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Box Office Prediction - Maze Runner: The Death Cure vs. Jumanji

Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week's box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from last weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of January 26 - 28, 2017.

This weekend, Maze Runner: The Death Cure opens in 3,787 theaters and Hostiles debuts in 2,815 locations.

#1 - Maze Runner: The Death Cure

Coming in first should be Maze Runner: The Death Cure (read our review), which is the third installment of the Maze Runner trilogy. Fox was looking to cash in on the young-adult fad spurred by the success of The Hunger Games when they green lit these adaptations, and a lot has changed in the time since. With Hunger Games itself fizzling out towards the end and Divergent not even completing its series due to lack of interest, there isn't much demand for this kind of material. Not only is the YA craze over, Death Cure was delayed about a year after star Dylan O'Brien was injured on-set. 2015's The Scorch Trials performed well below its predecessor, earning only $81.6 million domestically. The extended gap between installments could hurt the property's commercial prospects.

Still, late January is the ideal window to release a film like this. Holiday blockbusters Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle have cooled down after dominating the marketplace for weeks, and there isn't much else in the way of competition for Maze Runner. Because of the mixed critical reception, it's going to have a difficult time breaking out of its niche, but The Death Cure should still come out on top. Estimates have it pegged for roughly $21 million in its first three days.

#2 - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Look for the three-time reigning champ, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (read our review) to slide to second in its sixth weekend. The adventure film ended up being one of 2017's most noteworthy surprises, tallying $320.5 million in the U.S. as of this writing. Since the multiplex is a bit barren nowadays, Jumanji should continue to do solid business, but its time as the champ is over since it's been out for a while now.

#3 - The Post

We believe Steven Spielberg's The Post (read our review) will come in third. The historical drama surprisingly scored just two Oscar nomination this week, but they were in key races. The Post is one of the nine films in the running for Best Picture, and star Meryl Streep earned yet another nod in her illustrious career. As cinephiles look to catch up on the Academy's contenders, they should be seeking out screenings of the post, giving it a post-Oscars boost at the box office.

#4 - 12 Strong

Our pick for fourth is 12 Strong (read our review), which debuted in second with $15.8 million last week. Though the war drama certainly has its fans, the mixed critical reaction didn't do it many favors. 12 Strong won't have legs, but it should stick around for at least one more week.

#5 - The Greatest Showman

Rounding out the top five should be The Greatest Showman (read our review), which has done quite well for itself, quietly earning $116 million domestically since its Christmas debut. Though the film received a lukewarm response, it seems to have connected with audiences and keeps hanging around.

Last Week's Recap

Our Picks

  • Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
  • 12 Strong
  • The Post
  • The Commuter
  • Den of Thieves

Actuals

  • Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
  • 12 Strong
  • Den of Thieves
  • The Post
  • The Greatest Showman

Next week: Winchester and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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Box Office Prediction - Maze Runner: The Death Cure vs. Jumanji