Last update: January 27, 2020
Now that the 2020 Oscar nominations have been announced, we're taking a look at the nine films up for Best Picture, trying to determine which one has the best shot of winning. Another awards season is winding down to a close, with the 92nd Oscars ceremony taking place in just a couple of weeks. By now, just about all of the Academy Award precursors have weighed in and handed out their trophies, including the Golden Globes and various industry guilds. While there always remains the chance of a major surprise or two, these precursors have added much clarity to the race. Anyone who's been paying attention to them and Oscar history can probably make fairly accurate predictions now.
One category that's still somewhat open is Best Picture. To be clear, there are definite frontrunners in this lineup (as we'll illustrate in a minute), but the top is a pretty tightly-contested race and it'll be interesting to see what the Oscar voters do. Without further ado, here are our power rankings of the 2020 Best Picture nominees, from most likely to least likely to win.
For fun, these were the movies included on our original 2020 Best Picture predictions list published in March 2019: The Report, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Irishman, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ford v Ferrari, Little Women, Us, Jojo Rabbit, The Goldfinch, and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. We had five of the eventual nine nominees in March.
1917
Odds: -167
Sam Mendes' World War I drama was one of the final shoes to drop this awards season, and it was one worth waiting for. Presented as if it was filmed in one continuous shot, 1917 won critics and audiences over thanks to its incredible technical prowess and simple, yet riveting, story of two men going on a dangerous mission behind enemy lines. It won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama shortly before its nationwide theatrical expansion, boosting its box office prospects. 1917 rode the buzz and is a sizable commercial hit, which only helps here. Box office viability obviously isn't a prerequisite for Oscar wins, but it doesn't hurt.
1917 also won Best Picture at the Producers Guild Awards, which commonly is one of the strongest harbingers for the Oscars. Of the 31 films to win at PGA, 21 went on to take home the top Oscar (including the previous two recipients Green Book and The Shape of Water). Similar to the Academy Awards, the PGA votes with a preferential balloting system, indicating 1917 is how the consensus is leaning. Obviously, the PGA stat isn't flawless (recent PGA champs La La Land and The Big Short didn't win the Oscar), but 1917 reads as the safest bet.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Odds: +387
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood star Brad Pitt seems to be cruising towards a Best Supporting Actor win, but the film itself is facing a bit of an uphill climb to net Best Picture. At one point, Quentin Tarantino's love letter to the 1960s was the frontrunner in this category, but its odds took a bit of a hit since it missed at PGA. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood also lost the SAG award for Best Ensemble (that guild's Best Picture equivalent), suggesting that it may not have as much support overall as some might have initially thought. The Academy usually can't resist a movie about movies, but this one keeps coming up short.
What Once Upon a Time in Hollywood does have is a Golden Globe win for Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy, an important award that keeps its Oscar hopes alive. And even though Tarantino has won twice in Best Original Screenplay, the general consensus is he's overdue for one of the big awards (either Best Picture or Best Director). With Mendes leading the pack in the Best Director race, the Academy may opt for a Picture/Director split and give it to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Tarantino's latest will hope to follow the footsteps of Spotlight and Moonlight by overcoming a PGA loss.
Parasite
Odds: +360
Only the twelfth foreign-language film in Oscar history to be nominated for Best Picture, Bong Joon-ho's Parasite is truly one of the most unique cinematic offerings of the past year. It's been garnering heavy praise and support since winning the Palme d'Or at the 2019 Cannes Film Festival, impressing further on the fall circuit at venues like Toronto. This is a shoo-in to win Best International Film at the Oscars, but Parasite has so many fans, it feels like something that would thrive on the Best Picture preferential ballot. That would be an amazing, historical moment at the Academy Awards, but there are some things working against Parasite.
For starters, none of the previous 11 foreign-language Best Picture nominees won. Roma arguably came close last year, but only got Best Director. With Parasite a lock for Best International Film, the Academy may decide to spread the wealth a bit. It also came up short at PGA, which is another hurdle. Some Oscar prognosticators are pointing to Parasite's big win at SAG (where it earned Best Ensemble) as a sign it's going to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards, but that's not an ironclad indicator. The previous three winners of that award were Black Panther, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, and Hidden Figures - all Best Picture nominees that missed out at the Oscars.
The Irishman
Odds: +2504
In lesser hands, The Irishman could have been a disaster, but Martin Scorsese delivered another crime epic masterpiece. Named best film of the year by the National Board of Review, The Irishman continuously racked up accolades all through awards season and gave Netflix another legitimate Oscar contender as the streaming giant continues to make noise on the awards circuit. The Irishman received praise across the board, with Scorsese moving the 3.5-hour film along at a great pace and the cast delivering outstanding performances. The Irishman has a ton of support and it's easy to see why it's one of the most nominated titles of the year (with 10 nods).
However, The Irishman's lack of meaningful wins at the precursors all but guarantees it is not going to win Best Picture. Oddly enough, considering what type of film this is, its best chances for a win is most likely Best Visual Effects. Scorsese did finally get over the Oscar hump a while back with The Departed, but Irishman fans still wish this one had a better shot. It would take an unprecedented surge on the preferential ballot for The Irishman to come out on top.
Joker
Odds: +1576
Undoubtedly the most polarizing Best Picture contender of the year, Joker announced itself as an awards player during the 2019 Venice Film Festival (winning the Golden Lion) and built its case from there. A film Warner Bros. was initially hesitant to even make became the most nominated title at the 2020 Oscars and is headlined by Best Actor favorite Joaquin Phoenix. That's quite a journey for a project that more than a few people raised an eyebrow at when it was first announced. Joker seized the zeitgeist and continues to inspire debate, making it one of the most talked-about films of 2019.
While it's great the Academy nominated another comic book adaptation for Best Picture (following Black Panther last year), genre fans will likely have to wait to see one break the glass ceiling with a win. The aforementioned preferential ballot really hamstrings a divisive work like Joker, since there will be many people who rank it quite low on their lists. Phoenix is all but assured the Best Actor win (even Joker naysayers agree he's phenomenal), but the film itself has some harsh critics who will be placing their votes elsewhere.
Jojo Rabbit
Odds: +6000
From the moment Taika Waititi's anti-hate satire overcame its initially mixed reviews and won the People's Choice Award at TIFF, Jojo Rabbit has been penciled in as a Best Picture nominee. But unlike last year's TIFF champ Green Book, Jojo Rabbit doesn't seem likely to win. While it checked off all of the necessary boxes with nominations (NBR, AFI, Golden Globes, etc.) and even got recognition with DGA and SAG nods, Jojo Rabbit didn't win anything of note. That hurts its overall Oscar case, placing it within the second tier of Best Picture contenders.
Bolstered by an uplifting message, Jojo Rabbit seems like the type of film that would do well on the preferential ballot, but it just couldn't get enough love. Fans of the unique World War II movie will have to hope for Best Adapted Screenplay, which is perhaps the category where it has the best chance (Waititi pulled off a tricky balancing act tackling this material). If the Academy feels like giving Jojo Rabbit something, it'll likely be that.
Marriage Story
Odds: +10000
Receiving nothing but raves as it toured the various film festivals, there was a point in time when Marriage Story looked like it could have been the one that surged ahead of the pack (especially on that preferential ballot). Despite all the widespread praise, Netflix's second Best Picture nominee of 2020 is bound to fall short. Much like Jojo Rabbit, this is one that appeared on all the right precursor lists, but couldn't net any wins - outside of Laura Dern taking home just about every notable Best Supporting Actress trophy.
Dern is more than likely going to win the Oscar, and she could be Marriage Story's lone victory of Oscar Sunday. Adam Driver has to contend with Phoenix (who's sweeping Best Actor) and Scarlett Johansson is up against Best Actress frontrunner Renee Zellweger. Writer/director Noah Baumbach has a shot at Best Original Screenplay (depending on how the voters want to go), but that's it. Marriage Story fans will be saddened by that turn of events, but it's still great Netflix had two films break through this year.
Little Women
Odds: +12000
During awards season a couple of years ago, Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird was an easy prediction for a Best Picture nomination. Her adaptation of Little Women wasn't as clear-cut a case. Despite near-unanimous praise from critics, Little Women had some notable snubs under its belt - including the Golden Globes - which seemingly hurt its Oscar chances. For a while, it looked like it wouldn't end up in this film, but it obviously secured enough support during preliminary voting. Its inclusion in the Best Picture list was a pleasant surprise for many.
But, with those aforementioned snubs and lack of any big wins at the precursors (no PGA), Little Women has little-to-no chances of winning Best Picture. Gerwig has a shot in Best Adapted Screenplay, but her second solo directorial outing is going to fall short here. While that's disappointing for Little Women fans, the fact Gerwig now has two Best Picture nominations under her belt lays the foundation for a convincing overdue case the next time she delivers a critical darling.
Ford v Ferrari
Odds: +25000
Ford v Ferrari is in a similar boat to Little Women. It had the positive reviews and was well-liked by many who saw it, but it scored more snubs than nominations at the precursors. James Mangold's racing drama missed out on the AFI's top 10 list and a Golden Globe nomination. Ford v Ferrari did rebound nicely with a PGA nod, but by then it was apparent this wasn't much of a Best Picture player. It was on the bubble for most of the season, though it somehow got through.
Everyone loves a great underdog story (like Ford beating Ferrari at Les Mans), but Ford v Ferrari doesn't even have a puncher's chance at Best Picture. This is one of the nominees that's just lucky to be there on Oscar Sunday, rightfully recognized as one of the year's best films. Perhaps Mangold and Matt Damon will fare better when they make The Force together.