Onward is projected to have one of the lowest box office openings in Pixar's history. After scoring another $1 billion hit (and another Best Animated Feature Oscar) with sequel Toy Story 4, the animation powerhouse has two original offerings on deck for 2020. Up first is Onward, a fantasy-adventure film starring Chris Pratt and Tom Holland as two elf brothers who go on a quest to find magic so they can complete a spell that brings their late father back for one day. Director Dan Scanlon drew from his own life experiences while developing the movie (his father died when he was very young), injecting Onward with a personal touch that will hopefully make it as poignant as Pixar's best films.
With a star-studded voice cast that includes Pratt, Holland, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, and Octavia Spencer, Onward ranks as one of the more anticipated films in the early part of 2020. Disney's put together a solid marketing campaign for the movie, punctuated by trailers and TV spots highlighting Onward's heart and humor. It definitely looks like it'll be a fun time at the theater when it opens next month, but right now it appears Onward will struggle to be a sizable draw.
According to Variety, Onward is projected to earn $45 million domestically in its opening weekend. Without counting Pixar's various theatrical rereleases over the years, that figure would rank as the fifth-lowest Pixar debut of all-time, sandwiched between Ratatouille ($47 million) and The Good Dinosaur ($39.1 million).
It is worth keeping in mind that there are still three weeks left until Onward premieres, so there's still time for these projections to change. Once word-of-mouth starts to spread and reviews come out, the estimates will likely fluctuate in one direction or another. Ideally, Onward will receive positive reviews, giving its modest projections a bit of a boost. Another factor helping it is the fact it isn't facing much competition; fellow family film Sonic the Hedgehog will have already done a majority of its damage by that point, so Onward will be able to dominate its target demographic. The other wide release that weekend is The Way Back starring Ben Affleck, which serves as counter-programming to Onward.
Still, this is an indication Disney didn't quite hit the mark with Onward promotion and failed to generate palpable excitement for the film. Some of this could be attributed to Onward being an original film, but Pixar is as recognizable a brand as some of Hollywood's biggest franchises at this point. Inside Out scored the biggest debut for an original movie back in 2015, proof that Pixar doesn't need Woody or Dory to attract large crowds. It'll be interesting to see how Onward actually fares at the box office come March, and how its numbers compare to June's Soul, the second Pixar release this year.
Source: Variety
