Last Update: February 7, 2020
With the 92nd Oscars right around the corner, we're taking a look at Best Supporting Actress to determine who has the best chance of winning the award. Like all of the acting races this year, one name has emerged far ahead of the pack and is a virtual lock to take home the Oscar. Any talk about upsets seems foolish at this point considering the way the season's gone thus far. There's always the possibility of one here, but it would be a bold proclamation to go ahead and predict one. There are four names that will just be happy to be there on Oscar Sunday.
For most of the year, Best Supporting Actress was a very thin field, making it difficult to guess how things might play out. This category featured one of 2020's most notable snubs when Jennifer Lopez was overlooked for her acclaimed performance in Hustlers (despite Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild Award nominations). Lopez's omission from the Oscars was a huge surprise, considering how beloved her turn in the film was.
In the original version of this list published in October 2019, our top five was Laura Dern, Margot Robbie, Lopez, Da'Vine Joy Randolph, and Florence Pugh. We had 3/5 of the actual nominees correct.
Laura Dern - Marriage Story
Odds: -1202
Stars Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson (understandably) got a lot of attention for their career-best performances in Marriage Story, but Dern is the only one from that cast who seems safe to score a win. Like Brad Pitt, Joaquin Phoenix, and Renee Zellweger in the other acting categories, Dern has swept the season so far, notching key victories at the Globes and SAG on her way to her first Oscar win. She's a veteran who is due for an Academy Award, having been nominated twice before over the course of her excellent and well-balanced career.
The only time in the past decade when the Best Supporting Actress SAG winner didn't get the Oscar was... last year, when Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place) got the SAG Award and Regina King won the Oscar. But last year is hardly a precedent. That was one of the strangest awards seasons in recent memory, with King being snubbed by SAG. In contrast, Dern is winning everything, so it'd be a shock if she missed out on the Oscar.
Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit
Odds: +1355
In a year when Johansson scored her first two career Oscar nominations, she's poised to come up just short in both. Johansson is all but guaranteed to lose Best Actress to Zellweger, and she has to deal with her Marriage Story co-star Dern in this category. Johansson is great in Jojo Rabbit, injecting an emotional and human component into Taika Waititi's World War II anti-hate satire. She's arguably the most grounded character in the entire film, balancing out the zany comedy and humor with a poignant reminder of the horrors of the Holocaust. Jojo Rabbit doesn't work as well without Johansson's performance.
She'd probably be the frontrunner if it wasn't for Dern, but going home empty handed at all the precursors puts a real damper on her chances. Johansson might have better odds if Jojo Rabbit wasn't the favorite in Best Adapted Screenplay and the Academy felt inclined to give the film something. But it looks like Waititi will get an award for his writing to represent the film at the ceremony, and Johansson will have to wait until next time to try to win her Oscar.
Florence Pugh - Little Women
Odds: +3889
Pugh undeniably had "a moment" in 2019, appearing in a trio of well-received films: Fighting With My Family, Little Women, and Midsommar. She's also starting to build hype for her role in this summer's Black Widow. So, Pugh was omnipresent in the past 12 months, putting together an incredible run as she announced herself a rising star. Sometimes, a year like the one Pugh had is capped off with an Oscar win at a young age (think Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook), but that isn't happening here.
Snubbed by the Globes and SAG, the only major precursor nomination Pugh received this season was the BAFTA. That looks good on a résumé, but it's hardly enough to surge ahead of the competition. One thing working in Pugh's favor is she starred in a Best Picture nominee (the remaining names on this list did not), so it's clear Little Women had good support from voters. Still, Pugh has a lot of ground to overcome.
Margot Robbie - Bombshell
Odds: +2000
Given its subject matter (and the eerie transformation of Charlize Theron into Megyn Kelly), some pegged Bombshell as a possible dark horse Best Picture contender a la Vice. That didn't come to pass, but the film did get some traction in the acting categories. Theron was nominated in Best Actress, while Robbie got in here (beating out co-star Nicole Kidman, a SAG nominee). Robbie had a great 2019, also appearing in potential Best Picture winner Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. It feels like she'll win an Oscar at some point (she was also nominated for I, Tonya a couple years ago), but it's not going to be this year.
Like her other Best Supporting Actress nominees, Robbie has spent the season watching Dern collect the hardware and add to her trophy case. Without any big precursors going her way, this'll be another Oscar ceremony where Robbie goes home empty handed.
Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell
Odds: +4000
Clint Eastwood's latest drama was named to the American Film Institute and National Board of Review's top 10 list, but it was never pegged to be much of an Oscar contender. Richard Jewell largely went ignored for most of the season, save for a Golden Globe nomination for Bates. That's why it was a bit surprising when he was named one of the Academy nominees, taking a spot in the lineup many had reserved for Lopez or Kidman. Bates, a one-time Oscar winner (Misery), is Richard Jewell's lone Oscar nod.
Since the film had so little overall support, it'd hard to see a scenario where Bates wins this year. It'd be different if she was the one sweeping the precursors, but she wasn't even recognized by some of them.