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Box Office Prediction: Paddington 2 vs. Jumanji

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Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week's box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from last weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of January 12 - 14, 2017.

This weekend, The Commuter debuts in 2,892 theaters, Paddington 2 plays in 3,702 locations, Proud Mary opens in 2,125 theaters, and The Post expands nationwide to 2,819 theaters.

#1 - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Repeating in the top spot should be Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (read our review). The adventure film, which opened in the shadow of Star Wars: The Last Jedi, managed to overtake 2017's biggest film thanks to its positive word-of-mouth and widespread appeal. The reboot has done very well for itself since premiering in late-December, grossing $256.1 million domestically so far. With the doldrums of January upon us, there's very little in the way of competition to pose a challenge to The Rock and friends. Jumanji looks to have a clear path for the #1 position.

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#2 - The Post

Our pick for second is The Post (read our review), Steven Spielberg's Best Picture contender about the Washington Post's dilemma to publish the Pentagon Papers in the 1970s. The film has been playing in limited release since Christmas, bringing in $4.4 million from those engagements. Now that it's expanding to locations across the country, it should be able to ride its buzz to solid box office totals. Spielberg is not the commercial record-breaker he was earlier in his career, but he can still sell a well-received film for its target audience. Bridge of Spies posted a respectable $72.3 million in 2015, and Lincoln earned $182.2 million in 2012.

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Coming off six Golden Globe nominations and Oscar nods sure to follow, The Post is in great position to be one of this weekend's top earners. Estimates have it pegged for $21 million in its first three days of nationwide exposure, which is what Lincoln brought in when it expanded around this time five years ago. The combination of Spielberg, Tom Hanks, and Meryl Streep should be enough to draw in history buffs and cinephiles looking to keep up with awards hopefuls.

#3 - Paddington 2

Coming in third should be Paddington 2 (read our review), the sequel to the beloved family film from a couple years ago. The original Paddington went on to earn $76.1 million domestically, and distributor Warner Bros. is hoping for similar results with the followup. Paddington 2 has earned unanimous praise, with people hailing it for its heartfelt story and strong visuals. This is certainly an atypical January release, as the month normally sees less-than-stellar offerings meant to be buried. Due to the reception, Paddington 2 will stand out and be an appealing option for those with younger children. With Jumanji still going strong, it'll be hard for Paddington to stand out, but projections have it pegged for $20.4 million in its first three days.

#4 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Coming in fourth should be Star Wars: The Last Jedi (read our review). Lucasfilm's latest blockbuster is starting to slow down now, and with a slew of new releases, business will continue to decline. Still, it should be able to stick around for at least another week as fans get more repeat viewings in.

#5 - Proud Mary

Rounding out the top five should be Proud Mary (read our review), a new action film starring Taraji P. Henson. The actress has made a name for herself over the past few years with her role in TV's Empire and the Oscar-nominated Hidden Figures ($169.6 million), giving this movie a recognizable face for the marketing campaign. Proud Mary isn't entering theaters with the most fan fare, but Henson's presence should be enough to keep it afloat. Estimates suggest it'll pull $17.5 million in its first three days.

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Last Week's Recap

Our Picks

  • Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  • Insidious: The Last Key
  • Pitch Perfect 3
  • The Greatest Showman

Actuals

  • Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
  • Insidious: The Last Key
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  • The Greatest Showman
  • Pitch Perfect 3

Next week: 12 Strong, Den of Thieves, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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