Box Office Prediction: 'San Andreas' vs. 'Spy'

San Andreas vs. Spy

Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend - to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week's box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from San Andreas' opening weekend - and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of June 5 - 7, 2015.

This weekend, EntourageSpy, and Insidious: Chapter 3 all open nationwide. In limited release, Love & Mercy and Testament of Youth come out.


#1 - Spy

Our pick for the top spot this week is the new action/comedy Spy, which stars Melissa McCarthy. Her hot streak hit a bit of a speed bump last summer when Tammy made $84.5 million for its domestic run, which was a far cry from her previous starring vehicles. Luckily for her, she's re-teaming with director Paul Feig, with whom she has had great success before. The two collaborated on hits such as Bridesmaids ($169.1 million) and The Heat ($159.5 million) in the past, so audiences agree that this is a winning combination.

Spy should be more of the same for the dynamic duo. Analysts project it will bring in $43 million during its first three days, which is a higher total than The Heat saw a couple of summers ago. Not only is the talent behind it appealing, Spy is also generating very positive early reviews, which will encourage casual moviegoers to check this one out. It's been a while since we had a strong comedy hit, and Spy is poised to be one of the breakout hits of the season.

Melissa McCarthy in Spy

#2 - San Andreas

Look for last week's champ, San Andreas (read our review) to fall to second in its second weekend. The disaster thriller brought in an amazing $54.5 million during its debut, which was far beyond anyone's expectations for the Dwayne Johnson vehicle. Critically speaking, it wasn't acclaimed, but it's playing very well for audiences, as its Monday box office totals were heads above the competition. The people have responded to this film, and even though the return of McCarthy/Feig should bring in more business, the safe money is on San Andreas being a strong hold and posting big figures again.

#3 - Insidious: Chapter 3

Coming in third should be Insidious: Chapter 3, the new horror film that's a prequel to the previous two installments of this franchise. The series has been one of the more lucrative horror properties in recent years, with 2013's Chapter 2 bringing in $83.5 million ($40.2 million of which came in its opening weekend). And as horror fans get primed for another scary film, the brand recognition this carries with viewers should help it post respectable numbers at the box office.

How respectable is the question. Chapter 2 was a hit, but it opened in the far less competitive time of September, whereas this is opening in the middle of summer, with several genre pictures vying for viewers' attention. Odds are Chapter 3 won't be a massive hit, but it will still do fine on its own. Early tracking is indicating an opening weekend in the $24 million range, which is a far cry from the last film, but still very good given the circumstances. It probably won't be a crossover sensation, but it will give horror junkies something they can call their own.

Stefanie Scott in Insidious 3

#4 - Entourage

Coming in fourth should be Entourage, a film continuation of HBO's popular drama/comedy series. The movie has been a long time coming for fans of the show, and now that it's here the die-hards can't wait. Unfortunately for the studio, they're probably going to be the only ones really interested. Despite a highly-visible marketing campaign, tracking is only at $15 million for the opening weekend (which could be attributed to the fact Entourage comes out on Wednesday). Another factor against it is the early reviews haven't been positive, meaning newcomers will hardly be drawn to see this one in theaters. This is a project that seems destined to be trapped within its niche, but it should do fine on its own.

#5 - Pitch Perfect 2

Rounding out the top five should be Pitch Perfect 2 (read our review), which came in second last week with $14.8 million. Universal's musical comedy is doing great business, but now that a slew of fresh films are hitting screens, most moviegoers will opt for them, lowering the demand for this film and causing it to slide down the charts.

Last Week's Recap

The flop that was Aloha threw us off big time. We got the first two spots (San Andreas and Pitch Perfect 2) spot on, but after that it got messy. Cameron Crowe's latest (which we had in fourth) ended up sixth, and Tomorrowland (our prediction: fifth) came in third. Not even Mad Max could help us out. We had George Miller's film coming in third, but it ended up in fourth.

Next Week: Jurassic World, Spy and more!

Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule) and Box Office [1], [2], [3] (Opening Weekend Projections)

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