The 2023 Oscars nominations have arrived, but experts already have their picks of which movies are favored to win in each category. The year 2022 had a wide variety of movies that are predicted to pick up Academy Awards in the 2023 ceremony, including genres like drama, sci-fi, action, and comedy as well as a surprising number of sequels to decades-old films. Considering the 2022 Oscars brought a few big surprises at the ceremony through Best Picture winner CODA, Will Smith winning Best Actor directly after slapping Chris Rock on-stage, and Licorice Pizza winning zero awards, the 2023 Academy Awards is certain to include shocks that don’t align with the industry’s predicted winners.
Now that the official 2023 Oscars nominations have been announced, predictions beforehand about nominations and wins from similar award bodies like the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, and Satellite Awards gave greater indications as to how the Academy will vote. Across the board, some of the most frequent films favored to win or at least receive nominations at the Oscars include Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tár, Spielberg's The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Here’s a breakdown of the films favored to win, along with who was actually nominated, in each of the 23 categories at the 2023 Oscars.
Best Picture
The front-runners for the most coveted award for the 2023 Oscars nominations were Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, and The Fabelmans. These three films have picked up several Best Picture (or equivalent) nods throughout the awards season, which have been translated to the Oscars. However, there are still several critically-beloved movies favored in the top 10 that could've taken home the award.
The Fabelmans won similar awards at TIFF People’s Choice, AFI Movies of the Year, and NBR, while receiving nominations at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. Likewise, the Irish The Banshees of Inisherin won at the NBI and was nominated at the Golden Globes, Satellite Awards, and Critics’ Choice Awards. Everything Everywhere All at Once won a Best Picture equivalent at NBR, AFI Movies of the Year, and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, plus nominations at the Gotham Awards, Golden Globes, Indie Spirits, and Critics’ Choice. Here's who was actually nominated:
1. The Fabelmans
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Tár
6. Avatar: The Way of Water
7. All Quiet on the Western Front
8. Elvis
9. Women Talking
10. Triangle of Sadness
Best Actor
The Best Actor category seemed to already be locked for nominations, but the winner is less clear. The most likely winners for Best Actor at the 2023 Oscars are Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin, Brendan Fraser for The Whale, and Austin Butler for Elvis. Each of the favorites in the category has already been nominated for the award by other voting bodies, with Brendan Fraser winning at the TIFF Tribute Awards and Colin Farrell winning at the Venice Film Festival. Butler a won Best Actor award at the Golden Globes this season, and has been nominated by numerous groups, and has won several awards for Best Breakthrough Performance. Here's who was actually nominated for Best Actor.
1. Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
2. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
3. Austin Butler (Elvis)
4. Bill Nighy (Living)
5. Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Best Actress
The Best Actress award was more difficult to predict in recent years at the Academy Awards, but it would be surprising if the 2023 Oscar didn’t go to Cate Blanchett for her starring role in Tár. After Blanchett, the favorites to win Best Actress at the 2023 Oscars are Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once and Michelle Williams for The Fabelmans. These three actresses were all nominated for the same award at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, and Gotham Awards, and have each won Best Actress equivalents from various award bodies this season. Here's who was actually nominated for Best Actress.
1. Cate Blanchett (Tár)
2. Michelle Yeoh (EEAAO)
3. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
4. Ana de Armas (Blonde)
5. Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
Best Director
The Best Director award seems certain to be awarded to Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans at the 2023 Oscars. After Spielberg, who won Best Director in 1994 for Schindler’s List, the favorites to win the award are the Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once and Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin. These three nominees have already received Best Director nods at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, with Spielberg being awarded by the National Board of Review. Here are the 2023 Oscars nominations for Best Director.
1. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
2. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (EEAAO)
3. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Todd Field (Tár)
5. Ruben Östland (Triangle of Sadness)
Best Supporting Actor
In the Best Supporting Actor category, the most likely performer to win the award at the 2023 Oscars is Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once, which served as his triumphant return to the big screen. The other favorites in the category are Brendan Gleeson for The Banshees of Inisherin. Quan has already won the equivalent of this award from the NYFCC, LAFCA, and Gotham Awards, with Gleeson being awarded by the National Board of Review. Here are the official 2023 Oscar nominations for Best Supporting Actor:
1. Ke Huy Quan (EEAAO)
2. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
3. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
5. Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Best Supporting Actress
The favorite to win the Best Supporting Actress award at the 2023 Oscars is Kerry Condon for her performance in The Banshees of Inisherin. In addition to Condon, the favored winners in this category are Scream Queen Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All at Once and Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Condon received the equivalent SBIFF Virtuoso Award, with Curtis winning the SBIFF Maltin Modern Master Award. Here are the actual 2023 Oscar nominations for Best supporting actress
1. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis (EEAAO)
3. Hong Chau (The Whale)
4. Stephanie Hsu (EEAAO)
5. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Best Cinematography
The Best Cinematography award is truly up for grabs at the 2023 Academy Awards, though the most probable winner is Elvis, beating out Tom Cruise's Top Gun sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water, and The Fabelmans, which despite being favored winners weren't even nominated. The front-runners have all received several nominations and wins in the category throughout the season, including Best Cinematography nods for all three from the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards. However, the actual 2023 Oscar nominations for Best Cinematography proved to be very different than predicted.
1. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
2. Elvis
3. Empire of Light
4. Tár
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Feature Film
Following Encanto’s win at the 2022 Oscars, the animated film slated to win in the same category at the 2023 award ceremony is Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. The favored runner-ups for Best Animated Feature Film are Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and the critically acclaimed Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, which means it’s likely that the winner won’t be based on an original screenplay. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio received equivalent awards from the LAFCA and CFCA, and all three animated films were nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. Here are the 2023 Oscar nominations for Best Animated Feature Film.
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
4. Turning Red
5. The Sea Beast
Best Animated Short Film
The predicted most likely winner for Best Animated Short Film at the 2023 Academy Awards is New Moon, which won the same award at the Chicago International Children’s Film Festival, SCAD Savannah Film Festival, and French Riviera Film Festival. Taika Waititi’s Save Ralph and Apple TV’s The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse also had high odds to win the award, with the former having won the prestigious Grand Prix for Good award at the Cannes Lions Awards. Save Ralph, however, didn't make the cut. Some surprising 2023 Oscar nominations were made instead.
1. Ice Merchants
2. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
3. An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
4. The Flying Sailor
5. My Year of Dicks
Best International Feature Film
The Best International Feature Film could have some overlap with the Best Picture category at the 2023 Oscars, as Germany’s All Quiet on the Western Front has the best odds of winning the former. Favorites in the Best International Feature Film category also included Decision to Leave (which, despite its commitment to storytelling through costume design, eventually wasn't nominated) and Close. All three films were nominated at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, and Hollywood Critics Association Awards, with Close having won the Grand Prix award at the Cannes Film Festival. Here are the 2023 Oscar nominations for Best International Feature Film:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
2. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
3. Close (Belgium)
4. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
5. EO (Poland)
Best Original Song
Similar to how the Best Original Song at the 2022 Oscars went to hit singer Billie Eilish for the action movie No Time to Die, the 2023 Oscar award will most likely to go hit singer Lady Gaga for the action movie Top Gun: Maverick. Following Top Gun: Maverick’s “Hold My Hand,” the favorites to win in this category are “Naatu Naatu” from RRR and “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. All three tunes are nominated for Best Original Song at the Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globes, and Satellite Awards. The predictions weren't all that far off, and here are the actual 2023 Oscar nominations:
1. “Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick)
2. ”Naatu Naatu” (RRR)
3. “Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
4. “Applause” (Tell It Like A Woman)
5. “This is a Life” (EEAAO)
Best Original Score
Alongside Best Original Song, the Oscar for Best Original Score is one of the most coveted accolades for anyone in the cinematic music industry. Unsurprisingly, the favorite to win the award for Best Original Score at the 2023 Oscars is composer John Williams for Spielberg’s The Fabelmans. Others favored to take home the Academy Award were Alexandre Desplat for Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio and Hildur Guðnadóttir for Women Talking. The Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards have given nominations to these three films for Best Score, with each having already won awards from various outlets and voting bodies. However, Pinocchio and Women Talking were both omitted from the final nominees. Here are the final 2023 Oscar nominations for Best Original Score.
1. The Fabelmans
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Babylon
Best Sound
Having been a favorite since its release in May 2022, the odds are still in Top Gun: Maverick’s favor to win the Oscar for Best Sound. Following Top Gun: Maverick, the top contenders in this category are Elvis and Avatar: The Way of Water. Box office hits Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water have been nominated for the Best Sound equivalent at the Satellite Awards, with Elvis receiving plenty of critical praise for its sound mixing and editing. Here are the 2023 Oscar nominations for Best Sound:
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Elvis
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. The Batman
Best Adapted Screenplay
The favored film to win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2023 Academy Awards is Women Talking, which is based on Miriam Toews’ 2018 novel of the same name. The other most likely contenders in the category were Glass Onion, Rian Johnson’s hit sequel to Knives Out, and The Whale. These three movies have been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay by the HCA, Critics’ Choice, and Satellite Awards, though the true story-inspired Women Talking also earned nominations at the Golden Globes and Gotham Awards. Surprisingly though, The Whale was snubbed. Here are the official 2023 Oscar nominations for Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. Women Talking
2. Glass Onion
3. Living
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Top Gun: Maverick
Best Original Screenplay
The 2023 Oscars’ Best Original Screenplay award is favored to go to the Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Front-runners for the award also include Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans and Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin, the latter of which won the Best Screenplay award at the Venice Film Festival. These movies each received a nomination for the category at Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, HCA, and Satellite Awards. Here are the 2023 Oscar nominations for Best Original Screenplay:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. The Fabelmans
3. The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Tár
5. Triangle of Sadness
Best Documentary Feature Film
The Oscars' Best Documentaries cover many of the eye-opening aspects of life, with All the Beauty and the Bloodshed being favored to take home the award in 2023. The odds are also good for All That Breathes and Fire of Love, with these films making the 2023 Oscars category a close race. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed won prestigious awards at the Venice Film Festival, National Board of Review, and New York Film Critics Circle, as well as nominations at the Gotham and Satellite Awards. All That Breathes won awards for Best Documentary at the Gotham Awards, Sundance Film Festival, and Cannes Film Festival, with nominations at Satellite, Independent Spirit, and Critics’ Choice Documentary Awards. Here are the 2023 Oscar nominations for Best Documentary Feature Film:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
2. All That Breathes
3. Fire of Love
4. A House Made of Splinters
5. Navalny
Best Documentary Short Film
Leading the odds for Best Documentary Short Film at the 2023 Oscars was The Flagmakers, followed by Nuisance Bear and 38 at the Garden. The Flagmakers won Best Documentary Short at the SCAD Savannah Film Festival and the audience award at the Denver International Film Festival. All three shorts have received nods at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards, which made their Oscars chances more likely. However, none featured among the nominees. Here are the final 2023 Oscar nominations for Best Documentary Short Film:
1. The Martha Mitchell Effect
2. Haulout
3. How Do You Measure a Year?
4. The Elephant Whisperers
5. Stranger at the Gate
Best Film Editing
The frontrunner for the Best Film Editing category is Joseph Kosinski's Top Gun: Maverick, though the odds that Everything Everywhere All at Once takes home the award are almost equally strong. Elvis is also a top contender for the editing award at the 2023 Oscars, making for a close race. Top Gun: Maverick won Best Film Editing at the Saturn Awards, with nominations from Satellite and Critics’ Choice Awards. Everything Everywhere All at Once has been nominated in this category at the Satellite, Saturn, Independent Spirit Awards, and Critics’ Choice Awards. Elvis won Best Editing at the AACTA Awards and is also nominated in the category at the Critics’ Choice Awards. Here are the official 2023 Oscar nominations for Best Film Editing:
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Elvis
4. The Fabelmans
5. Tár
Best Costume Design
Costume design is key to placing audiences in a certain era, mood, or world, with Catherine Martin’s accurate costume design for Elvis receiving the highest chance of winning an Oscar for her work. Following Elvis, the frontrunners for Best Costume Design at the 2023 Academy Awards are Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Babylon. Throughout the awards season, these top contenders have received several nominations from prestigious organizations, thus increasing their chances to win the Oscar. Here are the 2023 Oscar nominations for Best Costume Design:
1. Elvis
2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3. Babylon
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Biopics and period pieces tend to fare well in the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category, though it’s Darren Aronofsky’s adaptation of the play The Whale that has the best odds of winning at the 2023 Oscars. The Whale has received nominations in the category from the Critics’ Choice Awards and Hollywood Critics Association Creative Arts Awards. Also strong contenders for Best Makeup and Hairstyling are The Batman and Elvis, the latter of which won in this category at the AACTA Awards. Here are the official 2023 Oscar nominations for Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
1. The Whale
2. Elvis
3. The Batman
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever