Quantumania's Box Office Crash Means It Might Make Less Than Ant-Man 2

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania had the biggest opening weekend of any movie in the MCU's Ant-Man trilogy, but it might end up having a lower box office total than its predecessor, Ant-Man and the Wasp. The third Ant-Man movie isn't only the second MCU movie to earn a Rotten score in Rotten Tomatoes, but its box office cratering sets another MCU record. If that pattern continues, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania could earn less than Ant-Man 2.

Despite its $106.1 million opening weekend, a nearly 70 percent box office drop in its second weekend and over 60 percent in its third weekend, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is already earning less day-to-day than Ant-Man and the Wasp was at the same point in its run. Since Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania's opening weekend was $30.2 million higher than Ant-Man and the Wasp's 75.8 million, Quantumania has a bit of a head start, but if it continues to lose box office steam at the rate it's going, it could end up with a lower total than its predecessor.

Ant-Man And The Wasp: Quantumania Had The Biggest Ant-Man Opening Weekend

Split Image of Multiple Ant-Men in Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

The first Ant-Man opened to just $57.2 million at the domestic box office, the second-lowest opening weekend in the MCU (behind The Incredible Hulk's $55.4 million opening weekend). Ant-Man and the Wasp's $75.8 million was an increase of $18.6 million and is the seventh-lowest opening weekend in the MCU. Quantumania's $30.2 increase over Ant-Man and the Wasp made its $106.1 million the biggest Ant-Man opening, although it's ranked 15th, almost dead center, compared to the rest of the MCU's opening weekends.

The MCU's average opening weekend box office is $134.9 per movie, which is $29.8 million more than Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania's $106.1 million opening weekend; however, Ant-Man's $57.2 and Ant-Man and the Wasp's $75.8 million opening come to an $66.5 million average, which is $39.6 less than Quantumania's opening weekend and $69.4 million less than the MCU's overall average opening weekend box office.

Quantumania Had The MCU's Biggest Second Weekend Drop

jonathan majors fighting as kang the conqueror in ant-man and the wasp quantumania

Unfortunately, despite out-grossing the other Ant-Man movies, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania also has two of the biggest post-release drops in the MCU, falling 69.9 percent in its second weekend and 61 percent in its third weekend. While Quantumania's opening weekend ranked 15th compared to the rest of the MCU's opening weekend box office, its $12.5 million third-weekend box office is only more than three movies, The Incredible Hulk, Eternals, and Black Widow, all of which opened far below Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.

The MCU's average second-weekend box office drop is 58 percent. The first Ant-Man's second-weekend drop was 56.5 percent, slightly under average, and Ant-Man and the Wasp's second-weekend drop was 61.6 percent, slightly over average, with both coming to a combined 59 percent average, barely over the overall MCU average. At 69.9 percent, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania's second-weekend drop isn't only the MCU's biggest drop, but also ten points higher than the prior Ant-Man movie average.

Quantumania Is Already Falling Behind Ant-Man And The Wasp At The Box Office

While Ant-Man and the Wasp had the biggest opening weekend of the Ant-Man trilogy, it has the worst third weekend of the trilogy, with its $12.5 million coming in $4 million lower than Ant-Man and the Wasp's $16.5 million third weekend and $300 thousand lower than Ant-Man's $12.8 million third weekend. In fact, it's already been earning less day-to-day than the original Ant-Man since its 11th day in theaters, and it's been earning less day-to-day than Ant-Man and the Wasp with only a couple exceptions since its fifth day in theaters.

Since the Ant-Man franchise includes some of the MCU's lowest-grossing movies, they don't set the bar super high for Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania's box office, but if Quantumania can't keep up with Ant-Man and the Wasp, it could become the second MCU sequel to earn less than its predecessor domestically. The first time was the MCU's first sequel, Iron Man 2, which earned $312.4 million domestically, just a few million under Iron Man $318.6 million domestic total, but globally Iron Man 2's $623.9 million total out-earned Iron Man's $585.4 million.

Quantumania Might Not Earn As Much As Ant-Man 2

Antman and the wasp quantumania box office money

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is still $54 million ahead of Ant-Man, which only earned $46 million after its third weekend, so Quantumania is likely to keep its lead on the original Ant-Man, but Ant-Man and the Wasp is a different story. Quantumania's lead on Ant-Man and the Wasp has already dwindled to under $22 million, and that lead is shrinking by an average of over $1.5 million per day for the last week. If that lead continues to shrink at the same rate, Quantumania will fall behind Ant-Man and the Wasp's box office pace in less than two weeks and likely fail to accumulate a larger domestic box office total.

Ant-Man and the Wasp Quantumania could still exceed Ant-Man and the Wasp's global total if its international box office can make up the difference for its cratering domestic box office, but that doesn't seem likely either. While Ant-Man and the Wasp earned 65 percent of its total box office overseas, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is trending 10 percent lower at 55 percent, meaning it'll likely earn less domestically and internationally - and therefore less overall - than Ant-Man and the Wasp.

Of course, box office isn't an inherent indicator of quality, although the combination of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania's low box office numbers, collapsing legs, and low Rotten Tomatoes score, it seems like critics and audiences don't enjoy it nearly as much as the average MCU movie. As the introduction to the MCU's next big bad, Kang the Conqueror, and the first official installment of Phase 5 of the MCU, this is surely not the kickoff Marvel Studios hoped for, but with big movies like Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 coming as a part of Phase 5, the MCU may be able to regain some steam after the major stumbles of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.

Next: Predicting Phase 5 Box Office Based Off Ant-Man