Star Wars: The Last Jedi is projected to drop from first to third place in its fourth weekend, falling behind both Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Insidious: The Last Key. It's far from a sob story for the Rian Johnson-directed Last Jedi, as it's already over $1 billion worldwide and passed Rogue One to become the second-highest grossing Star Wars movie in North America. But its drop-off in just its fourth weekend is certainly an eyebrow-raiser, especially as it also has a hugely disappointing opening weekend overseas in China.
However, it also speaks to the success of Sony's Jumanji update, which is delivering some of the best numbers in the careers of its stars. Insidious 4, meanwhile, looks to capitalize on weekend school closures for younger audiences amid massive winter storms. That's in addition to the typically strong market for horror movies around the holidays, which Blumhouse Pictures has reaped the rewards for in recent years. The early numbers indicate that Insidious 4 will exceed expectations - and knock The Last Jedi down the list in the process.
As reported by Deadline late on Friday, Jumanji is expected to finally top The Last Jedi at the weekend box office for the first time after coming up just short over the New Year weekend (but winning on New Year's Day). Jumanji is set to earn $36.4 million at 3,801 theaters, compared to $23.8 million at 4,232 locations for Star Wars. But the real surprise is Insidious 4, which is projected to scream by early projections of $15-18 million and land in second with $25 million from 3,116 locations.
Deadline credits The Last Jedi's drop to third to the idea that most viewers have seen it 2-4 times by now. It also posits that widespread school closures on Friday - and the typically strong holiday box office for the horror genre - helped boost Insidious 4, which will already earn nearly triple its estimated $10 million budget (according to Box Office Mojo). Insidious 4 is set to deliver the fourth-highest January opening for a horror movie, behind Split ($40 million), The Devil Inside ($33.7 million), and Mama ($28.4 million).
Jumanji, on the other hand, will run its domestic total to $244.7 million and become the highest-grossing movie in the careers of both Kevin Hart and Jack Black. It's also the third-best total of Dwayne Johnson's career, behind only Furious 7 ($353 million) and Moana ($248.7 million). Ultimately, all three movies can already call themselves legitimate box office successes.
Despite the huge $572.8 million domestic total for its biggest tentpole of 2017, Disney can't be pleased that The Last Jedi is already dropping to third place. But with Insidious: The Last Key drawing mostly poor reviews, there's a chance that The Last Jedi could retake second behind Jumanji in weekend No. 5 and continue to run up its undoubtedly impressive totals, even for a Star Wars movie.
- Solo: A Star Wars Story (2018) release date: May 25, 2018
- Star Wars 9 / Star Wars: Episode IX (2019) release date: Dec 20, 2019