The MCU's masterplan is a myth. In 2008, Marvel Studios gambled the house on a new shared universe model. Nobody was entirely sure how things were going to pan out, as the new studio's ambition dwarfed anything seen before in Hollywood. But the MCU's success story was sealed in 2012, when The Avengers—the crown of Phase 1—grossed over $1.5 billion in the global box office. Since then, Marvel's mystique has grown with every year.

It's now commonplace to hear fans discuss Marvel's so-called "masterplan". The general assumption appears to be that the MCU is fully planned out years into the future, with everything from upcoming movies to major character arcs decided years in advance. Every scene in the latest Marvel movie or Disney+ TV show is combed through in the hopes of spotting Easter eggs that point the way to the franchise's future. It's easy to see how this idea has taken hold; after all, 2010's Iron Man 2 featured a SHIELD hotspot map that hinted at Wakanda, eventually introduced five years later in Avengers: Age of Ultronand potentially Atlantis, which is expected to debut 12 years later in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.

Related: MCU Phase 4 Is Delivering On Canceled Marvel Plans From 2004

While this view of the MCU is fully understandable, it's also completely wrong. Like any film franchise, the MCU exists in the context of an ever-changing popular culture, and producers, directors, writers and production teams need to have the freedom to react to changes in that context. The reality is very different - and, frankly, far more impressive.

Why People Believe The MCU Has A Future Masterplan

Avengers 2012 Thanos Cameo

It's not hard to see why many viewers assume Marvel Studios has a detailed long-term plan. There's a sense in which the entire MCU was born from Iron Man's post-credits, which introduced Samuel L. Jackson as the franchise's Nick Fury and welcomed viewers into a wider universe. The narrative thread of Fury's Avengers Initiative ran through the MCU Phase 1, building up to a climax in 2012's The Avengers. But even this film ended in setup, with a post-credits scene introducing Thanos the Mad Titan. Audiences who were unfamiliar with the comics had no idea who the purple guy in a chair was, but to comic book readers, the direction was clear.

This direction was confirmed in 2014, when Marvel Studios announced its entire Phase 3 slate - running all the way up to 2019. This wasn't the first time a studio had made a bold five-year presentation, but in this case the announcement also signified a general sense of direction. The Avengers may have been the climax of Phase 1, but the end of Phase 3 was even bigger; the two-part event simply known at the time as Avengers: Infinity War. The Phase 3 announcement encouraged viewers to treat each movie as a step in the journey, with the final battle against Thanos as the ultimate destination. Marvel went on to deliver that promise. When Avengers: Endgame was released in 2019, it was everything people had hoped for, hitting all the right narrative beats and playing off character arcs that had been apparently building for over a decade.

Evidence The MCU Masterplan Is A Myth

On close examination, though, it's pretty clear the MCU has never been planned out in that kind of detail - and, indeed, the decision-makers at Marvel have a lot more flexibility than is generally assumed. With the benefit of hindsight, after all, only one of Phase 1's post-credits scenes makes senseIron Man made it sound like Nick Fury was already working with a team of superheroes when Tony Stark was actually his first recruit, The Incredible Hulk required an entire one-shot to make sense of it, and Loki still needed to use his scepter to control Dr. Selvig in The Avengers in spite of apparently already possessing him in Thor's post-credits scene. The only one that really pays off is Iron Man 2, which served as a direct setup for Thor.

Related: Phase 4 Has 2 New Characters Stronger Than The MCU Hulk

Another perfect example is the characterization of Thanos himself. In Avengers: Infinity War, he was introduced as a madman who believed half the living creatures in the universe needed to be killed to ensure population didn't outstrip resources on a galactic scale, resulting in the extinction of all life. He may have been insane, but he believed himself a servant of life. In contrast, The Avengers set up a comic-book-accurate Thanos who's in love with the avatar of Death, Guardians of the Galaxy built on this by establishing him as a monster who'd slaughtered Gamora's entire race, and Gamora's history with the Soul Stone is essentially retconned into her story. There was very little payoff for any of the MCU's Thanos setup - but most people didn't notice, because the film was simply so good.

2014's Phase 3 announcement serves to illustrate Marvel's flexibility as well. Marvel's unprecedented deal with Sony meant Spider-Man was added into the mix, an Ant-Man sequel was added, and Inhumans got cut - eventually becoming a failed Marvel Television show. Even the core idea of Avengers: Infinity War wound up in flux, with Marvel eschewing the teased two-parter in favor of films that stood apart thematically a little more. The Phase 3 announcement meant audiences could see Marvel adapt their plans in real-time - which perhaps explains in part why Marvel hasn't made similar Phase 4 announcements, instead preferring to allow viewers to look just a couple of years ahead at the very most (although the COVID-19 pandemic may also have something to do with a lack of long-term reveals as well). Marvel's Phase 3 plans changed markedly over the years, and there's no reason to assume Phase 4 is any less fluid.

How Marvel Really Plans Out The MCU

All this naturally raises an obvious question—if the MCU masterplan is a myth, how does the studio really plan things? Marvel Studios president Kevin Feige has consistently suggested he tends to work to a five-year plan, and it's fairly specific in terms of the details. But there'll still be a lot of flexibility built into this, allowing Marvel to process fan reactions. That was certainly the case during Phase 1, with writer Drew Pearce admitting a Runaways movie got shelved because the focus on the Avengers was paying off. According to Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame co-director Joe Russo, it's still true now. Speaking at the Sands International Film Festival of St. Andrews in Scotland, Russo insisted Marvel's plans are fluid.

"The way it works at Marvel, and I'm sure at some point somebody will talk in detail about this, but part of Kevin [Feige]'s brilliance is that there isn’t really a plan. There's an idea, but you can't have a plan if the movie you’re making tanks. There’s no plan after that. Right? So, it's really about, as the movie succeeded, there was sort of an enthusiasm about well, what else could we do? And then that's when new ideas would come out, And there was hopes. Oh, we hope one day that we can get to the story, if we keep doing this right maybe we could all get there, you know, like Infinity War and Endgame. But a lot of the stuff was made up in between the movies. And some of the best call forwards or callbacks were thought of after the fact."

Related: Phase 4 Shows The Avengers Learned Nothing From Thanos & Infinity War

This is undeniably a lot closer to the truth than the idea of an MCU masterplan. By this interpretation, it's probably no coincidence Captain America 4 wasn't announced until after Marvel had seen reactions to The Falcon & the Winter Soldier, allowing them to lock in Sam Wilson's future as Captain America. And the future of characters like Sersi and Druig is probably still being decided, after the critical and popular reactions to The Eternals and what is generally seen as its disappointing box office performance. Such an approach is actually better, in that it gives creators - writers, directors, and production teams - a lot more flexibility.

This also means a lot of Marvel's Easter eggs and connectivity should be seen as "happenstance" according to Russo. He points to the idea the Winter Soldier killed Tony Stark's parents, alluded to in Captain America: The Winter Soldier; after the film's release, Marvel realized this could provide a very personal reason for Tony Stark and Steve Rogers to clash in Captain America: Civil War. Many Easter eggs are probably designed to leave Marvel a lot of wriggle room for interpretation; the studio made the mistake of being too specific in Phase 1, causing a notable Infinity Gauntlet plot hole, and they're unlikely to make the same mistake again. Marvel's genius lies in flexibility.

What Marvel's Lack of Masterplan Means For MCU Phases 4 & 5

doctor strange in the multiverse of madness(2)

This has major implications for understanding Marvel's plans for Phases 4 and 5. The Phase 4 slate has been in a remarkable state of flux even by Marvel standards, because it was originally supposed to be launched by Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - which would kick off a number of cosmic spin-offs. That film was delayed when James Gunn was fired by Disney after past tasteless jokes on social media resurfaced, although he's since been rehired. The entire multiverse theme that's been central to Phase 4 seems to have been a pivot, which perhaps explains why it hasn't been handled consistently in the different films and TV shows. The MCU's multiverse is something of a mess, with Marvel only holding a creative summit to iron out the basic rules after Spider-Man: No Way HomeDoctor Strange in the Multiverse of MadnessLoki, and Marvel's What If..? season 1 had already wrapped production.

Looking beyond the multiverse and the next five years, Feige has suggested the studio does have ideas penciled in for well over a decade. But these shouldn't be understood as already fixed; rather, at all times Marvel will be watching to see what resonates with viewers, and they'll likewise be adapting to changes in popular culture. Production has now begun on Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 opening up new cosmic opportunities. Marvel has recently begun work on its first cosmic Disney+ TV show, and the timing seems appropriate. But this doesn't mean the studio has simply lifted and dropped the original cosmic ideas from the beginning of Phase 4 to the beginning of Phase 5; the world has changed a lot since then, and Marvel's plans will have done so as well. Viewers would be wise not to take statements from years ago as gospel.

Related: Marvel Continues MCU Phase 4's Endgame Retcon For Ant-Man

There is, of course, one final change that has happened in the MCU over the last few years. The launch of Disney+ means the MCU has become a true transmedia initiative, its stories told in more than just one medium. The first wave of MCU Disney+ TV shows have commonly been described as six-hour movies, and there's probably a reason for that. This approach allows Marvel to transition between the two mediums with ease, repurposing an idea for a film and turning it into a TV series instead, or vice versa. Going forward, it will be very interesting indeed to see if some rumored MCU franchises take on a different form to the one audiences are expecting.

More: Marvel's Phase 5 Movies Are Already More Exciting Than Phase 4

Key Release Dates