Early Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker box office predictions are in line with the first Force Awakens opening weekend projections from 2015. The franchise is coming off its first commercial bomb in last year's Solo, which earned just $392.9 million worldwide. Despite that, Disney's Star Wars renaissance has been very successful. The four movies released to date have brought in more than $4 billion globally combined, and three of them ended their theatrical runs as the highest-grossing film of the year, domestically. Not so coincidentally, those were the three that also came out in December, over the holiday season.
With The Rise of Skywalker also debuting in December, the expectation is the sequel trilogy finale will be a return to form for the franchise, from a box office perspective. Disney is now in the homestretch of marketing, releasing the final trailer earlier this month. The preview seems to have landed with the intended effect, as The Rise of Skywalker is already breaking advanced ticket sales records on Atom Tickets and Fandango. However, the earliest opening weekend projections might seem a bit low to some, but they actually aren't too dissimilar from The Force Awakens.
Per Box Office Pro, the range for The Rise of Skywalker's first weekend is between $185 - 225 million domestically. That means at this point in time, there's a better chance Star Wars 9 opens lower than The Last Jedi ($220 million) than not, but it's important to keep something else in mind. The earliest Force Awakens projections pegged the film for a debut between $185 - 210 million, and instead it broke the all-time record with $247.9 million.
Whenever something like this comes up, it's worth remembering box office predictions are not an exact science. A few 2019 blockbusters (including Captain Marvel, Avengers: Endgame, and Joker) all surpassed expectations during their respective opening weekends. A lot can change (and probably will) between now and The Rise of Skywalker's December debut. Obviously, these figures do not take word-of-mouth into consideration; if the consensus is the film serves as a triumphant and thrilling end to the Skywalker saga, then the projections will likely improve. The estimates also came out before the inevitable influx of television spots that will air in November and December, continuously raising hype levels over the next several weeks. It wouldn't be out of the question for The Rise of Skywalker to exceed the early predictions; traditionally, the third installment of a Star Wars trilogy earns more than the second entry, but less than the first.
At the same time, The Rise of Skywalker is not exactly running unopposed at the holiday box office this year. Sony is opening Jumanji: The Next Level the week before, and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle more than held its own against The Last Jedi back in 2017, becoming Sony's highest-grossing film ever at the time ($404.5 million domestically). Of course, there were more than enough dollars available for both to co-exist, so there isn't any reason to think one is going to completely overshadow the other this time. Still, The Rise of Skywalker will be facing tough competition, so it'll be interesting to see how the projections evolve over the next couple of months.
Source: Box Office Pro
