Here's how much The Matrix Resurrections cost to make, and what it needs to earn to be a box office success. Eighteen years after the original Matrix trilogy concluded, director Lana Wachowski returns to the groundbreaking sci-fi franchise with a new installment that promises to be a very meta take on the legacy sequel concept. The Matrix Resurrections trailers have highlighted a mind-bending story, remixing elements from the previous films as Neo and Trinity have to once again discover the truth of the Matrix.
The original Matrix was one of the biggest hits of 1999, earning $466.6 million worldwide against a $63 million production budget. The Matrix Reloaded, the first sequel released in 2003, was an even larger draw, bringing in $741.8 million globally. Unfortunately, The Matrix Revolutions was a case of diminishing returns and set a new low for the franchise with $427.3 million. That up-and-down performance raises questions about how The Matrix Resurrections will fare commercially, especially with the pandemic still a factor to consider. Warner Bros. likely needs it to be a decent hit due to production costs.
No reported budget figure for The Matrix Resurrections is available yet, but looking at similar titles can provide a ballpark. The first two sequels cost $150 million each, which is a good starting point for Resurrections. Wachowski is a director who frequently plays with nine-figure budgets. Speed Racer cost $120 million, Cloud Atlas' budget was around $146 million, and Jupiter Ascending cost between $176-200 million. Other recent sci-fi movies like Dune ($165 million) and Tenet ($200 million) are also in that range. We will update this post when a Matrix Resurrections budget becomes available. $175 million is a plausible number.
Since an official Matrix Resurrections budget isn't out, it's tricky to gauge what the break even point is. In all likelihood, the film will probably need to earn around $350 million worldwide in order to recoup its costs. That's a number the three previous installments reached, but it remains to be seen how successful Resurrections will be. The film will also be streaming on HBO Max the same day it opens in theaters, which could impact its opening gross. Especially with new COVID-19 cases spiking, some viewers may opt to watch it at home where it is safer. Still, audiences have shown a willingness to go to the theater despite COVID concerns. Spider-Man: No Way Home just had the second-highest opening of all-time. Dune managed to earn $393.4 million globally even with the HBO Max release.
Something else to keep in mind is The Matrix Resurrections is getting divisive reviews, with some critics taking issue with the film's action and meta narrative. The responses have been more positive than not, but word-of-mouth isn't as enthusiastic as it was for something like Dune and No Way Home. That could have an impact on The Matrix Resurrections box office, as moviegoers have other options to choose from this holiday season (some of which have earned near-universal acclaim). There will definitely be those who opt to see The Matrix Resurrections on the big screen, though like most genre tentpoles, its box office haul could be front-loaded. WB may need to hope for strong legs in order to turn a profit via ticket sales.
