In a win for sci-fi fans, 2021 will play host to two major blockbusters likely sharing a lot of the same potential audience, The Matrix 4 and Denis Villeneuve's Dune. Both films seek to reignite the flame of a long-dormant franchise, and both are hoping that the same fans who made those franchises big in the first place come back to relive the glory days. The Matrix 4, which technically still doesn't have an official title, is the follow-up to 1999's The Matrix and its 2003 sequels The Matrix Reloaded and The Matrix Revolutions. Dune is the first of a planned two-part adaptation of author Frank Herbert's legendary novel.
It's been nearly two decades since a Matrix movie graced theaters, and while fans are cautiously optimistic, some do wonder where the story has left to go, especially after Neo and Trinity both died in The Matrix Revolutions. As for Dune, it was previously adapted into a movie back in 1984, directed by maverick filmmaker David Lynch. At the time, it was a critical and commercial flop but has since come to be regarded as a bit of a cult classic.
The Matrix 4 and Dune are both big-budget tentpoles for Warner Bros., and it's quite likely both will make lots and lots of money. They're both releasing in the fourth quarter of 2021, which begs the question, which sci-fi epic will perform better?
Matrix 4 and Dune Are 2021's Biggest Sci-Fi Movies
While 2021 will see a decent crop of sci-fi and sci-fi adjacent mainstream films hit multiplexes and streaming before the year is through, The Matrix 4 and Dune definitely have the highest profile of the bunch. It's no mystery why in either case. The Matrix still stands today as one of the most beloved sci-fi/action blockbusters in history, and also one of the biggest overall cultural phenomenons to come out of the 1990s. While The Matrix Reloaded and especially The Matrix Revolutions proved divisive, they were movies ripe to be discussed and debated among Matrix fans for decades to come. Any addition to that mythology will instantly have appeal to many, especially with original co-creator Lana Wachowski back at the helm.
In Dune's case, while some indeed enjoy Lynch's 1984 adaptation, as well as the 2000 Sci-Fi Channel miniseries version, most Dune devotees still feel that Herbert's lauded book has yet to truly be done justice onscreen. With acclaimed director Denis Villeneuve being given the freedom to craft an epic two-part film adaptation, many Dune fans are awaiting what could be a revelatory movie-going experience. The fact that the cast is bursting with beloved A-list actors just enhances that perception.
Will Dune Have A Different Release To Matrix 4 (& Will it Matter?)
One interesting factor to consider concerning the 2021 battle for sci-fi supremacy between The Matrix 4 and Dune is that despite both being Warner Bros. films, they might get quite different releases. While Warner Bros. announced after the COVID-19 pandemic devastated 2020 for Hollywood that all its 2021 movies would simultaneously go to both HBO Max and theaters, several reports in the months since have suggested Dune production studio Legendary Entertainment is not at all happy with that arrangement.
As recently as April 2021, it was again reported that Legendary was still in talks with Warner Bros. about Dune potentially going theatrical-only, while no such chatter has occurred surrounding The Matrix 4. One ace up Legendary's sleeve is the recent box office success of their Godzilla vs. Kong, at least by pandemic-era standards. However, Dune releasing only in theaters may not really matter all that much to this particular fight, as Godzilla vs. Kong showed that a big franchise can still draw audiences into their local multiplex despite COVID-19, and by December, the U.S. may be at or least near the practical end of the pandemic, thanks to the widespread dispersal of vaccines.
Matrix 4 vs. Dune: Which 2021 Sci-Fi Movie Will Be Bigger
With both The Matrix 4 and Dune boasting massive production budgets, it's likely the two may both end up huge when it comes to scope and scale of their worlds. When it comes to which will become the bigger box office hit though, The Matrix 4 seems like the more likely candidate, if only due to the franchise's history of financial success, and the fact that its appeal transcends the sci-fi genre. Dune, as many fans as it has and as well-regarded as the source material is, is definitely more of a niche property than something like The Matrix 4.
Plus, there's the unfortunate fact that despite how critically acclaimed director Denis Villeneuve's films tend to be, his past films weren't all box office hits. Even some of the ones that did do well were made on smaller budgets than Dune too, so didn't have to go as far to be profit machines. Plus, Villeneuve's last big sci-fi sequel, Blade Runner 2049, performed way below expectations financially, despite being widely praised, and even bringing back original star Harrison Ford.
Matrix 4 vs. Dune: Which 2021 Sci-Fi Movie Will Be Better
While The Matrix 4 has the clear advantage in terms of potential box office hit appeal, there's actually a very good chance that Dune might best it in the quality department. Despite his iffy box office record, Villeneuve is a sought-after, busy director for a reason: he's a very talented filmmaker. Couple that with him adapting one of the most complex and engaging, if also sometimes hard to follow, novels in sci-fi history, and Dune may well have the recipe for a truly great movie, an entry into the sci-fi canon that could stand the test of time alongside Herbert's celebrated prose.
Conversely, the plot of The Matrix 4 is still being shrouded in mystery, its two lead characters need to somehow come back from the grave, former third lead Morpheus (Laurence Fishburne) is now missing in action and, as already mentioned, The Matrix Revolutions left a sour taste in many fans' mouths. While fans certainly hope The Matrix 4 rights the ship, there's a non-zero chance it ends up another disappointing sequel to be released decades after the original franchise was most relevant. Of course, the most positive scenario would be both Dune and The Matrix 4 excelling both critically and commercially. Audiences and critics will decide if that came to pass by the end of 2021.
