Tenet is finally open in theaters worldwide, but is its early box office performance a success or failure? The latest from director Christopher Nolan, Tenet was originally positioned as one of this summer's biggest tentpoles. However, it had its release date delayed multiple times due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Tenet ultimately premiered internationally in late August, followed by a U.S. debut (in markets where theaters are open) in early September.
Given Nolan's pedigree and Tenet's grand spectacle, it was long seen as the film that could save movie theaters. Exhibitors have been hit very hard during the pandemic, and were banking on Tenet to provide a much-needed boost for business. This was the first real litmus test to gauge how willing audiences are to see new releases on the big screen amidst a health crisis. There's a lot riding on Tenet's box office, since there are numerous other movies looking to come out later in the year.
Tenet may have exceeded low expectations internationally, but it still has a long way to go before it breaks even - let alone turn a profit for Warner Bros. Obviously, the circumstances surrounding Tenet's release are unprecedented, which makes analyzing its box office performance more difficult than usual. Still, many are wondering if the film will go down as a success or failure.
Note: All box office figures as of September 7, 2020.
Tenet's Box Office Performance So Far
Tenet made $53 million in its international debut, followed by $20.2 million in its first three days domestically. The global total currently stands at $146.2 million, already making it the sixth highest-grossing film worldwide this year. Domestically, it appears to be performing within expectations; early estimates pegged it for $24.5 million over the 4-day Labor Day weekend. That is the highest opening weekend since movie theaters reopened.
Particularly when discussing Tenet's U.S. gross, it's important to note theaters in the country remain closed in key markets, such as New York and parts of California. It's unknown when those venues will reopen, which certainly impacts the amount of money Tenet can make at this time. If theaters in these major cities are able to get up and running at some point in the near future, that will benefit Tenet's bottom line.
What Tenet Should Have Made At The Box Office (In An Ideal World)
It goes without saying Tenet's actual numbers are a far cry from what most would have anticipated back in January 2020. Over the course of his career, Nolan has emerged as one of the few filmmakers who can sell audiences on any concept with just his name. There's a reason why WB approved a $200 million production budget for Tenet. At the time the project was green lit, nobody could have predicted a global pandemic that would throw the 2020 movie release calendar into chaos. In a world where the COVID-19 outbreak never happened, Tenet would have been one of the biggest films of the summer.
The fairest comparisons for Tenet are most likely Inception and Interstellar, Nolan's other mind-bending original genre films. His World War II film, Dunkirk, was also released in Tenet's original mid-July window. All of these movies proved to be very successful at the box office. Inception earned $869.8 globally, Interstellar brought in $693.4 million, and Dunkirk grossed $525.2 million. That range is most likely the rough ballpark of what Tenet was looking at prior to the pandemic, and it stood a good chance of approaching Inception's total considering its summer date and the sci-fi elements. In terms of domestic opening weekends, Inception grossed $62.7 million, Dunkirk $50.5 million, and Interstellar $47.5 million. It wouldn't be a stretch to say Tenet could have grossed $55-60 million in its opening weekend in a normal year, perhaps more thanks to inflation.
What Tenet Needs to Qualify As A Success Now
Under the current circumstances, it's very difficult to judge a film's box office performance. There are too many variables at play. Even in areas where theaters are open, there are limits on attendance and some people are choosing to not go to the theater any time soon. The pandemic remains a very serious issue (particularly in the U.S.), plus there's no timetable for more theaters reopening. Under the new normal, it would be impressive if Tenet was able to end its run between $300-400 million globally, especially if New York and Los Angeles theaters remain closed for an extended period of time. Without those major markets to rely on, Tenet will face an uphill climb every weekend.
A movie grossing $400 million worldwide during a pandemic sounds great on paper, but Tenet's standards for being a success are very high given its $200 million production budget. Tenet needs to make $500 million just to break even. That figure is not as large as the previously reported $800 million, but it's still a tall order in the post-COVID era. For context, that $500 million is what WB needs just to recoup their pricey investment, so Tenet has to go well beyond that mark in order to make a profit. It seems extremely unlikely that will happen, meaning WB needs to adjust what they consider to be a success. As evidenced by the studio asking for a greater percentage of Tenet ticket sales, they understood the film had low box office prospects as they moved forward with the release. It will be interesting to keep tabs on WB's response to Tenet's performance.
Is Tenet A Box Office Failure?
The hard figure of a $20.2 million debut (from 2,810 theaters) for a $200 million tentpole isn't great - even by the new reality's standards. It's a sign WB is set to lose a considerable amount of money on Tenet. Genre tentpoles like this tend to be front-loaded, and steadily decline each weekend over the course of their runs. Particularly if theaters in major U.S. markets remain closed, it's plausible $20.2 million will be the most Tenet makes in a single weekend, which would be disappointing for WB. The film industry is a business, and it's not a feasible strategy to continuously lose money on blockbusters. For that reason, the studio may still delay Wonder Woman 1984 and Dune's scheduled 2020 releases until next year, when it ideally will be safer to go to the movie theater.
WB will be hoping the severe lack of competition will give Tenet strong legs, and the second weekend numbers will be a good indication of that. However, even if Tenet holds well, that probably isn't going to be enough to statistically make it a box office success. Given the circumstances, it's a bit harsh to call Tenet a bomb in the traditional sense (a la Dolittle earlier this year) since it clearly did not have the traditional release envisioned eight months ago. WB is trying to make the best of a situation that was out of their control, earning what they can from theaters before Tenet hits home media (where it should be a big draw). Still, this relatively underwhelming performance may give studio executives pause when it comes to theatrical releases they have planned for the fall and winter. Scoring a healthy gross by COVID-19 standards isn't going to be good enough for $150-200 million blockbusters that were made before the pandemic threw Hollywood into a state of flux. People are still interested in going to the theater amidst the pandemic, but not enough for this model to be truly sustainable.