After The Matrix Resurrections bombed at the box office, one wonders if a different version of Matrix 4 could've succeeded. In some ways, The Matrix Resurrections was always going to have at least somewhat of an uphill battle when it came to achieving box office glory. While 1999's original Matrix movie is still regarded by many as an all-time classic of the sci-fi and action genres, 2003 sequels The Matrix Reloaded and The Matrix Revolutions are two of the go-to examples when it comes to divisive franchise installments.
The Matrix Reloaded tends to be regarded a fair amount better than Revolutions, but either way, neither has ever approached the level of esteem boasted by their progenitor. As interesting as some of their other work has been, one can also easily argue that The Matrix was the peak of Lana and Lily Wachowski's directorial careers, despite being one of their earliest efforts. While some other Wachowski movies may have developed cult followings, it's quite likely they would've faded away from the spotlight by now had they not had The Matrix on their collective resume.
Mixed reputation of the prior Matrix sequels and the Wachowskis' filmography aside though, is it possible that a different take on The Matrix 4 could've performed better? Maybe, and it's even possible that in some alternate universe that's exactly what happened. Still, there were plenty of reasons industry prognosticators should've seen The Matrix Resurrections' financial failure coming.
Why The Matrix Resurrections Bombed At The Box Office
As one might imagine, a combination of factors played into the box office flop of The Matrix Resurrections. The most obvious one is Warner Bros.' 2021 release strategy of putting its theatrical movies on the HBO Max streaming service day and date with theaters. That likely cut into the box office, but it's not the whole story, as other day and date streaming releases performed better. There's also the continued coronavirus pandemic and the highly contagious omicron variant, which has theaters closed again in some areas, and moviegoers cautious of going to them in others.
Outside of that, the tepid reviews The Matrix Resurrections received also likely led some potential viewers to stay home. While certain franchises can overcome bad reviews, review scores do indeed help shape the narrative around a film going into opening weekend. Reviews aside though, The Matrix Resurrections made the bad in hindsight choice to open less than a week after Spider-Man: No Way Home, the biggest hit of 2021, and a movie that dominated the box office for a solid month. Add all these factors up, and what one gets is a recipe for Neo and Trinity's latest adventure to be dosed with box office poison.
Would A "Better" Matrix 4 Have Had Greater Box Office Success?
Obviously, it's impossible to be sure either way if another crack at The Matrix 4 would've turned out more successful than The Matrix Resurrections. That said, if the reviews for a different Matrix 4 had been as overwhelmingly positive as, say, Scream 2022, another highly meta "rebootquel" project, there's definitely a good chance that would've helped its box office fortunes. Thanks to the mixed to poor reputation of The Matrix Reloaded and The Matrix Revolutions, potential moviegoers probably put more stock into reviews before deciding to see Resurrections, due to possibly having been burned before by a bad Matrix movie sequel or two.
Another change that could've helped a different Matrix 4 be more successful is, to be blunt, if Lana Wachowski, Keanu Reeves, and company had made a sequel that was less about leaning on the fourth wall and more about giving long-time fans what they wanted. When a Matrix 4 was originally announced, many hoped to see Neo and Trinity back in black leather and beating up Agents, but what they got was a movie in which Neo and Trinity don't really get to act like Neo and Trinity until the last third. Once word of mouth got around about that, those less inclined toward metafiction may have been put off by Resurrections, whereas they would've been ready to plunk down some cash to see a more traditional Matrix follow-up.
How The Other Matrix Sequels Performed At The Box Office
How the prior two Matrix sequels performed at the box office is a tale of two releases, not too far apart in the year 2003. The original Matrix movie was a huge hit, earning $465 million worldwide on a budget of $65 million, a tidy $778 million today when adjusted for inflation. Riding the wave of that success, The Matrix Reloaded was a smash, despite carrying a much higher budget of $150 million, earning $738 million worldwide. That's over $1.1 billion in today's money.
However, when looking at the box office for The Matrix Revolutions, the effect of the mixed reception to Reloaded becomes apparent. Despite releasing only a few months later, Revolutions earned only $427 million worldwide, enough to make a decent profit after marketing costs are considered, but not a financial smash. Yet, when adjusted for inflation, Revolutions' total becomes $647 million, still absolutely crushing The Matrix Resurrections. Any way one slices it, Matrix 4 is a box office failure for Warner Bros.
Why The Matrix Resurrections Was Always Likely To Fail
The debate can and will continue as to whether a Matrix 4 that wasn't The Matrix Resurrections might've succeeded where it failed at the box office. At the end of the day though, a Matrix 4 becoming a hit was always a bit of a long shot. After 12 years, most had come to terms with the Matrix being a trilogy, and had accepted the final fates of Neo and Trinity. To undo those heroic sacrifices was always going to be a risk, and sadly, any explanation Wachowski and team came up with would've let some segment of the franchise's fanbase down.
Couple that problem with the fact that the Matrix trilogy is generally seen as having more underwhelming entries than good ones, and Warner Bros. was always taking a financial gamble by spending nearly $200 million on a new Matrix outing. The pandemic likely made their potential loss worse, but either way, The Matrix Resurrections could've easily failed even without a disease gripping the world. To most, the Matrix franchise was dead and gone, a relic of a time since passed. Perhaps it should've stayed there.