Movie theaters may largely remain closed until mid-2021. Ever since the coronavirus pandemic took a turn for the worse in March, the entertainment industry has been greatly affected. Theaters around the world were closed to slow the spread of COVID-19, forcing studios to delay the release of several upcoming movies. There hasn't been a new wide theatrical premiere in more than four months, and right now it's unknown when it will be safe for theaters to be up and running again.
Tenet and Mulan are currently scheduled to come out in August, poised to be the first major movies to welcome audiences back to the multiplex. Unfortunately, coronavirus cases in America are spiking again, leading key markets like New York and California to keep theaters closed for the time being. In all likelihood, there will be more release date delays over the next few weeks, but there's a chance some of 2020's most-anticipated movies will have to wait until next year to finally come out.
The New York Times' Brooks Barnes took to Twitter to share a statement from analyst Doug Cruetz. In it, Cruetz paints an unflattering picture of when viewers can expect to return to movie theaters across the country. Check out Barnes' post in the space below:
It should be noted Cruetz's quote is not confirmation movie theaters will stay closed into 2021, but what he's saying makes sense. A number of the films that have been delayed, including Tenet, Mulan, and Wonder Woman 1984, are massive tentpoles with production budgets as high as $200 million. It's been reported Tenet needs to gross $800 million worldwide to break even, so it wouldn't do WB much good to release it at a time when theaters need to limit attendance. That, combined with the fact some people may be unwilling to go to a theater in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, means any movie that comes out in 2020 will almost definitely earn less money than it would under normal circumstances. Since Hollywood is a business, it's logical studios would want their movies to debut when they stood a chance to have higher grosses.
During the pandemic, studios have opted to release some titles on-demand or via streaming services. However, those movies have almost exclusively been smaller titles that had modest box office prospects to begin with (i.e. Trolls World Tour, Scoob!). Unless something really unforeseen happens, the likes of Disney and Warner Bros. are going to stand by their commitment to releasing their tentpoles on the big screen, which will allow them to recoup their investments. The only question is when exactly viewers will be able to see these films in theaters. If multiplexes stay closed until mid-2021, then next year's proposed release calendar would be in a massive state of flux.
Source: Brooks Barnes