Last update: February 3, 2020
Now that the 92nd Oscar nominations have been announced, we're looking at Best Actress and seeing who has the best chance of winning. Anyone who's been paying close attention to awards season so far knows that there is one clear, definite favorite who seems poised to run away with the Academy Award, but as we saw last year, there's always the potential for surprises. Just about everyone had Glenn Close finally winning her first Oscar for The Wife, but she lost to The Favourite's Olivia Colman. So while ranking the five nominees seems like a fruitless exercise, there remain the faintest traces of drama.
The original version of this list published in July 2019 featured the following top five: Cynthia Erivo, Cate Blanchett, Saorise Ronan, Renee Zellweger, and Meryl Streep. We had three of the five nominees predicted back then, with Blanchett and Streep missing out primarily due to the cold reception of their films. Where'd You Go Bernadette? and The Laundromat were pretty much doomed from the minute they screened.
Without further ado, here are our Oscars 2020 Best Actress power rankings, from most likely to least likely to win.
Renee Zellweger - Judy
Odds: -850
Though Judy is a fairly standard Hollywood biopic with Best Makeup and Hairstyling its only other Oscar nomination, Zellweger has transcended the film's critical standing to become the one to beat in the Best Actress race. She has swept all of the major awards to this point, picking up the Golden Globe, SAG Award, and BAFTA Award for this category. It is extremely difficult to make a case against Zellweger winning her second Oscar. Even the argument that she's won before and the Academy may want to honor someone else doesn't hold much water.
But last year's results set a precedent of sorts. Like Judy, The Wife wasn't exactly an Academy darling, with Close its lone nomination. Colman's The Favourite was nominated for 10 awards, including Best Picture. Zellweger's closest competitors this year were in Best Picture nominees, meaning their films have more widespread support, so it's possible (but highly unlikely) someone is able to pull off an upset. The key difference in this comparison, however, is that Colman won a Golden Globe in the Musical or Comedy category. Zellweger's beaten her fellow nominees for everything.
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
Odds: +875
Johansson is a double-nominee this year, but it looks like she's going to fall short twice. She's poised to lose Best Supporting Actress (Jojo Rabbit) to her Marriage Story co-star Laura Dern, and in Best Actress she ran into the Zellweger buzzsaw. If Judy hadn't come out this year, Johansson would probably be the frontrunner, delivering career-best work in Noah Baumbach's emotional relationship drama. She had a banner year in 2019, also appearing in Avengers: Endgame (the highest-grossing film of all-time). Sometimes, the Academy likes to reward someone having "a moment," and Johansson certainly did this past year.
The Close/Colman precedent from a year ago is the best shot Johansson has, since Marriage Story is up for multiple major awards. But that's a long shot. If Johansson had somehow won one of the key precursors along the way, this would be a tighter race with more variables to consider. However, the fact of the matter is she's spent the season watching Zellweger add to her trophy case. She's going to have to wait for another time to win.
Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
Odds: +1800
At only 25 years old, Ronan is already a four-time Oscar nominee and has quickly build an overdue case. It seems like it's only a matter of time before she wins, but it will not be this year. Ronan's spent the season in the same boat as Johansson, losing to Zellweger at the Golden Globes. What's worse is that Ronan has some key snubs for Little Women, including the SAG Awards. And since the Best Actress Oscar winner has never been overlooked for a SAG nomination, Ronan's chances are pretty much kaput.
The only possible saving grace for Ronan is that Little Women is up for six Oscars, and isn't necessarily a favorite in any of the other five. If the Academy feels like spreading the wealth among the Best Picture nominees, then Ronan could be the easiest place to recognize Little Women. But since Zellweger is getting everything and Ronan was on the bubble for even a nomination, she'll have to hope for better luck next time she's up for an Oscar.
Charlize Theron - Bombshell
Odds: +1500
Bombshell fell short of becoming this year's Vice on the awards circuit, but it did score a couple of nods in the acting categories. Along with Margot Robbie in Best Supporting Actress, Theron got a Best Actress nomination for her eerie transformation into former Fox News personality Megyn Kelly. But like so many other contenders, Theron's gone home empty-handed at several awards shows, watching Zellweger steamroll the competition.
As far as her upset chances go, Theron is at a disadvantage because she's won once before (for 2003's Monster). Johansson and Ronan have never won an Oscar, and they headline Best Picture nominees to boot. If Bombshell had fared better in terms of reception, or if Theron delivered a truly powerhouse performance that had everybody raving, then she might have better odds. There's no denying she's good in Bombshell, but clearly voters aren't infatuated with her take on Kelly.
Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
Odds: +2000
Erivo has a decent shot at winning an Oscar for Harriet, but it's for Best Original Song instead of Best Actress. The film itself never really took off, getting lost in the shuffle of the fall festival madness amidst its lukewarm reviews. Erivo was frequently cited as one of Harriet's biggest highlights, which is why she was also nominated for the Golden Globe and SAG Award in addition to the Oscar. But that isn't enough to make up the ground, especially since she hasn't won any of those precursors.
If Harriet had garnered more love across the board (like Marriage Story and Little Women did), then she'd have a better shot at pulling off an upset. But like the other non-Zellweger nominees, she's really just hoping for something incredible to happen on Oscar Sunday. Best Actress is Zellweger's to lose.