of some of his most famous creations, who break free of their transcript trappings and wreck havoc around the world. It's a fun Night at the Museum type setup that should play well for audiences, especially considering the early reviews have been positive. It seems to be a rollicking good time for families - and with Halloween just a few weeks away, interest should be high.

While Goosebumps isn't expected to break any records, it should emerge as a commercially viable endeavor. Early tracking indicates an opening weekend in the $24 million range, which should only improve if word-of-mouth remains this high. It's true that Jack Black is not exactly box office gold, but the popularity of the source material and seeing something that's delightfully spooky for the upcoming holiday should be enough to catapult it to number one.

Goosebumps Jack Black Dylan Minnette

#2 - The Martian

Look for the two-time defending champ, The Martian (read our review), to slide to second in its third weekend. The sci-fi film has performed extremely well during its run so far, bringing in $108.7 million domestically to this point. Thanks to the film's universally positive reviews (and quiet Oscar buzz), there's been a lot of interest in seeing Ridley Scott's latest, and that shouldn't really change. What might prevent a three-peat is the glut of newcomers that will attract audiences of their own, taking away bits and pieces of The Martian's audience (which was widespread). Still, it should be another successful weekend for astronaut Mark Watney.

#3 - Bridge of Spies

Coming in third should be Bridge of Spies, the new Cold War thriller starring Tom Hanks from director Steven Spielberg. The iconic filmmaker isn't quite the box office titan he once was, when every movie he made was a contender for highest-grossing film of all-time. Still, his name continues to bring in a crowd, as his last film, Lincoln, made $182.2 million when it was released in 2012. There's no reason to think Bridge of Spies can't be another hit under Spielberg's belt, as it has several factors working in its favor.

Hanks remains a box office draw; his last starring vehicle was Captain Phillips in 2013 and that made $107.1 million while competing with Gravity. Also, the early reviews have been extremely positive, with some pundits going as far as to say this is Spielberg's best film since Saving Private Ryan. It doesn't hurt that Bridge of Spies has been pegged as an Oscar contender from the moment it was green lit - and now that it looks like it's going to deliver on that hype, adult viewers will be interested in seeing what Spielberg has in store. Projections are currently at $16 million for the first three days.

Tom Hanks from Steven Spielberg's Bridge of Spies

#4 - Crimson Peak

Our pick for fourth is Crimson Peak, the new horror film from fan-favorite director Guillermo del Toro. The filmmaker has his fair share of admirers, but that doesn't always mean his movies will break the bank. His biggest film in his career happens to be 2013's Pacific Rim, but that big-budget endeavor had a slow climb to $100 million domestically. Crimson Peak could be more of the same. Although it features big names like Tom Hiddleston and Jessica Chastain, analysts aren't expecting much of it during its opening weekend. Tracking suggests something around $14 million, which would be one of his lower debuts. Hopefully, moviegoers are in the mood for something scary and come out to support it.

#5 - Pan

Rounding out the top five should be Pan (read our review), which flopped in its opening weekend with $15.5 million. The fantasy adventure film isn't very appealing for audiences, and with so much more playing right now, it will begin a fall down the charts.

Last Week's Recap

Our Picks:

  1. The Martian
  2. The Walk
  3. Hotel Transylvania 2
  4. Pan
  5. Sicario


  1. The Martian
  2. Hotel Transylvania 2
  3. Pan
  4. The Intern
  5. Sicario

Next Week: The MartianGoosebumps, Steve Jobs, and more!

Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule) and Box Office [1], [2], [3] (Opening Weekend Projections)

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