With the Golden Globes set to take place this Sunday, the televised awards that precede this year’s Oscars are about to start, and one of the most hotly contested races of this season is Best Actress. Since the fall festivals, Kristen Stewart has been the de facto frontrunner for her towering turn as Princess Diana in Spencer, but compelling challengers such as Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) and Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) have emerged.
Pundits all across the internet have weighed in on the conversation surrounding which Best Actress contenders are likeliest to net an Oscar nom alongside Stewart. Using GoldDerby as a resource - an awards prediction site that aggregates the opinions of these pundits and everyday users to estimate the odds that a contender will be nominated in a specific category at the Oscars or other various ceremonies - the top ten likeliest female leading actors to receive those Oscar nods this year have been ranked and revealed.
Frances McDormand - The Tragedy Of Macbeth
Oscar winner Joel Coen provides his take on William Shakespeare’s iconic play The Tragedy of Macbeth in this year’s audacious adaptation, and though Denzel Washington plays the title role in riveting fashion, Frances McDormand is not to be underestimated as the malicious Lady Macbeth, pushing her husband into horrific deeds.
As the “surprise” Best Actress winner of last year’s Academy Awards for her performance in Chloé Zhao’s Nomadland, this three-time Oscar recipient (also for Fargo and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) is never to be counted out, even if she’s failed to show up as a Golden Globes or Critics Choice nominee, unlike many of her competitors.
Jennifer Hudson - Respect
Respect is a biopic that chronicles the life of music legend Aretha Franklin, played here by Oscar winner Jennifer Hudson (for 2007's Dreamgirls), who was handpicked by the “Queen of Soul” herself. The film also stars acting icons like Forest Whitaker and Audra McDonald as Franklin’s father and mother, respectively.
In such a big, “baity” role in a film in the Oscars’ favorite genre (biopics), it makes sense that Hudson would be a top contender to land a Best Actress nomination, even before factoring in her status as a previous Oscar winner. While she’s been unable to pick up nominations from the Golden Globes or Critics Choice yet, she’s still one to watch out for.
Rachel Zegler - West Side Story
2021’s West Side Story is legendary director - and two-time Oscar winner - Steven Spielberg’s adaptation of the acclaimed 1957 stage musical of the same name (and the second film adaptation following the Best Picture-winning 1961 feature). It centers around the rivalry between two gangs, the Jets and the Sharks, and the two lovebirds caught in the middle of the melee - the white Tony and the Puerto Rican María.
In her feature film debut, newcomer Rachel Zegler plays María, and she provides the film with its stirring soul, delivering a powerhouse performance that has already received rave reviews. With a win from the National Board of Review, a nomination from the Golden Globes, and a nod from Critics Choice (in the Young Actor category) under her belt, she may be the rare Oscar acting nominee to earn a nod on their first film role.
Alana Haim - Licorice Pizza
Licorice Pizza is beloved auteur Paul Thomas Anderson’s ninth feature film, centering around the coming-of-age of a child actor named Gary Valentine (played by Cooper Hoffman, son of the late, great Philip Seymour Hoffman) and a wayward young woman named Alana Kane (played by Alana Haim, of rock band Haim fame), as they fight, flirt, and frolic across the San Fernando Valley.
The feature represents the film debut of both Hoffman and Haim, but it’s the latter who has generated the most individual buzz this awards season, netting a win (alongside Hoffman) for “Best Breakthrough” from the National Board of Review and Best Actress nominations from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice. Though she may be a new name, she could quite easily crash this category when all is said and done.
Penélope Cruz - Parallel Mothers
Parallel Mothers is the latest feature film from Oscar winning writer/director Pedro Almodóvar, telling the story of the ongoing relationship between two unmarried women who become pregnant by accident and later meet in a hospital room when they’re about to give birth: the middle-aged photographer Janis (Penélope Cruz) and a terrified teenager named Ana (newcomer Milena Smit).
Penélope Cruz is no stranger to Oscar success - having been nominated three times and winning Best Supporting Actress for Vicky Cristina Barcelona - so it wouldn’t be a shock to see her pop up this year, too. She hasn’t netted noms from major ceremonies like the Golden Globes or Critics Choice yet, but she has fared well with critics, recently receiving Best Actress recognition from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association.
Lady Gaga - House Of Gucci
House of Gucci charts the crumbling of the titular fashion house, as heir Maurizio Gucci (Adam Driver) marries the plucky Patrizia Reggiani (Lady Gaga) and she schemes her way into garnering the two more power in the industry before Maurizio makes the fateful error to end their relationship, sending Patrizia on the path to vengeance.
Lady Gaga is one of the biggest stars in the world, and her flashy performance in House of Gucci proves her acting talent yet again after her dashing debut in 2018’s A Star Is Born. Already the recipient of a Best Actress win from the New York Film Critics Circle and nominations from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, Gaga surely has her eye on another Oscar nod as well.
Jessica Chastain - The Eyes Of Tammy Faye
The Eyes of Tammy Faye follows the rise and fall of Tammy Faye (Jessica Chastain) and Jim Bakker (Andrew Garfield), televangelists who created the world’s largest religious broadcasting network in the 70s and 80s before succumbing to legal and financial troubles near the end of the 20th Century.
Jessica Chastain, a former Oscar nominee for both The Help and Zero Dark Thirty, has been netting Best Actress nods left and right for her fun and flashy performance here, already making her mark at both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice. Should Oscar voters respond similarly, it’d be quite odd to see her not crack the Academy’s line-up too.
Nicole Kidman - Being The Ricardos
Being the Ricardos is the latest Aaron Sorkin film, following comedians and television superstars Lucille Ball (Nicole Kidman) and Desi Arnaz (Javier Bardem) as they face a trio of crises that affect their personal and professional lives, all while filming a particularly problem-filled episode of I Love Lucy.
As Ball, Nicole Kidman defies those who criticized her casting by using every tool in her actor’s arsenal to deliver a daring depiction of the comedy legend. A four-time former Oscar nominee (and one-time winner, for The Hours), Kidman has already earned nominations from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, so an Oscar nod is highly likely to follow.
Olivia Colman - The Lost Daughter
The Lost Daughter is Oscar-nominated actress Maggie Gyllenhaal’s directorial debut, telling a story of an academic on a seaside vacation (Olivia Colman) whose trip takes a dark turn when her obsession with a young mother (Dakota Johnson) forces her to reckon with poor choices she’s made in her past.
A former Oscar winner for The Favourite - and a nominee last year as well for The Father - Colman is quickly becoming one of the most sought-after stars in the industry, and her performance here has received the praise a Best Actress contender can only dream of (along with nominations from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice). It’d be quite a shock if another Oscar nod isn’t next.
Kristen Stewart - Spencer
Spencer is director Pablo Larraín’s dark biographical drama depicting the weekend in the early 90s in which Princess Diana finally decided to end her marriage with Prince Charles, putting herself on a path that would take her away from her chance to ever be queen and remain a member of the Royal Family.
Many were shocked when Kristen Stewart - of Twilight fame - was selected to play the Princess, but her performance made all these naysayers take their words back, as this powerful, haunting portrayal is next-level acting that is more than worthy of the countless critics awards it’s received - along with nominations from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice. While it remains to be seen if this race is truly all Stewart's, her Oscar nod is at least very secure.