The 28th annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards are set to air on Sunday, February 27th, celebrating the best individual and ensemble acting performances in both film and television. Voted by their peers, winners of the SAG often feel more vindicated than earning every other major award short of the Oscar. However, unlike the Oscars, SAG includes the thankless stunt work that often goes overlooked and underappreciated.
With five TV and film nominees apiece, the premiere awards predictor GoldDerby has a few thoughts on the longest and shortest odds ahead of the upcoming SAG Awards ceremony. Those interested ought to place bets wisely.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
The Matrix: Resurrections - Odds: 9/2
Although it has its share of fans and apologists, the general consensus is that The Matrix: Resurrections is a limp and lifeless attempt to recapture past glory. Despite a few dazzling action sequences, GoldDerby has no expectation for the stunt ensemble to take home the statuette.
Despite boasting top-tier stunt coordinators and an athletic ensemble of stunt performers, the comparisons to the groundbreaking original and its game-changing "bullet time" technology were simply too pale to make a lasting impression. As such, the 4th Matrix film shares the longest odds with one TV show and two other movies.
Black Widow - Odds: 9/2
Despite earning higher review scores than The Matrix 4, Black Widow shares the same 4.5:1 odds to win the SAG Award for stunt ensemble, per GoldDerby. The film traces how Natasha Romanoff (Scarlett Johansson) became the titular Marvel heroine, boasting exhilarating fight choreography and incendiary action.
Still, the film stood out more for the standout roles of Florence Pugh and David Harbour, often prioritizing Natasha's twisty backstory over relentless action and large-scale stunt work. As such, it's a long shot to win the SAG Award.
Shang-Chi And The Legend Of The Ten Rings - Odds: 39/10
With 3.9:1 odds, Marvel's well-received Shang-Chi has a middling shot at winning the SAG Award, per GD. Boasting a terrific international cast to go with eye-popping visuals and stunt coordination, the film is a cultural touchstone and a massively satisfying piece of pop entertainment.
From the efforts of legendary fight coordinator Andy Cheng to the badass stunt-double Fan brothers that bolster the main character's fighting ability, the immaculate detail to transcend Kung-Fu combat into the mystical supernatural realm is a true sight to behold. In addition to the SAG Award, Shang-Chi is also nominated for an Oscar for Best Achievement in Visual Effects.
Dune - Odds: 19/5
At 19:5, Denis Villeneuve's sprawling epic Dune has the second shortest odds of any movie to win the SAG Stunt Ensemble, so says GoldDerby. With a whopping 10 Oscar nominations to boot, the film surely would have scored a stunt nomination if the Academy offered one.
Currently rated #207 on IMDb's Top 250, Dune tells the first half of Frank Herbert's venerated sci-fi novel that many have long considered to be unfilmable. With a massive ensemble cast forced to toil away in the Jordanian desert for months on end, the grueling physical demands are palpably felt onscreen.
No Time To Die - Odds: 17/5
Slightly besting Dune to land the shortest odds, GoldDerby feels strongly that No Time Do Die will win the SAG Award for Best Stunt Ensemble. Reduced to a 3.4:1 chance of winning, it appears James Bond (Daniel Craig) isn't going away quietly.
The prediction should come as no real surprise, as 007 films are usually tailor-made around FX-driven stunts, elaborately-designed fight scenes, and giant action sequences that require a ton of moving parts to work in a synchronized manner. And while the James Bond movie shocked fans by how emotional it became at the end, the brilliant direction of Cary Joji Fukunaga is as scintillating as it gets.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series
The Falcon And The Winter Soldier - Odds: 9/2
In a somewhat surprising prediction, GoldDerby feels The Falcon and the Winter Soldier has the longest odds to win the SAG Stunt Ensemble Award for TV. The popular 2021 Disney+ original series has the big, bold production value fans would expect from an MCU adaptation yet has garnered little faith in industry prognosticators.
Perhaps the predictors felt that show was more of an intimate character exam of Sam Wilson (Anthony Mackie) and his relationship with Bucky (Sebastian Stan) than a vehicle for high-flying stunts. Either way, this one is a bit of a head-scratcher.
Mare Of Easttown - Odds: 9/2
Despite the great Kate Winslet being the frontrunner to win the SAG Award for Best Lead Actress in TV Movie/Miniseries, her show Mare of Easttown has the lowest chance of winning the Stunt Ensemble honor, per GD.
Unlike The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, this prediction makes a lot more sense given the material. Mare of Easttown is much more of a character-driven tale of personal redemption as Mare (Winslet) tries to pick up the pieces of her shattered existence while solving a small-town murder. While there is action, it's far less elaborate and scaled way back compared to the competition.
Loki - Odds: 4/1
The only nominee to score 4:1 odds, Loki is in the middle of the pack in terms of its chances to win the TV Stunt Ensemble SAG. The highly-acclaimed Disney+ original series is everything fans want from an MCU TV show, including breathless action and impressively choreographed stunt work.
Story-wise, Loki (Tom Hiddleston) is resurrected after the events of Endgame, using his ruthless wiles to reassume his throne as the God of Mischief. With 12 episodes, there's more material for voters to be wooed by than the other TV competition, giving it a decent shot at winning.
Cobra Kai - Odds: 39/10
Considering how they are both wildly popular stories firmly entrenched in martial artistry, it sort of makes sense that Cobra Kai and Shang-Chi share the same odds to win the Stunt Ensemble SAG in the eyes of GoldDerby. At 3.9:1, Cobra Kai has the second-best chance of winning in the TV category.
The TV adaptation of the beloved Karate Kid series continues to widen the philosophical chasm between Daniel LaRusso's (Ralph Macchio) nonviolent Miyagi-Do and Johnny Lawrence's strike-first Eagle Fang form of karate. While watching them clash offers nostalgic fun, it's the young ensemble cast that really impresses during the awesome fight scenes and tournament play. The best fights in Cobra Kai season 4 are definitely worthy of the nomination.
Squid Game - Odds: 16/5
The landmark television event of 2021, it only seems right that GoldDerby taps Netflix's smash hit Squid Game to win the SAG for Best Stunt Ensemble. With the shortest odds of any nominee in film or TV, the sadistic survival gameshow built around deadly physical demands and taxing bodily harm certainly deserves its nomination more than most.
With odds laid at 3.2:1, Squid Game appears poised to take home the award, as its closest competition (Cobra Kai) comes in at 3.9:1, a substantial decrease. If Squid Game doesn't win the award, fans might be up in arms.