Tenet, unfortunately, broke Christopher Nolan’s impressive career-long box office streak, but his upcoming biopic drama Oppenheimer can get the director back on track. There aren’t too many directors whose name alone can sell tickets at the box office, but Christopher Nolan continually brings in audiences by virtue of his reputation, regardless of the subject matter. For the past two decades, Christopher Nolan movies have made him one of the biggest blockbuster directors in Hollywood, earning him the status of being the 7th highest-grossing director in history.
While Nolan is known for his box office draw, his accomplishments are even more impressive when considering only three of his films come from an IP-driven franchise. The majority of Nolan’s movies are stand-alone high-concept, sci-fi, action, adult-oriented prestigious projects, which aren’t always apt to earn hundreds of millions of dollars at the box office. Since 2002, every single one of Christopher Nolan’s movies has made over $100 million, with Tenet, which was released at the height of the pandemic, even managing to outearn its budget in the international market.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, earning high at the box office has proved a difficult task for movies that aren’t based on existing IP or franchises, but Christopher Nolan is a worthy exception. The director’s next film is 2023’s Oppenheimer, a biopic drama with an all-star cast about the life of J. Robert Oppenheimer, the leader of the Manhattan Project and “father of the atomic bomb.” While Oppenheimer’s lack of action and sci-fi marks a new direction for Nolan, the film is still expected to earn big when it releases, which can finally resolve his box office streak which Tenet broke: before Tenet Christopher Nolan had never lost money on any of his films.
How Much Money Nolan’s Movies Have Made At The Box Office
As the 7th highest-grossing director in history, Christopher Nolan’s total earnings at the worldwide box office amount to $4.96 billion. For comparison, Steven Spielberg leads at over $10 billion, the MCU's Russo brothers follow at $6.85 billion, and Harry Potter’s David Yates stands at $5.97 billion. While his debut film, Following, only made $250,000 at the worldwide box office, the neo-noir crime thriller was produced with a budget of just $6,000 and premiered in a very limited release. Nolan’s next film, the highly-acclaimed Memento, earned $39.7 million at the global box office against a budget of $9 million. The Al Pacino-starring Insomnia then made $113 million against its $46 million budget.
Insomnia would be followed by Batman Begins, which is when Nolan’s box office prowess truly took form. The first installment in his Dark Knight Batman trilogy earned $373.7 million at the box office with a $150 million budget. Returning to his more high-concept crime thrillers, Nolan directed The Prestige for only $40 million, which earned him $109.7 million at the box office. Of course, Nolan impressively outdid himself with 2008’s The Dark Knight, which brought in $1.006 billion on a budget of $185 million. Inception, one of Nolan’s most beloved original sci-fi films, followed at an $832.6 million box office haul, with The Dark Knight Rises soon thereafter becoming his highest-earning film to date with $1.081 billion at the box office. Interstellar then earned a massive $701.8 million box office haul, with Nolan’s action-heavy war drama Dunkirk bringing in $525 million. Nolan’s outrageous, highly profitable box office streak was then broken by 2020’s Tenet, which earned $363.7 million with a budget of $200 million, Nolan’s second-highest production cost yet.
Tenet Was Nolan’s First Movie To Lose Money At Box Office
Although Tenet managing to bring over $300 million at the height of the pandemic –when the majority of big-market theaters were closed – is an extremely impressive feat, the unfortunate release date led to the action thriller being the first Christopher Nolan movie to lose money. Before Tenet, every single Christopher Nolan film broke even, with the majority of his movies making a massive profit. With a production budget of $200 million, when combined with the marketing budget Tenet needed to make approximately $400-500 million in order to break even, a number that was unreasonable considering the global circumstances of the pandemic. When considering how much it made internationally at the height of the pandemic, Tenet's spy thriller would have easily been able to break even under normal conditions. Although this meant breaking Christopher Nolan’s profit-only box office streak, the director can still fix his reputation with Oppenheimer in 2023.
How Much Oppenheimer Needs To Break Even At Box Office
Even though Oppenheimer isn’t set to release until July 2023, the movie’s box office prospects are already being debated. Oppenheimer is Christopher Nolan’s first movie in partnership with Universal Studios, as the director left Warner Bros. soon after it made the decision to release all of its 2021 films simultaneously on HBO Max and in theaters. The Dunkirk director was a vocal critic of Warner Bros.’ plan, whereafter he decided to leave the studio that supported him all the way from 2002’s Insomnia to 2020’s Tenet, with Christopher Nolan signing with Universal. However, while it’s unclear how much freedom Nolan will actually retain at Universal, the studio is still starting him off with a large production budget of $100 million. Considering the sheer number of actors that have been added to the Oppenheimer since it was announced, it seems a healthy portion of the budget is going to its casting, which is already proving to be a big draw for the Cillian Murphy-led biopic. Nolan also reportedly requested a $100 million marketing budget, which means the estimated total earnings Oppenheimer needs at the box office to break even is $400 million – approximately what Tenet needed to bring in.
Can Oppenheimer Redeem Christopher Nolan’s Box Office Success Streak?
While there’s still a year before Oppenheimer debuts on July 21, 2023, the safer bets on its box office earnings place the film’s expected gross at around $400 million, which is just about what it needs to break even. Although a typical sci-fi or action Christopher Nolan movie would easily be expected to earn about $500 million, Oppenheimer’s biopic drama genre is new territory for the director, even though it will still be based in scientific logic and massive bomb explosions. As such, even though Christopher Nolan’s name is enough to sell at least $150 million worth of tickets, audiences don’t have as clear expectations about what Oppenheimer will bring to the table. It’s predicted that Oppenheimer will bring in about the same as 2017’s Dunkirk, a new genre for Nolan that earned $525 million, but at least audiences knew that the director’s war film would be full of action.
Oppenheimer’s more dramatic biopic is less clear in terms of how it will utilize the director’s best tricks, but the cast alone is already proving to be a major sell to audiences. With Cillian Murphy, Robert Downey Jr., Black Widow's Florence Pugh, Matt Damon, Emily Blunt, and Gary Oldman (plus two dozen more) already signed on, Oppenheimer’s A-lister cast is apt to appeal to a variety of audiences. The subject matter has also been curious to many audiences, with much interest both in the U.S. and on the global scale about the making of the atomic bomb for World War II – a creation that greatly impacted the future of the entire world.
It seems Nolan has already made it a priority to secure a beneficial release strategy for Oppenheimer, as his demands to Universal stated that the studio couldn’t release another movie within the three weeks before and after Oppenheimer’s premiere. It’s unclear whether Universal will grant him a six-week blackout, but if so, the studio has significant trust in Oppenheimer’s success. The biggest test for Christopher Nolan and Oppenheimer’s box office success comes from its July 21, 2023 release date competitors, which include Mission: Impossible 7 (July 14), Greta Gerwig’s Barbie (July 21), and The Marvels (July 28, 2023). Oppenheimer’s success would be threatened by second-week numbers for Mission: Impossible 7, Barbie’s draw, and a possible second-week drop from its competition with the MCU’s The Marvels. Nonetheless, Oppenheimer’s prospects at the box office are still high as a Christopher Nolan movie, and if it can pull off the $400 million that it’s already expected to make, the director will be back on track with his box office profit notoriety.