Would the Mission: Impossible series still be such a major success had Jeremy Renner taken over from Tom Cruise? Mission: Impossible III from 2006 is an important entry in the series, which not only marked the directorial debut of J.J. Abrams but also humanized Cruise's IMF agent Ethan Hunt in a major way. However, the sequel was a financial disappointment upon release, which led to studio Paramount severing business ties with Cruise after 14 years.
They blamed the movie's performance on a backlash to Cruise's public persona, including his infamous couch jump on Oprah. When Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol was being developed, the studio brought Cruise - who may have spoiled Hunt's ending - back but only so he could pass the torch. The plan was for Jeremy Renner, who was coming off the acclaim of 2009's The Hurt Locker, to be introduced as a new agent named Brandt, and that the sequel would end with Hunt becoming the new IMF Secretary.
Despite this directive, neither director Brad Bird nor Cruise took it very seriously, and as the story was being developed during filming, it was clear Hunt was still very much the center of the series. The series has since become more successful than ever with Cruise in the lead, but would the Mission: Impossible movies still be so popular had Renner's Brandt actually taken over? Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol not only rescued the series but Cruise's career too. It was the star's first major success in years, and it was sold on his star power and willingness to do wild stunts such as climbing the Burj Khalifa. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and Fallout saw more incredible stunts such as Cruise's Hunt hanging from the side of a plane as it took off. Fallout itself proved just how much Cruise matters to the series, as it became the highest-grossing entry to date.
While Jeremey Renner later returned for 2015's Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation he was absent from Fallout due to commitments with the MCU. While it's impossible to know how the franchise would have developed with Renner taking over, it's also reasonable to state that the actor isn't quite on the same movie star level as Cruise. Part of the Mission: Impossible franchise's appeal is Cruise's willingness to do stunts and the charisma he brings to the role. Renner's Brandt, on the other hand, was a more by the book kind of agent, and while he could have evolved to be more like Hunt in later sequels, Renner probably wouldn't - and understandably so - have been as eager to do the dangerous stunts Cruise is famed for.
Renner also attempted to take over another action franchise with 2012's The Bourne Legacy. While the actor was solid in the lead, he was stuck in a flat thriller that proved the series needed Matt Damon's Jason Bourne to work. Renner has enjoyed success outside of the MCU with projects like Arrival or Wind River, but a series like Mission: Impossible needs an actor like Cruise driving it. A Renner-fronted Mission: Impossible series likely won't be going from strength to strength like Cruise's era has been, so ultimately, things worked out for everyone.