Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is already a huge success at the box office, even by Star Wars standards. The movie is poised to pass $400 domestically over New Year’s weekend, which is about $86 million away from the year-best total for Finding Dory - and it’s only in its third weekend in theaters. Rogue One doesn’t have enough time to reach the highest domestic total of the 2016 calendar year in the U.S., but has a chance to pass Captain America: Civil War ($408 million) for the second-highest.
While Rogue One is set to continue ruling the galaxy at the box office, it has some competition in Illumination Entertainment and Universal’s Sing, the hit animated feature starring the voice talents of Matthew McConaughey and Reese Witherspoon. Sing isn’t projected to match Rogue One’s New Year box office total, but the two movies are poised to dominate the rest of the field.
Variety is reporting that Rogue One earned $18.2 million at the domestic box office on Friday and is expected to earn about $65.2 million over the course of the weekend. Sing, meanwhile, earned $16.8 million on Friday and is projected to bring in $54.6 million in its second weekend at the box office. Rogue One has the advantage in number of theaters, with 4,157 locations compared to Sing’s 4,029.
Chris Pratt and Jennifer Lawrence’s sci-fi vehicle Passengers is expected to nab the third spot in the New Year weekend box office with a distant $20 million. Rounding out the top-five on Friday was Disney’s Moana and Denzel Washington’s directing/starring effort Fences, with $4.3 million and $3.4 million, respectively. Damien Chazelle’s Oscar-contending musical La La Land is projected to reach about $12 million for the weekend, despite being released in just 750 theaters.
With continued success in theaters, Rogue One has a good chance for its combined 2016 and 2017 box office totals to crack the top five of 2016. At $706.1 million worldwide, it also has a good chance to reach $1 billion worldwide. Boasting big box office profits and mostly strong reviews, Rogue One can already be declared a hugely successful movie in general, let alone as a part of the Star Wars franchise. As for Sing, it may not match Finding Dory's success, but it will be a big winner among many successful 2016 animated features like Moana, Zootopia, and Trolls.
Rogue One has amassed impressive numbers as the first-ever Star Wars anthology movie, but it is still less than halfway to the domestic total of The Force Awakens. It’s also unlikely that it approaches J.J. Abrams’ continuation of the Star Wars saga in terms of its worldwide total of $2.06 billion. But as one of the bigger risks of the Star Wars franchise, Disney’s big bet with the standalone Star Wars anthology has already paid off in a major way.