Oscars 2018: Which Films Can Win Best Picture?

With the Oscar nominations set to be announced on January 23rd, Best Picture nominee predictions are in full swing. The 2018 Academy Awards have been the subject of much discussion within Hollywood and the critical community alike. Much speculation has swirled around how the ceremony, to be presented by Jimmy Kimmel, will take on the aftermath of the Harvey Weinstein scandal and the countless revelations of sexual harassment and assault within the industry. With the heavy hitters of the season lacking in terms of diversity, many have worried the year will be a repeat of #OscarsSoWhite.There's also the fascinating reality that this season's awards offerings have been more varied, stranger and less formulaic than ever. Among the most popular contenders are sci-fi romances, genre-busting war epics, black comedies of historical events, touching LGBT dramas, and biopics of some of Hollywood's stranger figures. For the first time in many years, the Oscars have become truly difficult to predict.Related: Hollywood's Sexual Assault Scandals Create an Oscars DilemmaOscar season is usually an inevitable narrative of a handful of winners that everyone knows will win, but we still have to go through the motions of being surprised by it all. That makes the entire campaign a tad boring to watch. Fortunately, that process got a much needed shake-up last year when the flub that was seen around the world revealed the 2017 Best Picture winner as Moonlight. For months, many had been saying that Moonlight was the best film of the year, but that it would never actually beat La La Land - the perfect Oscar-bait movie, set in Hollywood and full of nostalgia and dreams. And then Moonlight actually won.This season, the critics' awards have been all across the board in essentially every major category. There are few certain front-runners, and the major films in contention have all received recognition in some shape or form. There's no single juggernaut in the race snatching up every title. There's still time for one big movie to pick up that mantle with the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards on the horizon, there's certainly a way for that momentum to build but for now, the race really could be anyone's.The Best Picture category can include up to ten nominees. Due to the preferential voting system for nominations, where films must earn either 5% of first-place rankings to make the list, it's been a few years since all ten slots were filled. It seems more likely this year than ever for the category to fill up. There's a lot of passion for the big films of the year, so anything could happen. We've compiled our ten choices for what we feel are most likely to be nominated for Best Picture. Nothing is set in stone, and for once, not being able to predict the winners is genuinely exciting.This Page: All the Money in the World, Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out and I, Tonya

All The Money in the World

When Ridley Scott announced that his latest film would undergo unprecedented reshoots in order to replace actor Kevin Spacey with Christopher Plummer, few of us could have predicted that it would go on to become a Golden Globe nominee mere weeks later. After the rush to switch out actors and recut the entire movie in the process, many feared that All the Money in the World, a biographical drama about the kidnapping of John Paul Getty III, would be unsalvageable -and yet Scott managed to pull it off. Reviews have been solid, if not as resoundingly positive as some of the other front-runners, but there's a lot of industry goodwill for Scott, and many remain dazzled by the sheer technical wizardry of such high-pressure reshoots and recasting. Plummer and Michelle Williams stand strong chances in their respective acting categories, but don't rule out the Academy wanting to reward Scott and the film itself for pulling off the seemingly impossible.

Call Me By Your Name

Since premiering at Sundance a whole year ago, Luca Guadagnino's touching romance Call Me By Your Name, starring Armie Hammer and TimothÃ©e Chalamet, has gained hordes of fans the world over. It's managed to maintain its momentum all year and stands as one of 2017's best-reviewed films. Chalamet is giving long-time favorite Gary Oldman a run for his money as the front-runner for Best Actor, but even if he doesn't pull that off, it seems likely that the film itself will rank in the top ten. Those who love the film are rapturous in their adoration of it, and that kind of passion is needed to get a film far.

Dunkirk

After a summer release that broke IMAX screening records and saw a box office gross of over $500m worldwide, Christopher Nolan's war drama Dunkirk became somewhat underrated with critics and awards prognosticators. It was a critical and commercial smash, nobody could deny that, but it began to feel like people were overlooking just how good the film is. Perhaps we all just took for granted the consistent excellence of Nolan's work, but we shouldn't underestimate how astounding an achievement Dunkirk is. What could have been a re-tread of every war film you've ever seen became an achingly tense drama of survival and failure, with some of the best cinematography of the year. Dunkirk forces the audience into the traumatic chaos of war and keeps the unease at near unbearable levels for over 100 minutes. Few other directors could pull it off, and it certainly deserves that credit.

Get Out

There are certain arbitrary rules that seem to define awards season: Movies released early in the year will be ignored; Horror never gets nominated; First time directors don't have a chance; Stories about racism should be told through a white gaze. What's astounding about Get Out is not that it breaks all these rules although it does that with panache but that it's helped to rewrite what we define as a prestigious movie. Jordan Peele's directorial debut is unquestioningly the movie that defined 2017. The whip-smart satirical horror has dominated the zeitgeist since premiering last February, and against all odds, it's swept many critics circle awards along the way. Many questioned its Golden Globes categorization as a comedy, but few could argue that Get Out deserved the nomination. The Academy still have a block when it comes to genre offerings Black Swan was the last horror film to get a Best Picture nomination, but one hasn't won the big award since The Silence of the Lambs but in a year where anything could happen, this is beginning to feel like a lock.

I, Tonya

It may be too soon in some people's eyes for anyone to make a film about the infamous ice skater Tonya Harding, but Craig Gillespie's comedy-drama on the rise and fall of the sport's most contradictory woman has been one of the season's true dark horses. I, Tonya was an audience favorite when it premiered at the Toronto Film Festival and its stars, Margot Robbie and Allison Janney, have been campaigning hard all season for it. Following FX's American Crime Story: The People Versus OJ Simpson, wherein the much-maligned prosecutor Marcia Clark got her due, many have felt that I, Tonya replicates that redemption narrative for Harding, exposing her tough childhood and abusive relationship that took place alongside the infamous crowbar to Nancy Kerrigan heard around the world. While its tonal problems remain, I, Tonya has reportedly been a big hit with voters thanks to screeners, so don't rule it out.

Lady Bird

Indie darling Greta Gerwig made her solo directorial debut with a touching dramedy inspired by her own life, and its resounding critical and commercial success has seen her unofficially crowned as one of the film figures of the year. Lady Bird, starring Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf, made Rotten Tomatoes history thanks to its rapturous reviews, and critics across America have rewarded it across the board. Lady Bird is a very easy film to love, and sometimes voters just want to choose the film they liked the most rather than play politics with their choices. Distributors A24 (who also distributed Moonlight) will be hoping to replicate last year's Oscars success, and Gerwig could very well become only the fifth woman in history to be nominated for Best Director.

The Disaster Artist

If you had told anyone this time last year that one of 2017's best reviewed and hotly hyped films would be a biopic of the making of The Room directed by and starring James Franco, the chances are you'd have been laughed out of the room. After premiering to stellar reviews at South by Southwest, The Disaster Artist, based on the book by Greg Sestero, became a surprise hit for A24, alongside Lady Bird. While the film may not be as polished or sharply crafted as other front-runners, it's a funny, strange love letter to the movie-making business, and the Academy are absolute suckers for films about films.

The Post

Of all the prospective nominees, Steven Spielberg's historical drama based on the Washington Post's acquirement of the Pentagon Papers is probably the only one that truly fits the traditional mold of œOscar bait. Indeed, with a cast that includes Meryl Streep, Tom Hanks and basically every character actor from prestige TV of the past decade, it's hard to overlook how much The Post seems like it was tailor-made to win awards. But don't let that put you off: Spielberg and company have pulled off this cerebral drama with real verve and landed its stars some of their best reviews in years. The Post is also a prescient effort, with the director open about wanting to make a film that spoke to the importance of freedom of the press in the Trump age. That could go over very well with Oscar voters and in such a jam packed year, The Post has potential to be a consensus pick.

The Shape of Water

Only Guillermo del Toro could make a Cold War drama about a mute janitor who falls for (and has incredible sex with) an amphibious creature being held captive by the US government and turn it into one of the year's most celebrated films. The Shape of Water is a true passion project for the director and that love has spread across audiences, including those who have previously been cynical of del Toro's efforts. Films like this don't tend to gel with Oscar voters it's too weird, too genre, hard to categorize, the whole fish-man sex thing but The Shape of Water has incredible support behind it and could signal the kind of Oscar love del Toro hasn't seen since Pan's Labyrinth. With more Golden Globe nominations than any other film this year, don't rule it out.

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Sam Rockwell and Frances McDormand look face to face in Three Billboards

Martin McDonagh already has an Oscar under his belt for one of his short films, but the critically acclaimed director and playwright has seen his career reach new heights thanks to the success of Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. The black comedy, starring Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell, won the top prize at the Toronto Film Festival and has six Golden Globe nominations under its belt. This is a film with strong support across the board, although it could be a controversial winner as many critics have discussed its questionable handling of race and gender issues. Still, it's a sharp comedy with dramatic punch and some of the year's most celebrated acting, and that's always counted for something with the Academy.

What films do you think will be nominated for Best Picture at this year's Oscars? Are there any that we missed out or choices you feel were wrong? Let us know in the comments.

MORE: Warner Bros. Announces IT Oscar Campaign