The upcoming Matt Reeves film, The Batman, is sure to avoid the box office failure of Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. Although it was the first film to unite three of DC Comics’ most iconic superheroes, Dawn of Justice was a divisive film, polarizing fans and film critics alike. This may have been why the film, despite its strong opening weekend and pre-ticket sales, had such a significant box office drop in its second weekend. The Batman, on the other hand, is a highly-anticipated reboot of the iconic superhero that looks to succeed where the DCEU crossover film failed in terms of box office performance and reception.
Following 2013’s Man of Steel, the DCEU’s first installment and a similarly divisive superhero film, Dawn of Justice introduced a new iteration of Batman, played by Ben Affleck. While Dawn of Justice had a mixed reception among viewers and critics, Affleck’s performance as the Dark Knight was among the film’s most consistently-praised elements, with Affleck depicting a compelling and extremely comic-accurate version of both Bruce Wayne and Batman. Dawn of Justice set up several sequel and spinoff movies, such as Wonder Woman, Justice League, and, for a time, a solo movie for Ben Affleck’s DCEU Batman. The story of Affleck’s Batman film was heavily teased at the end of Zack Snyder’s Justice League, which featured the debut of the DCEU’s Deathstroke learning Batman’s secret identity from Lex Luthor.
Unfortunately, 2017’s theatrical version of Justice League was astoundingly underwhelming and the film’s infamously troubled production caused Affleck to lose interest in the role of Batman, leading the proposed film to be canceled. In its place, the Matt Reeves film, The Batman, began development, with Robert Pattinson taking the role of the Dark Knight. The Batman is not set in the DCEU and is intended to initiate both a new trilogy of Batman movies and a new shared universe. Ben Affleck’s iteration of Batman, meanwhile, appears to be transitioning out of the DCEU, likely being replaced by Michael Keaton’s version of Batman, who may become a resident of an alternate reality in the upcoming film The Flash.
Batman V Superman's Box Office Disappointed Massively
Having earned well over $800 million worldwide, it’s difficult to see Dawn of Justice as a box office failure, but the Marvel Cinematic Universe and Star Wars franchises significantly raised the standards for what constitutes a box office success. 2012’s The Avengers earned over $1.5 billion worldwide, while its sequel, Avengers: Age of Ultron, earned slightly less at around $1.4 billion. This, coupled with Age of Ultron’s mixed critical reception, reportedly rendered it a “disappointment” at Disney due to its comparably more successful predecessor. This is indicative of a shifting definition of a box office “success,” as Sony Pictures’ The Amazing Spider-Man 2 was considered a failure, despite earning over $700 million worldwide.
Many viewers consider $1 billion in worldwide earnings to be the minimum required for a box office success, and considering the hype surrounding Dawn of Justice, the film should have crossed this threshold. The film featured the historic meeting of three iconic characters whose popularity went well beyond the superhero genre, and early ticket sales exceeding that of The Avengers. Seemingly on track to a successful box office performance, Dawn of Justice earned over $400 million in its opening weekend. The film, surprisingly, dropped over 81% in box office earnings in the second weekend, contributing to its failure to cross the $1 billion threshold, though the film reportedly broke even.
What No Way Home's Success Means For The Batman
While the covid-19 pandemic has been harmful to the film industry, the MCU’s latest film, Spider-Man: No Way Home, has been a massive critical and commercial success, grossing over $1 billion within a month of its theatrical run. The film was among the MCU’s most anticipated installments, featuring the return of supervillains from the two previous Spider-Man franchises, as well as the two previous Spider-Man actors themselves (whose inclusion was considered one of the film industry’s worst-kept secrets). Despite the covid-19 pandemic roaring back due to variants, No Way Home became the first film since Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker to gross over $1 billion. No Way Home proved that, even in the pandemic, a film can be successful, if viewers are excited enough for it.
The Batman is highly-anticipated by casual viewers and fans alike for completely different reasons than Dawn of Justice. While the DCEU’s second installment promised a strong impact on its franchise and plethora of DC superhero cameos (all of which it made good on), The Batman’s hype has more to do with its quality. Batman may be a pop culture icon, but yet another Batman solo movie reboot is nothing new, for better or worse. The Batman’s appeal is more geared towards the film’s quality, particularly Robert Pattinson’s performance as both Batman and Bruce Wayne. The film's appeal is also focused on the fact that Matt Reeves’ directorial attempt at this world is a dark, emotional, and realistic new take on the iconic Batman mythos.
The Batman's Box Office Prediction: How Will It Perform?
The covid-19 pandemic makes box office performances unpredictable, even with No Way Home’s pre-pandemic performance. Despite this, the sheer excitement for Matt Reeves’ unique version of the Dark Knight bodes well for The Batman. The film looks to have more in common with Christopher Nolan’s realistic take on Batman in the Dark Knight Trilogy than the more comic book inspired DCEU version, with Pattinson’s Batman emphasizing the character’s trademark detective work and a new iteration of The Riddler who takes inspiration from real-life serial killers. The Batman will almost certainly break even, and despite the pandemic resurgence, the film will likely exceed the $1 billion threshold for Warner Bros.
What If The Batman Flops?
Given the unpredictability of the Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on the film industry, the aggressive new variant, and subsequent safety concerns with visiting movie theaters, there is a chance that there will be a significant impact on The Batman’s planned March 2022 release. If not for the pandemic, The Batman would be near-guaranteed to cross the $1 billion threshold, but should it “flop” by today’s standards, it seems unlikely that it’d halt any of WB’s plans for sequels and spinoff TV shows since it’d be attributed to covid-19 rather than the film itself. The Batman looks to have far more financial longevity than Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, and it will likely succeed the divisive 2016 film in box office performance.
