Netflix's upcoming Red Notice, starring Dwayne Johnson, may have performed poorly at the box office this past weekend, but that doesn't matter at all for the film's overall success. As a Netflix original, subscriber views matter much more than a movie's performance at the box office, even though The Rock barely managing to bring in $1 million dollars at theaters may initially raise the People's eyebrow.
Netflix is currently touting the action-adventure heist Red Notice as its most expensive movie yet, racking up a budget of $200 million. In an unusual play that emphasizes the growing influence of streaming services, Netflix acquired the script from Universal after the latter seemed reluctant to move forward with the proposed budget. The film boasts an all-star cast that includes Wonder Woman's Gal Gadot and Deadpool's Ryan Reynolds, in addition to leading man Dwayne Johnson ahead of his own big budget super hero feature Black Adam.
That price tag is why the low returns look scary, but Netflix never relies on box office revenue as its primary indicator of success. After all, Red Notice opened in 750 theaters, a measly number when compared to Marvel's wide-release blockbuster Eternals opening in 4,090 theaters. Then again, Netflix's budget is on par with what it costs to make Eternals, as well as other gigantic tentpole films like Black Widow and F9, so there is still a risk factor involved here. Unlike platforms like Disney+ and HBO Max, however, Netflix doesn't consider theatrical attendance for new releases nearly as much as they analyze subscriber numbers.
Marketing and awards consideration was a much bigger factor than box office when it came to Netflix deciding to release Red Notice theatrically. In fact, the company hasn't even released definitive public data about box office revenue, as all current numbers are soft estimates. What does matter is if the film can rack up viewership when it debuts on the platform this weekend, streaming on November 12. For instance, this year's Army of the Dead made $1 million upon its limited theatrical release, then brought in a record-breaking 75 million viewers on Netflix the week after, paving the way for a new franchise.
It's unclear how successful Red Notice would have to be to justify the film's budget but suffice it to say that Netflix felt comfortable spending $200 million for a new IP. The service is also constantly still looking for new subscriber growth worldwide, which means that it's hoping to not only bring in existing viewers, but create new ones as well. The theatrical release of Red Notice is an announcement that the new movie isn't just any ordinary Netflix original, but one of the growing few that are trying to stand toe-to-toe with the biggest, flashiest Hollywood blockbusters from major studios. How the film performs in the living room, however, will be the true indicator of its achievement.
