Around the merge episode of Survivor, the winner of the season starts to come into focus. The winner generally is given a good share of screen time, since the story of the season is often told through the lens of explaining why they were able to win their season. There have been a few exceptions — season 38 gave the audience no indication Chris Underwood would win, since he returned from Edge of Extinction in the finale after being voted out third. And season 32 was a shock to many as well because the show told the story more from the perspective of why Aubry Bracco lost rather than why Michele Fitzgerald won.
Nonetheless, Survivor has a repeatable enough formula in editing the winner to where it isn't always predictable — many were surprised when David Wright fell short of final tribal in Millennials vs. Gen X — but it generally comes down to only a handful of possibilities once the merge begins.
There are online communities who dive deep into the weeds on why certain players will win based on confessional count and types of confessionals they give to the camera, how they are portrayed, etc. This article isn't that. Here, we'll discuss why these three players have a strong chance to win in this twist-filled season, and who is most likely to be the next Sole Survivor based on edit alone.
Shan Smith
Shan has been the leader in the clubhouse throughout most of the season. She played one of the best pre-merge games in history, in part because she attended four tribal councils in which her tribe was whittled down from six to two. She was the most present player on our screens for two reasons: she is a phenomenal storyteller, and she was central to much of the action. In this past episode, however, she faded to the background just a tad as some other gamers rose to the forefront. While it remains a possibility she still wins, Pastor Shan's edit makes more sense as a Fallen Angel, which is the position right before the Final 3. These players, in the past, have either been relatively invisible—think Kara Kay in David vs. Goliath—or uber-present—like Rick Devens in Edge of Extinction. Shan's edit may be a case of Devens-itis (a take we've gotten wrong before), but on the bright side, she'll be first on a long list of potential returnees from season 41.
Deshawn Radden
Deshawn had a strong pre-merge edit, appearing to drive most of the strategy on Luvu even though they never went to tribal council. That momentum continued in the merge, where he was a focal point of the plot to oust former ally Sydney from the game. He's positioned himself in what appears to be the alliance that will make it to the end, along with Danny McCray, Liana Wallace and Shan, though there's a lot that still needs to happen for that to take place. It seems like Deshawn is destined to make the final three and get the second-most votes, but there's one contestant who is likely going to best him.
Liana Wallace
Liana misplayed the Knowledge Is Power advantage in this episode, and that may be reason to doubt her. That would be a mistake. She was central to the action at Yase and played a big role in the merge episode. While she may have lost favor with Evvie, Xander and Tiffany, Liana's new cross-tribal four-person alliance appears to be going the distance. Liana gave a confessional about winning the game this past episode and opened an earlier episode about the emotional toll of trying to make the right decision at tribal. She is in the best position edit-wise to win, and if it happens, she'll break a ton of winless streaks considering her age, gender and race.
Survivor airs Wednesdays at 8pm EST on CBS.