A Hollywood studio insider believes if Tenet's release is delayed, no new movies will come out until Christmas 2020. Back in early March, right before the ongoing coronavirus pandemic took a turn for the worse, No Time to Die became the first major film to be pushed back in response to the health crisis. Since then, several other high-profile titles have followed suit, with others making the bold move to go straight to VOD. The lone outlier through all of this has been Christopher Nolan's Tenet, which is currently poised to be the big event movie post-pandemic.
Tenet is scheduled to come out in mid-July, around the time theaters are hoping it will be safe to reopen. Of course, there's no guarantee it will be able to premiere as planned, particularly if theaters in major markets like New York and Los Angeles are still closed come July (which, unfortunately, is a realistic possibility). Should Warner Bros. be forced into ultimately postponing Tenet, it's thought that would have massive ramifications throughout the entire industry.
In the Washington Post's coverage on Tenet's upcoming release, an anonymous studio executive discussed the fallout that would ensue if Nolan's latest gets pushed back. They paint a very bleak picture in which there would be no new theatrical releases until the holiday season:
“If Tenet doesn’t come out or doesn’t succeed, every other company goes home. It’s no movies until Christmas.”
The mention of Tenet's prospective commercial performance is interesting. Before the coronavirus pandemic, Nolan was a force at the box office, routinely posting strong numbers. His name is a huge draw for viewers, which is why Tenet makes sense as the first major release after the shutdowns. However, given the current climate, it's impossible to predict how well Tenet will do should theaters be open. It's true viewers are looking forward to getting back to the multiplex and seeing a new blockbuster on the big screen, but studies have also shown people will be leery of attending mass public gatherings (such as movie screenings) in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic. That, combined with social distancing regulations in place at theaters, will limit the amount of money movies can make. Even with limited competition, the numbers may not be very desirable for studios - especially for a $200+ million investment like Tenet. Movies like that need to post big figures to turn a profit.
If Tenet either moves out of its July window or flops, studios will take that as a sign theaters still aren't safe and adjust their slates accordingly. In either scenario, it wouldn't make sense for Wonder Woman 1984 to come out in early August or A Quiet Place Part II to debut in September. Should Tenet open, it will be a litmus test for the whole industry, and everyone will be watching. That's an unenviable position for any movie to be in, which makes WB's ultimate decision a very tough call. As much as they'd like to have the first tentpole to welcome audiences back, they also don't want to take a heavy loss on Tenet. It'll be very fascinating to see how this pans out.
Source: Washington Post
