WARNING! This article contains major SPOILERS for House of the Dragon season 1 and George R.R. Martin's book, Fire & Blood!Considering Ned Stark was the face of honor in Game of Thrones, the Targaryen he would support in House of the Dragon’s civil war is significant to the themes that underscore the Dance of the Dragon’s division. House of the Dragon’s war will split the realm between loyalties to Queen Rhaenyra Targaryen, the declared heir of the late Viserys, and her younger half-brother King Aegon II Targaryen, who usurped the Iron Throne by claiming the right of male-preference primogeniture. As the Dance of the Dragons unfolds, the noble houses of Westeros will declare for either the Blacks or Greens based on honoring oaths, loyalty to Viserys’ memory, the precedent set for male primogeniture, or whoever offers the best deal.
While House Stark has yet to declare for Rhaenyra or Aegon in House of the Dragon’s season 1 ending, the Lord of Winterfell will come to play a significant role in the Dance of the Dragons. In House of the Dragon season 2, Rhaenyra’s son Jacaerys Velaryon will fly Vermax to Winterfell to treat with Lord Cregan Stark, whose father Rickon Stark swore an oath of fealty to Princess Rhaenyra 20 years prior. Although Cregan exhibits a more brutal side to House Stark than seen with Ned, Robb, and Sansa’s leadership in Game of Thrones, the family’s underlying values are the same in the prequel series, indicating Cregan and Ned would have similar reasons for supporting Rhaenyra or Aegon.
Who The Starks Actually Support In The Dance Of The Dragons
While Aegon’s Green party sent letters appealing to Cregan Stark in House of the Dragon’s season 1 finale, the Lord of Winterfell is ultimately swayed by the Black party’s face-to-face treaty. Jacaerys Velaryon spends time hunting, drinking, and bonding with young Cregan Stark in Winterfell, with George R.R. Martin’s Fire & Blood book indicating that the two men swear an oath of brotherhood bound in blood. Before the end of the visit, Jacaerys and Cregan seal the Pact of Ice and Fire, which officially declares House Stark’s support for Queen Rhaenyra Targaryen in the Dance of the Dragons.
Cregan Stark was already apt to declare for Rhaenyra considering his father had sworn an oath of loyalty to the Princess, but House of the Dragon’s Warden of the North didn’t confirm his support until he received a beneficial deal. The Pact of Ice and Fire stated that in exchange for House Stark’s support in the civil war, the firstborn daughter of Prince Jacaerys Velaryon would marry Cregan’s son and heir Rickon Stark. When Jacaerys’ hypothetical daughter reached her seventh nameday, she would be sent to live at Winterfell with the Starks. When Prince Jacaerys returns to Queen Rhaenyra Targaryen in House of the Dragon season 2, he’ll have successfully won the North’s armies to her cause.
Since the majority of the battles take place in the South, House Stark isn’t present for most of the Targaryen civil war’s biggest moments. While Roderick Dustin and the Winter Wolves become some of the fiercest warriors in the Black army, Cregan Stark likely won’t return to House of the Dragon until after the deaths of both Queen Rhaenyra and King Aegon II. It’s at this time that Cregan officially concludes the Dance of the Dragons, as he arrives at King’s Landing to raise Rhaenyra’s son Aegon III Targaryen to the title of King while punishing traitors from both sides of the war.
Cregan briefly becomes Hand of the King during the Hour of the Wolf, which sees Lord Stark prepare to execute those who fatally poisoned their own King, Aegon II Targaryen. While Cregan was loyal to Rhaenyra, his honor meant that he couldn’t stand by while men like Corlys Velaryon and Larys Strong conspired to kill the ruler they were sworn to. Ultimately, Cregan spared Corlys and executed Larys, after which time Lord Stark stepped down as Hand and returned home to Winterfell. Since Jacaerys died in the Dance of the Dragons, the Pact of Ice and Fire was technically never fulfilled, yet Cregan maintained his loyalty to Rhaenyra and her heirs.
Ned Stark Would Support Rhaenyra (Because Of His Honor)
Much like his ancestor, Game of Thrones’ Ned Stark would have declared for Rhaenyra Targaryen in the civil war. Ned wouldn’t have necessarily bent the knee to Queen Rhaenyra because he believed she would be a better ruler, but rather because his honor would have dictated his support. House Stark swore fealty to Princess Rhaenyra Targaryen as the true heir to King Viserys, and the ever-honorable Ned Stark wouldn’t have dared to go back on his family’s word.
Ned also wouldn’t have supported Aegon usurping the crown simply based on his sex, as House Stark hadn’t set a precedent for supporting male primogeniture in the Great Council of 101 AC. Rather, House Stark favored Rhaenys Targaryen and her children as King Jaehaerys’ heirs over her younger cousin Viserys. Therefore, given Rhaenyra was King Viserys’ eldest child and declared heir, Ned and Cregan Stark would have considered her the rightful successor to the Iron Throne. Despite the fact that Ned was integral to Robert’s Rebellion, the stealing of the crown in the Dance wasn’t the same as Robert’s usurpation before Game of Thrones, as Rhaenyra wasn’t a tyrant or incapable of ruling like the Mad King.
While the Starks weren’t integral to many of the Southern wars given their geographic isolation, they typically ended up on the right side of history due to honor dictating their loyalties in the Dance of the Dragons and Robert’s Rebellion. However, Cregan and Ned’s relative Jon Snow would later harm House Stark’s honorable legacy by killing Queen Daenerys Targaryen. Although Cregan and Ned both took up arms against the rulers on the Iron Throne, they found it dishonorable to kill a king or queen, which is why they looked down upon the Kingslayers Jaime Lannister and Corlys Velaryon. For this reason, Jon didn’t live up to the honor that Ned and Cregan Stark upheld amid the calamities of war.
Would Ned Stark Support Rhaenyra's Bastard Children?
Honor and duty were key tenets of House Stark’s philosophy, especially for Ned, which is why his values were questioned when bringing home Jon Snow and calling him his bastard. In House of the Dragon, the fact that Rhaenyra’s eldest three sons are bastards nearly cost her the title of heir to the Iron Throne. The difference is that Rhaenyra’s sons have been declared legitimate by the crown, with both families claiming the children as trueborn Velaryons despite the well-known fact that they’re actually bastards of House Strong. If Ned had already sworn fealty to Rhaenyra and her Velaryon heirs after Viserys declared them legitimate under the law, he would be bound to his word to support them.
Additionally, Ned trying to disinherit Joffrey in Game of Thrones due to his status as Jaime Lannister’s bastard is different from Rhaenyra’s children being bastards in House of the Dragon. Joffrey’s only claim to the Iron Throne was through Robert, with whom he didn’t actually share any blood, whereas Jacaerys Velaryon’s claim to the crown is through Rhaenyra, who actually bore him. Joffrey’s true father was paramount to his inheritance, whereas Jacaerys’ parentage doesn’t truly matter as long as he has Targaryen blood from his mother. Also, since Laenor Velaryon is gay, Rhaenyra’s affairs weren’t inherently dishonorable, as she was ultimately upholding her duty to Viserys to bear heirs and strengthen her succession on the Iron Throne.