Tenet and Mulan are expected to have lower box office openings than normal should movie theaters reopen in July. The latter was one of the many upcoming Hollywood projects affected by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Initially slated to come out in late March, Disney had no choice but to delay Mulan's premiere when the COVID-19 outbreak took a turn for the worse. In contrast, Christopher Nolan's Tenet is essentially the lone summer 2020 film to hold on to its original release date through the health crisis. Warner Bros. plans on debuting it in mid-July, around the time theater chains are hoping it's safe to reopen.
It goes without saying the entertainment industry will be feeling the coronavirus impact for years to come (see: the recent AMC/Universal feud), meaning Hollywood will have to adapt to a new normal once business operations resume. Especially early on, when theaters first reopen, there will most definitely be guidelines in place to limit attendance to keep moviegoers at a safe social distance from one another. Restrictions like that are going to lead to soft box office openings, but the hope is any film that comes out in late summer will have strong legs.
Speaking with Variety, NATO's John Fithian addressed the box office prospects of titles like Tenet and Mulan, which will be first out of the gate should theaters reopen in July. While he acknowledged both movies will likely have to settle for less in their opening weekend than originally anticipated, they have a great opportunity to make up for that by having lengthy runs thanks to minimal competition and the precautions theaters take to keep people safe:
They will play a lot longer in theaters than they would have a year ago. They won’t open to the kind of numbers they would have a year ago, but there’s going to be tremendous word-of-mouth. People are going to love “Tenet” and share that on social media, but they’re also going to talk about how impressed they are with how seriously theaters are taking their responsibility to provide a safe environment. These films will also have staying power because people will be so sick of being stuck in their houses that they’re going to flood to cinemas.
Fithian makes some solid points. If Tenet and Mulan are able to come out in July, they won't be dealing with lingering holdovers at the multiplex. It'll be a rather unprecedented situation where they'll virtually be the only two films in town, meaning they can play on more screens than usual (which theoretically will balance out the per auditorium attendance limits). Both will also run unopposed at the box office for a number of weeks, before Wonder Woman 1984 and A Quiet Place Part II debut in August and September, respectively. Of course, it's important to keep in mind studies have shown people will be leery of attending mass public gatherings (like movie screenings) once stay-at-home orders are lifted. So, it remains to be seen if viewers will indeed "flood to cinemas" or take a more guarded approach. Depending on what happens there, that could have an effect on commercial performance.
Obviously, this is all assuming Tenet and Mulan hit their release dates. While some states (like Georgia) are allowing businesses to reopen, others are being much more careful. For instance, California said it'll probably be months before their theaters reopen. The status of theaters in the United States and around the world will be a determining factor in when studios choose to release new movies. Big-budget projects like Tenet and Mulan are dependent on strong box office grosses to earn a profit, meaning unless studios are guaranteed their films will be seen by the largest audience possible, they'll likely hold off for a later time. If theaters in California and New York are still closed come July, it wouldn't make financial sense to release these tentpoles.
Source: Variety
