Summary

• The 2024 Oscars are predicted to follow the fresh change in genre and diversity seen in the 2023 Oscars, with great movies and performances expected to be rewarded.
• The likes of Barbie, Poor Things, and Killers of the Flower Moon all have a lot of nominations and could win awards.
• However, it's Oppenheimer that leads the way with 13 nominations, and is the frontrunner in several categories including Best Picture.

With the 96th Academy Awards set to take place, there are plenty of marvelous movies, exciting performances, great directorial efforts, sizzling screenplays, and so much more that are hoping to win at the Oscars 2024. The nominees and winners at the 2023 Oscars largely offered a fresh change to the Academy’s voting history in relation to genre and diversity, especially with the history made with winners in the acting categories like Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan. The 2024 Oscars are expected to follow a similar path, ready to reward some of the best movies of 2023, with some highly-regarded stories and performances that aren’t apt to be forgotten.

The Oscars 2024 nominations have been announced, multiple other awards have been handed out, and now it's time for the main event. The Golden Globes, the SAG Awards, the DGA Awards, and more are decided, so the Oscars are all that's left. Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer leads the way, but there are plenty of challengers across the various categories. We'll run through the nominees and who has the best chances of taking home a little gold man on Oscars night, which takes place Sunday March 10, 2024.

23 Best Picture

Winner: Oppenheimer

Previously, Best Picture category had looked - like many others - to be heading for a battle between Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon. However, as awards season has gone, it's Christopher Nolan's movie that has pulled clear as the frontrunner. Oppenheimer looks set to dominate in the below-the-line categories and win at least one acting one, and has good form. It was a big winner at the Golden Globes 2024, the Critics Choice Awards, and took home the top prize at the SAG, DGA, and PGA Awards.

Oppenheimer's Best Picture win looks inevitable, but could there be an upset? It's not unheard of, and perhaps the smart pick for an outside bet is The Zone of Interest, another World War 2 movie that works as the antithesis of Oppenheimer.

Oppenheimer's Best Picture win looks inevitable, but could there be an upset? It's not unheard of, and perhaps the smart pick for an outside bet is The Zone of Interest, another World War 2 movie that works as the antithesis of Oppenheimer. It has a few strong nominations, and one anonymous Oscar voter told THR they'd be voting it for Best Picture - if there's strong support, then it has a chance, even if Nolan's movie looks so unbeatable.

Outside of those, then Poor Things' 11 nominations mean it's very much in the conversation alongside Killers of the Flower Moon. The Holdovers previously gained some momentum and picked up Best Comedy or Musical at the Golden Globes, but may not have enough left to carry it forward. Anything else winning, while not impossible, would represent a huge shock.

22 Best Director

Winner: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

Christopher Nolan has, surprisingly, only been nominated for Best Director once (for Dunkirk). In contrast, Martin Scorsese has nine nominations so far, but only one win (for The Departed). That's a major gap between the two most well-known contenders, but form suggests the Academy will look to give Nolan what many would see as an award not only deserving for Oppenheimer, but also his entire body of work. That he won the DGA Award only cements this.

There are plenty of other great directors in here, despite some major snubs like Greta Gerwig. Yorgos Lanthimos remains a unique voice (and only he, Scorsese, and Nolan have DGA nominations, making them the strongest three contenders). Jonathan Glazer delivers powerful work on The Zone of Interest, and Justine Triet is a surprising but welcome nominee for Anatomy of a Fall. It's hard to argue with their nominations, but it very much feels like this is Nolan's time.

21 Best Actress

Winner: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

When Poor Things won the Golden Lion at Venice Film Festival, it seemed as though Emma Stone was an early lock for the Best Actress prize at the Oscars 2024: already an awards favorite despite just being in her early-30s (with three nominations, one win), she's the star of Yorgos Lanthimos' new movie and received the most attention and praise for its win. However, Lily Gladstone coming into this category shakes things up massively, and might be enough to take the Oscar away from Stone.

Gladstone is seen as the best part of Killers of the Flower Moon's cast, which is no easy feat in a movie starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro. The breakthrough should garner a lot of support, especially from the acting guild, and could be enough to carry her to the win, having already picked up the Golden Globe. Killers of the Flower Moon has a whopping 10 nominations, but Gladstone might well be the only award it picks up, which makes her win feel more likely.

The other nominees do some good work, but Best Actress is very much Gladstone vs. Stone. The former has the greater momentum, especially after taking home the SAG Award, but Stone is popular, and a win here wouldn't exactly be an upset. Of all the acting categories, this one is the toughest to call.

20 Best Actor

Winner: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

Eight of the last 13 Best Actor Oscars have gone to someone playing a real-life figure, and that trend could continue with Cillian Murphy. He's the shining star of the movie likely to win the most awards, and his powerful turn as J. Robert Oppenheimer is the kind of complicated, meaty role that screams Oscars. It is, however, his very first nomination, which could see the Academy's eyes turn elsewhere.

"Elsewhere" is Paul Giamatti, who has emerged as the main competition. He won the Best Actor - Comedy or Musical award at the Golden Globes and then beat Murphy at the Critics Choice Awards, so is a threat to his chances. Giamatti has also been around a long time and is very well respected, despite only one previous nomination, and could be the name voters turn to when so many others awards will be going to Oppenheimer. Murphy's SAG Award means he's the favorite heading into Oscars night all the same, but Giamatti's race isn't done just yet.

19 Best Supporting Actress

Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

At one point, it had seemed like this was going to be the easiest of the acting categories to call, because the early forecasts suggested that Killers of the Flower Moon's Lily Gladstone would be entered into this race (perhaps because it would mean a better chance of winning). That no longer looks set to be the case, however, with Gladstone instead entering into the Best Actress race, but this still appears to be a done deal.

The Holdovers' Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the overwhelming favorite here, after dominating throughout awards season. Randolph plays the school cook who lost her son in the Vietnam War, and she's the film's beating heart and its standout performer (which landed her the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG Award).

The Holdovers' Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the overwhelming favorite here, after dominating throughout awards season. Randolph plays the school cook who lost her son in the Vietnam War, and she's the film's beating heart and its standout performer (which landed her the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG Award). Competition comes from Oppenheimer, which is a major contender and Emily Blunt is one of its strongest parts. America Ferrera has a surprise nomination for Barbie, but given it missed out on Best Director and Best Actress, it probably doesn't have wide enough support for the win.

That is also true for Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple, which was otherwise overlooked completely. Nyad does have plenty of love for its performances, with Bening also getting a nod, and Foster is also prominent on screens in True Detective (something that a decade ago helped Matthew McConaughey to a win), but a victory would be a major upset.

18 Best Supporting Actor

Winner: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)

At the 2009 Oscars, Robert Downey Jr. missed out on winning Best Supporting Actor with the award going to an actor from a Christopher Nolan movie, namely Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight. 15 years on, and Downey Jr's best shot at an Oscar since then comes in the same category, but this time he's the one in a Nolan movie. Will Oppenheimer be enough to get him his first win? He's got the edge precisely because he hasn't won before, and could be seen as being due, which has been reflected with wins at the Globes, the BAFTAs, the SAGs, and more.

Ryan Gosling's nomination for Barbie will likely be good Kenough, but it is also one of the movie's best chances at a big award. Robert De Niro gives his most acclaimed performance in years in Killers of the Flower Moon, but momentum for the win has dipped. Sterling K. Brown was a late surge, and American Fiction has strong supporting from the acting guilds, so can't be entirely ruled out. Meanwhile, Mark Ruffalo edged out Willem Dafoe for the Poor Things nod, but it's hard to see beyond Downey as the frontrunner.

17 Best Original Screenplay

Winner: Anatomy Of A Fall

With Barbie considered as an adapted screenplay by the Academy, the Best Original Screenplay award looks more open. That benefited May December for a nomination, but what about in terms of the win? Maestro leads the way out of these movies with seven nominations, but its screenplay isn't one of the most praised or talked about parts of the movie. Instead, The Holdovers and Anatomy of a Fall, which have 5 nods apiece, look to be the ones battling this out on Oscars night.

Anatomy of the Fall took home the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay, and has a Best Director nod that shows just how highly thought of it - and Triet - is. However, The Holdovers is clearly popular too and its screenplay is superb, plus Alexander Payne movies have form here, so this will be a very tight race. Past Lives would also be deserving, but probably doesn't have quite enough broad support.

16 Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner: American Fiction

Recent form suggests that you need to win a Best Screenplay award to win Best Picture (four of the last five have done so, albeit with three coming from the Original side), but is that going to continue with Oppenheimer? A win would not be a shock by any means, but it - surprisingly - isn't the favorite heading into the Oscars.

Instead, it's American Fiction that has emerged as the frontrunner for Best Adapted Screenplay, having picked up a lot of momentum. Cord Jefferson has won this prize at the Critics Choice Awards, the BAFTAs, the Independent Spirit Awards, the Satellite Awards, and various others. While it doesn't appear to have huge support higher up, its form shows how strong a contender it is here.

In terms of alternatives, this is one of the toughest categories of the entire night. Barbie's snubs could push it to what would be its biggest win of the night (and its screenplay is quite a marvel, given it didn't have a source text to work with). Poor Things has broad support, is inventive and, again, this is the chance for a big award for it. The Zone of Interest is a work that resonates (and completely changes its source material). This is one where things could be shaken up.

15 Best Animated Feature Film

Winner: Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse won this award five years at the 2019 Oscars, and with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse pushing its groundbreaking mix of animation styles and technology even further, then this should be its to lose after taking home the PGA Award. Very strong competition comes from the return of Hayao Miyazaki with The Boy and the Heron, his first feature film in a decade, which won the Golden Globe. Spider-Verse may just have broader support, but this is incredibly close.

Pixar picked up its usual nomination for Elemental, but a win this year would be a big shock. The other nominees, Nimona and Robot Dreams, had to fight off some very tough competition to take those spots, and it's very difficult to imagine either getting the win unless momentum drastically shifts.

14 Best International Feature Film

Winner: The Zone of Interest

Best International Feature at the Oscars 2024 could have been incredibly close to call if France had chosen to submit Anatomy of a Fall, which would've put two Best Picture contenders into the race. After that surprising snub (which backfired with France's The Taste of Things not even being nominated), buzzy Netflix hit Society of the Snow looks to be a strong contender. However, it's the heavily acclaimed The Zone of Interest that's the clear frontrunner. With it in contention for some big prizes, including Picture and Director, then the movie - which is from the UK but in German - should be guaranteed to win.

13 Best Documentary Feature

Winner: 20 Days In Mariupol

There were some surprise snubs in this category, including American Symphony, which led the way with six nominations at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards, and Still: A Michael J. Fox movie, which won the two top prizes there. That makes this pretty open, though the powerful Ukrainian doc 20 Days in Mariupol is timely, worthy, and has some awards season form, including the DGA win. Look to Four Daughters and To Kill a Tiger for the strongest competition in this race.

12 Best Documentary Short Subject

Winner: The Last Repair Shop

The Last Repair Shop won this award at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards and, while they didn't line up in the main Documentary category, that should make it the frontrunner here and gives it the most momentum. The Barber of Little Rock and The ABCs of Book Banning were both also nominated there, suggesting they're the real competition, but shorts can be very difficult to predict.

11 Best Animated Short Film

Winner: Letter To A Pig

The big snub here is Disney, whose Once Upon A Studio was surprisingly overlooked. That means it's another open race, but Letter to a Pig has won at a lot of international awards ceremonies already, so carries some strong form heading into the Oscars. War Is Over, meanwhile, boasts music from regular Oscar nominee Thomas Newman, which could help its chances, and Ninety-Five Senses has some name recognition too, coming from the duo behind Napoleon Dynamite.

10 Best Live Action Short Film

Winner: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Since the shorts can often be about what's been most widely seen and what carries name recognition, then Wes Anderson's The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, based on Roald Dahl's short story and released on Netflix, is surely the frontrunner. However, the Oscars have on occasion been resistant to going for big feature directors - for example Pedro Almodóvar's The Human Voice, starring Tilda Swinton was snubbed, and he could be snubbed again, too, with his Strange Way of Life, starring Pedro Pascal and Ethan Hawke, missing out. If that's the case, then Invincible has played well on the awards circuit, and The After, starring David Oyelowo, also has a shot.

9 Best Original Song

Winner: "What Was I Made For?" - Barbie

Barbie's songs fill multiple slots in the Best Original Song category, and it should be its own biggest competition too. For all the viral appeal "I'm Just Ken" has, however, "What Was I Made For?" feels like the more thematic and emotional song voters will go for. That would give Billie Eilish and brother Finneas another Oscar after their win for No Time To Die.

Diane Warren has the most nominations without a win (now at 15), and will probably extend that (with what is a remarkable 7th consecutive nomination). The other nominees are both surprise inclusions, making American Symphony's Best Documentary snub more odd. Killers of the Flower Moon doesn't look likely to win too many awards, and it'd be a shock if it beat Barbie here.

8 Best Original Score

Winner: Oppenheimer

Ludwig Göransson won this award for Black Panther, and is a good bet to make it two wins from two nominations at the Oscars 2024: Oppenheimer is a feat of technical achievements, but Göransson's booming, at times anthemic score is one of the clear standouts that elevates so much of the movie. That said, the late Robbie Robertson would be equally deserving for his great work on Killers of the Flower Moon. He has 11 collaborations with Martin Scorsese, and no wins, so a posthumous victory would be fitting. Elsewhere in the nominations, John Williams is a notable surprise inclusion - his 54th, overall - but it's hard to see past the top two for the win.

7 Best Sound

Winner: Oppenheimer

The Best Sound Oscar, especially since it was merged from Editing and Mixing into just one category, so often goes to the movie with the biggest sound. Here, that should be Oppenheimer: although the sound mixing of Christopher Nolan's movies is often a point of contention, it's not as much of an issue on this movie (and hasn't stopped him winning before, as The Dark Knight, Inception, and Dunkirk all picked up awards).

The Zone of Interest is also phenomenal in this regard and, as another big contender, has a chance. Maestro being a movie about a composer should mean sound is right at the forefront, making it perhaps the next closest competitor after those. The Creator and Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One are more surprising nominations, so a victory for either would represent an upset, despite both being the kind of movie that could win.

6 Best Visual Effects

Winner: The Creator

Two movies with budgets under $100 million have a real chance at winning Best Visual Effects, as both The Creator and Godzilla Minus One have incredible work in this category. Both have been highly praised for their VFX, and would be impressive even if their budgets had been much larger. The biggest snubs arguably happened when the initial shortlist was announced, with Oppenheimer and The Little Mermaid notably being left off.

The MCU has infamously never won here, and that looks unlikely to change with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One has some technical support, since it picked up this nod and a Sound nomination, but a win would still be surprising, while Napoleon doesn't appear to have enough love to take the prize.

5 Best Film Editing

Winner: Oppenheimer

Best Filming Editing isn't quite the predictor of Best Picture it used to be, but it still looks likely to come down to a battle between two favorites for the top prize. Both Jennifer Lame, who hasn't been nominated before, and Thelma Schoonmaker, who has three wins from eight nominations, were tasked with epic, dense movies that run at or over three hours long. That both managed it with such style is why they're the two favorites.

If the Oscars voters favor something a little breezier, then Anatomy of a Fall looks well placed. The Holdovers or Poor Things could have an outside chance, especially if voters look to take other opportunities to reward them outside the top prizes.

4 Best Costume Design

Winner: Barbie

Jacqueline Durran (2 wins from 8 nominations) and Jacqueline West (4 nominations) bring a lot of Oscars experience to this category, but it could be the previously un-nominated Holly Waddington who takes the gold. This is really Poor Things vs. Barbie, and either could take home the prize. Both have work that really stands out and is one of the most notable parts of the movie; Poor Things is perhaps even flashier, but Barbie's costumes were instantly iconic.

This is one category where Oppenheimer, while nominated, isn't the strongest contender, unless voters really are fully enamored with it. Napoleon's period setting also gets it a costume nomination, one of three below-the-line nods it picked up, but that will probably be enough for Ridley Scott's movie.