Terminator: Dark Fate is the latest high-profile release of 2019, but how much did it cost to make? Since experiencing the incredible highs of Terminator 2: Judgment Day (which was the top grossing movie of 1991), the franchise has struggled, to say the least. The three installments that were released since saw diminishing returns, and things reached an all-time low with 2015's Terminator Genisys. That film made a paltry $89.7 million domestically, and even a healthy boost from the international markets couldn't salvage its underwhelming performance. The hope was Genisys could launch a new trilogy, but the sequels were scrapped.
Paramount is once again looking to the Terminator property for a hit, this time in the form of Terminator: Dark Fate. The legacy sequel (which is a direct followup to Judgment Day and ignores the previous three films), sees series icons James Cameron and Linda Hamilton return, giving fans reason to be hopeful this time around. Fortunately, it looks like Dark Fate gets the franchise back on track, critically speaking. The jury is still out on the box office haul, and the studio is definitely hoping Dark Fate can turn a pretty penny.
The Terminator: Dark Fate budget is reportedly $185 million, which is on the high-end for a studio tentpole. Dark Fate is more expensive than Genisys ($155-158 million), and even MCU installments like Captain Marvel (around $152 million) and Spider-Man: Far From Home (around $160 million). Going by the general rule of thumb, Dark Fate will need to earn approximately $370 million globally just to make its money back.
That figure is doable (Genisys, after all, made $440 million worldwide), but it's still surprising there was this much of an investment made in a new Terminator film. As stated above, the franchise has lost a lot of its drawing power since its 1990s heyday, and Dark Fate is most definitely not a box office lock on the level of the latest Marvel movie. In fact, early Dark Fate box office projections are soft, pegging the film for a domestic debut between $35-45 million. There's a chance it surpasses those expectations (especially since word-of-mouth has been solid), but that estimated range is a far cry from the year's highest openings. Even $45 million wouldn't be enough to top commercial disappointment The Secret Life of Pets 2 ($46.6 million).
One thing Dark Fate has working in its favor is it isn't facing much competition right now. This week's other new releases, like Harriet and Motherless Brooklyn, are arriving with minimal buzz, so odds are Terminator will win the weekend. But November has several other high-profile films on the horizon, like Doctor Sleep, Ford v Ferrari, and Frozen II, so Dark Fate isn't going to be the #1 film of choice for long. It'll need strong legs in order to turn a profit for the studio, and there's no guarantee that's going to happen. Paramount could be left wishing they had kept things a little more cost-effective in their latest attempt at a Terminator revival.
