Solo: A Star Wars Story finally gets some good news in regards to the box office, as the latest projections have it earning more than $60 million in its second weekend. There was a point in time when the Star Wars spinoff was expected to shatter the 4-day Memorial Day weekend record, but those estimates were way off. Solo landed with a soft $103 million over the holiday frame (still good enough for the best Memorial Day haul in four years), which was a troubling development since the film is the most expensive Lucasfilm production, due to Ron Howard's extensive reshoots that encompassed about 80 percent of the final product.
If there was a silver lining for Solo to hold on to, it's that there aren't any new tentpoles opening until Pixar's Incredibles 2 in mid-June, meaning it isn't set to face any new high-profile competition for the next few weeks. That, combined with the relatively positive word-of-mouth, gave some hope that Solo would be able to rebound with strong legs. As it turns out, that possibility is very much on the table.
According to THR, projections point to Solo grossing $60+ million this weekend, which would be an incredible hold. Just yesterday, estimates suggested it would only make about $30-33 million in its second weekend, so the newest numbers are quite a jump. If Solo were to earn $60 million or more, it would see a sub-30 percent drop-off from its debut, giving it nice momentum as we make our way into June.
Though Solo earned the lowest professional reviews of the four Star Wars movies in the Disney era, general audiences seem to like what they're seeing. Anyone who's been following Howard on Twitter the past week know that fan reactions to the spinoff are encouraging. Several people have already seen Solo multiple times in theaters, so it's feasible for Solo to draw in sizable crowds this weekend. Many viewers were skeptical of the project's prospects for a variety of reasons, but now that the consensus is that Solo is a fun heist film (and not the train wreck several feared), those who didn't go rushing out on opening night may be more inclined to check it out on the big screen and see what they think.
Solo needs all the help it can get commercially, seeing that its break even point is a whopping $500 million worldwide. Lucasfilm did themselves no favors by waiting so long to pull the plug on original directors Phil Lord & Chris Miller, but there's still an outside chance Solo doesn't lose money (especially when home media sales kick in). For the time being, it's best to not tell Han the odds and see how things play out.
- Solo: A Star Wars Story (2018) release date: May 25, 2018
- Star Wars 9 / Star Wars: Episode IX (2019) release date: Dec 20, 2019