The 2022 awards season is quickly coming to an end, and it looks like Netflix's The Power of the Dog is this year's big winner. In an admittedly slow year, Netflix came through with a bonafide masterpiece that is receiving rave reviews across the board. It has been a heavy favorite throughout this year's awards race, and it looks to win big at the Oscars.
Of course, nothing is set in stone, and there is still plenty of opportunity for an underdog to sweep. In fact, it's very possible that Dune might sweep this year. But looking at it through an objective lens, it looks like this ceremony will belong to Netflix.
It Has The Most Nominations
Of course, nominations don't mean everything. Many movies have received a large amount of nominations and gone on to win few, or even none at all. But that doesn't look to be the case with The Power of the Dog.
A large number of nominations typically means that the movie is a heavy favorite going in, and Netflix's Western has racked up 12, making it the most-nominated movie of the 94th Academy Awards. It likely won't win all 12, but even a middling success rate will mean good things for a sweep.
It Fits The Definition Of "Oscar Bait"
Many Oscar bait movies have won big throughout the years, and The Power of the Dog looks to continue that tradition. It's hard to pin down just what exactly an "Oscar bait" movie is, but they're typically slow, dramatic films focused on "outsider" characters and typically set in a period setting.
The Power of the Dog checks those boxes, as it's a slow, character-based meditation on repressing homosexual desires in the midst of early 20th century toxic masculinity.
It Features Well-Respected Names
The Academy does honor smaller productions from time to time, but they also tend to cater to "an inner circle" of filmmakers. These are well-respected names whose works are often showered with nominations and critical acclaim.
These are names like director Jane Campion, composer Jonny Greenwood, art director Grant Major, and actor Benedict Cumberbatch. This is one of Jane Campion's best movies, and her name holds great esteem within the Academy. It's very likely that they will heavily reward her best work.
It's The Consensus Heavy Favorite
The Power of the Dog is the heavy favorite going into this year's Oscars. The movie was an enormous critical success, it has won a slew of industry awards, and it has great odds to win numerous categories (more on those in a bit).
Yes, it won't win everything it is nominated for (it's likely to be swept by Dune in the technical categories), but between its prior awards success record and Oscar bait potential, it's highly likely that The Power of the Dog sweeps this year's Academy Awards.
It's Been An Awards Behemoth
The Power of the Dog has been an awards behemoth throughout the 2022 season. To date, the movie has received 265 nominations and well over 200 wins, making it the most successful movie of the year by far.
While all the major awards are still to come, The Power of the Dog has found success with the American Film Institute, Golden Globes, London & New York Film Critics Circle, and the Venice Film Festival, just to name a few. Prior award wins often herald great things at the Oscars.
It Has Good Odds
Many betting companies and organizations have been studying the Oscars closely, and if their predictions mean anything, then it's very likely that The Power of the Dog will sweep. As of now, the film is likely to win Best Supporting Actor and very likely to win Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Director, and Best Picture.
That's four awards, which is typically enough for an Oscars sweep. But there's also the very real possibility that it also sneaks out wins in the categories of Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Score, and Best Film Editing.
It's Ahead In Major Categories
The Power of the Dog is a heavy favorite to win most of the major categories (those being acting, writing, and directing). Typically the winners of the major categories are the movies that sweep a given awards ceremony.
Kodi Smit-McPhee is likely to win Best Supporting Actor, although he has close competition with CODA's Troy Kotsur. Aside from that, it's all but guaranteed to win the major categories, including screenplay, director, and picture.
It Has No Competition
It might be too early to say, but The Power of the Dog has virtually no competition in the major award categories. It could become one of the greatest Best Picture winners, because according to betting website Sports Interaction, the odds of The Power of the Dog winning Best Picture are an easy 1.52. The runner-up is Belfast, with 4.15.
Jane Campion also has 1.12 odds to win Best Director, Kodi Smit-McPhee 1.47 to win Best Supporting Actor, and 1.20 odds to win Best Adapted Screenplay. Put simply, betting experts see no way that The Power of the Dog loses in these categories.
It Topped Many Year-End Lists
Critical reception is a great predicator of Oscars success - especially year-end top ten lists. And when it comes to top ten lists, no other movie this year has beaten The Power of the Dog. According to Metacritic, The Power of the Dog is the most-mentioned movie on year-end top ten lists, followed by Drive My Car and Licorice Pizza.
In total, The Power of the Dog has placed first in 31 year-end lists, which is far more than Drive My Car's 23. If these lists are anything to go by, then The Power of the Dog will have no trouble sweeping the Oscars.
It's The Best Picture Favorite - And They Typically Sweep
The Power of the Dog is the heavy favorite to win Best Picture this year, and Best Picture winners, by their very title, typically sweep at the Oscars. In the last years, Nomadland won three Oscars, Parasite won four, and The Shape of Water won four.
Three to four Oscars typically constitutes a sweep, and if the odds and predictions are correct, then The Power of the Dog is on course to win four. The Best Pictures are best pictures for a reason.