Spider-Man: Homecoming is tracking to make somewhere in the (friendly) neighborhood of $100 million domestically in its opening weekend. Following his impressive debut as Peter Parker/Spider-Man in Captain America: Civil War, Tom Holland is about to go solo with his own Spider-Man movie on July 7.
Initially, Holland will be facing two big challenges: First, if audiences will finally see how well the actor can carry an entire film in comparison to his webslinging predecessors, Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield; and whether Spider-Man: Homecoming can somehow approach the opening weekend successes of Sam Raimi's first Spider-Man movie, which made $114.8 in its opening frame domestically in 2002. The new Spidey, helmed by Jon Watts, certainly won't have to worry about beating Marc Webb's first chapter of The Amazing Spider-Man, which only made $62 million in its three-day domestic opening in 2012.
By all indications, Spider-Man's homecoming to the Marvel Cinematic Universe and his first solo movie for Marvel Studios appears like it will be more akin to Raimi's debut Spidey film. Citing industry tracking numbers and not Sony Picture's estimates, Deadline reports that the film will likely make anywhere from $90 million to $108 million domestically in its opening frame July 7-9.
If those numbers hold up, it will not only mark a favorable start for Marvel Studios/Sony's partnership for the character, but a welcome boost for the domestic box office this summer. Apart from Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2's $145 million opening in the first weekend of May, and Wonder Woman's $100 million opening in the first weekend in June, the domestic box office has had its share of struggles over the summer. Among the biggest misses were the anemic openings of King Arthur: Legend of the Sword at $14.7 million and The Mummy at $30 million -- both far below their production costs.
As for this week, Cars 3 is expected to knock Wonder Woman out of the top domestic slot after two weeks, yet doesn't promise to give the box office a big boost since it is only tracking to make in the high $50 million to low $60 million range.
Boosting Spider-Man: Homecoming's prospects, of course is not so much because of Holland's involvement, or even Oscar-nominee and superhero movie alum Michael Keaton as The Vulture; but the inclusion of Robert Downey Jr. as Iron Man/Tony Stark. Downey is clearly the most valuable asset of the MCU, and no doubt his appeal played a large part in the record-shattering $207.4 domestic opening weekend for The Avengers in 2012.
And while Spider-Man: Homecoming looks to only make half of what The Avengers did, the stakes don't appear to be quite as high. The Avengers' production budget was $220 million, while Spider-Man: Homecoming, Deadline says, was budgeted in the upper $100 million range. No matter how much Spider-Man: Homecoming eventually takes in, Marvel Studios appears to be invested in the character for the long haul, since Holland inadvertently broke the news this week that a trilogy of Spidey films is being planned for the MCU.