Best Popular Film Oscar: Predicting Previous Winners

With the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences adding the new "Outstanding Achievement in Popular Film" category to the Oscars ceremony, it's only natural that filmgoers might wonder what other "popular films" might have stood a chance had the category existed prior to this year. The Academy has been known to shy away from a certain pedigree of movies - namely within the action-adventure, science fiction, and fantasy genres - but quite a few overlooked movies could have stood a chance at winning Oscar glory had this new category been around.

The Academy Awards (or Oscars) are the cinematic equivalent of the Super Bowl or World Cup. They've been honoring excellence in cinema for the past 91 years, not only celebrating the technical craft of filmmaking, but the subjective art of storytelling, whether with actors, screenwriters, or cinematography. Now, adding the first new category since 2001's Best Animated Feature, the Academy will officially celebrate "popular films," though they have yet to specify the requirements necessary for what makes a movie qualify as "popular." Still, there will presumably be strict parameters for what it takes for a movie in this category to win. For example, just because Alice in Wonderland was one of the highest grossing movies of 2010 doesn't necessarily make it Oscar-friendly by default.

So, as the Academy looks to the future, let's look to the past. Most mainstream tentpole movies are no strangers to Oscar snubs, so it's only right to determine which of those movies might have actually had a chance had the current Board of Governors implemented this new category back when they were released. Assuming The Dark Knight would rule the roost for the 2008 release year, we're starting with 2009...

2009 - Avatar

Seeing as the Academy made one of its most aggressive category changes in 2009, allowing up to ten Best Picture nominees, as opposed to the usual five, it's fitting to start here. It's a year that was populated with major blockbusters - or "popular films" that were also "outstanding achievements," according to the Academy - including Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, Up, Star Trek, and Inglourious Basterds (which did, actually, get plenty of Oscar love, including a Best Picture nomination and a Best Actor in a Supporting Role win for Christoph Waltz). However, the defining "popular film" of 2009 was undoubtedly James Cameron's long-awaited 3-D game-changer Avatar.

Not only did Avatar become the highest-grossing movie of all time, grossing nearly $3 billion worldwide, it introduced a new wave of 3-D movies (thanks to innovative 3-D technology, courtesy of Cameron himself) and even its own theme park in Disney World. If that's not considered an "outstanding achievement" by Academy standards, then this category is really anyone's game.

Avatar was actually nominated for Best Picture but lost out to The Hurt Locker. Under the new category, Avatar probably would have won the Popular Film category, and may have been nominated there instead of Best Picture altogether.

2010 - Inception

2010 was ripe with sequels and popular IP's, with movies like Toy Story 3, Alice in Wonderland, Iron Man 2, The Twilight Saga, and Harry Potter rounding out the top five movies in the domestic box office. So, it's only natural that a movie as creative and original as Christopher Nolan's Inception would stand out and - given this new category - literally earn the popular vote.

The Academy has a hit-or-miss relationship with Nolan. They're happy to nominate him from time to time, but actually giving him the gold isn't something they're wont to follow through with - until Inception, at least. With eight nominations and four wins (notably for Wally Pfister's cinematography), Inception would no doubt earn the popular vote with the Academy had it existed back in 2010.

2011 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2

Daniel Radcliffe in Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2.

As hard as Warner Bros pushed for Harry Potter at the Oscars, the Academy just wasn't biting. From a technical standpoint, the series did a fairly commendable job racking up nominations (twelve in total out of eight movies), but never managed to crack the Best Picture category. However, had the "Popular Film" category existed when Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II was released, the movie stood a massive chance at earning the series its first and only Oscar.

It would have likely competed with movies like Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Bridesmaids, and maybe even something like Super 8 or X-Men: First Class, but this is one situation where the Academy would likely understand the value of the franchise, its effect on pop culture (like Avatar, it also spawned its own theme park), and how hard Warner Bros tried to give this series some Awards-friendly credibility.

2012 - Skyfall

Hollywood was fully stocked with major tentpoles in 2012. It marked the beginning of two major franchises (The Hunger Games and The Hobbit), as well as the end for two others (Christopher Nolan's Dark Knight trilogy and The Twilight Saga), and even assembled the MCU for the very first Avengers movie. And even though some of those movies might have had a shot at being nominated for the Outstanding Achievement in Popular Film category (namely The Dark Knight Rises, The Avengers, and The Hunger Games), the one movie that had the best odds at not only being nominated, but winning, was the latest entry in one of the longest-running film franchises of all time: Skyfall.

Not only a box office titan, but a critical darling, Skyfall also had the benefit of having a slew of Oscar winners in front of - and behind - the camera, including director Sam Mendes and stars Judi Dench, Javier Bardem, and Ralph Fiennes.

Page 2: Oscar Best Popular Film Winner Predictions 2013-2015

2013 - Gravity

In 2013, Alfonso Cuarón's visual masterpiece Gravity was nearly a shoe-in for Best Picture. Raking in seven Oscars (it was nominated for ten), it ultimately lost the Best Picture race against 12 Years a Slave. Still, that's not to say that it wouldn't have fared well in a popular vote.

Some of the most popular movies of 2013 included The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Frozen, Iron Man 3, and The Great Gatsby. That said, Gravity would no doubt have edged them out for a win given the Oscar love it had already been flooded with. Really, its biggest competition - assuming this category allows animated movies, which may turn out to be an exception - was Disney's Frozen. It epitomized what makes a popular movie (making a lot of money and being impossible to ignore), but Gravity was already an Oscar darling, and if nothing else, this win would have doubled as a sympathy vote from Academy members for denying it the Best Picture win.

2014 - Interstellar

Matthew McConaughey in a space suit in Interstellar

From the Academy's perspective, Christopher Nolan isn't quite worthy enough of an Oscar just yet. He's mastered the superhero genre, the war picture genre, and the science fiction genre, but they're still waiting on what they must presume will be his masterpiece. That said, from a "popular vote" perceptive, Christopher Nolan may well have earned himself a second win in the very same category for his time-and-space opera Interstellar had the "popular" category existed back in 2014.

The most well-received and popular movies that also stood a shot in this category included Guardians of the Galaxy, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1, and maybe even something like The Fault in Our Stars, to recognize mainstream movies that weren't necessarily massive blockbusters. Still, though, Interstellar would have likely earned the Academy vote, considering the pedigree of talent involved, as well as the fact that it had already earned a slew of nominations (as well as a single win for Visual Effects).

2015 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Hollywood loves a good comeback story. And while that might extend to the Academy to some degree, they're a bit pickier with the sort of stories they officially recognize. So, when the Star Wars franchise essentially rebooted itself following George Lucas' mostly underwhelming prequels, the Academy was generous with J.J. Abrams' Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The movie earned five nominations, but in technical categories (save for John Williams' score), with very little chance at edging its way into the Best Picture category. That said, had its been considered on its popular merits, The Force Awakens would have undoubtedly taken the crown.

To be fair to its competition, there's a chance that movies like Mad Max: Fury Road (which was already a Best Picture nominee and surprise favorite), Creed, or Paddington could have swept in as a favorite, but given Star Wars' longstanding history with the Academy, as well as the fact that it was 2015's box office champion (and, yes, how it's now spawning its own theme park), it's kind of impossible to beat Star Wars in a popularity contest.

Page 3: Oscar Best Popular Film Winner Predictions 2016-2018

2016 - Deadpool

Deadpool is not the typical Academy favorite. This would explain why the first movie didn't earn a single nomination. Still, that's not to say that it was left out of awards season altogether. It was nominated for Best Picture at the Golden Globes, earned Ryan Reynolds a win for Best Actor at the Academy of Science Fiction, Fantasy & Horror Films, and even won for Best Screenplay at the Empire Awards. So, there was love for Deadpool in the awards circuit - and this is precisely why it would have likely had a solid chance at earning an Oscar for Outstanding Achievement in Popular Film.

It might have faced off against movies like The Jungle Book, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, La La Land, or Hidden Figures, but Deadpool was unique. It had the guts to hide an A-lister like Ryan Reynolds behind a mask and prosthetics, it was a major success story born out of the high hopes of passionate fans, and it turned out to be way more successful than anyone predicted. For that, it would have deserved this win; and the Academy would have likely agreed.

2017 - Logan

2017 was a tough year (for awards season, not audiences). It brought Luke Skywalker back in Star Wars: The Last Jedi, it breathed new life into Jumanji with a successful sequel, it introduced the first mainstream female superhero with Wonder Woman, and it launched the horror genre back into the Oscar stratosphere where it belongs with Get Out. That said, there was one movie that broke new mold in the Academy, earning a superhero movie its first nomination in the Best Adapted Screenplay category: Logan.

Not unlike The Dark Knight, Logan represented a major shift in the superhero genre, exploring new avenues and themes that are typically reserved for a very different category of movies. So, even though its competition would have stood a very strong chance at taking the gold, Logan was already feeling the Academy love. It only makes sense that they'd transfer the votes Logan might have gotten for Best Adapted Screenplay to this one as a kind of last-ditch courtesy.

2018 - Black Panther

Even though there is still plenty of room for other movies in 2018 to earn the Academy's first official award for Outstanding Achievement in Popular Film, Black Panther will still win. It has fellow MCU cousin Avengers: Infinity War to contend with, and Mission: Impossible - Fallout is inching to the top of the year's box office earnings, but Black Panther still has them beat. It's had too much of a cultural impact this year to be forgotten come awards season.

Black Panther broke records at the box office, it was a critical darling, and a fan favorite. More importantly, though, it represented a major shift in the racially inclusive direction that mainstream Hollywood is finally willing to go. And even though upcoming movies like Aquaman, Bumblebee, and Mary Poppins Returns may well win the hearts of many, they'll have a tough time matching the cultural weight that's associated with Black Panther. Truth be told, the introduction of this category - even though it's not the Academy's fault - isn't exactly going to start off on fair footing, which speaks volumes about Black Panther's popularity.