Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel brought in a disappointing box office return for its opening weekend, proving that dual day-and-date streaming releases aren’t the real culprit for box office failures. The Last Duel is Scott’s period drama epic about a series of true events from medieval France, following Jean de Carrouges (Matt Damon) as a knight who challenges his former friend and squire Jacque Le Gris (Adam Driver) to a duel to the death after Marguerite (Jodie Comer), Carrouges’ wife, accuses Le Gris of rape. The film premiered as an exclusive theatrical release on October 15, 2021 to largely positive views and celebrations of The Last Duel’s all-star cast performances.
Since the pandemic began closing down theaters in early 2020, streaming premieres have largely been blamed for popular movies’ failures at the box office. This argument was most prominent with the highly anticipated MCU releases like Black Widow and the subsequent Scarlett Johansson-Disney lawsuit over lost earnings, but the movie was still arguably successful in theaters despite a Disney+ streaming release. Strangely, the movies that have brought in the fewest numbers at the box office were the ones that didn’t have a day-and-date dual streaming-theatrical premiere.
A movie similar to The Last Duel as a period drama-action that had a mediocre performance at the box office was The Green Knight, which was critically acclaimed yet didn’t draw in enough moviegoers to offset its franchise counterparts. Similarly, The Card Counter, which had Oscar Isaac and New Hollywood director Paul Schrader as its selling points, has earned less than $4 million since its September premiere. It’s a time in which franchises and existing IP movies are the ones that succeed, and they happen to be killing it at the box office even when a significant portion of them is released on streaming services at the same time as their theatrical debuts. For the non-franchise movies that are taking on Goliaths like Eternals and eventually Spiderman: No Way Home, how are these thoughtful dramas supposed to succeed?
The Last Duel Lost At The Box Office To Halloween Kills
Following No Time To Die as the major October film release event, Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel premiered in a wide release on October 15 alongside Halloween Kills, the second installment of David Gordon Green’s Halloween trilogy. In a surprising turn of events, The Last Duel was absolutely smoked by Halloween Kills at the box office. Against a $100 million budget, The Last Duel only managed to bring in $4.8 million in its opening weekend whereas Halloween Kills, which was also simultaneously streaming on Peacock, earned a whopping $50.4 million. Many expected Halloween Kills to plunge at the box office based on its dual day-and-date release on Peacock, but it managed to bring in a demographic that many films are struggling to adhere to. Per The Hollywood Reporter, nearly 50% of Halloween Kills’ audience was under the age of 25, and this happens to be the age group most consistently attending movies during the pandemic.
Additionally, Green's movie a great marketing campaign despite Halloween Kills' mixed reviews - it’s October, people love to go see Michael Myers around Halloween, and there’s less to do as the nights get shorter and colder, so young audiences are going to flock to see a reliable slasher franchise that they’ve been anticipating for years. Halloween Kills is becoming a streaming anomaly for its surprising box office success, which also points out the major issues with The Last Duel, namely that the big-bad dual streaming release wasn’t what caused its failure.
The Last Duel's Biggest Problem Was Marketing, Not Streaming
It’s easy to blame streaming for box office failures in pandemic times, but The Last Duel was a surprising bomb that wasn’t subject to a simultaneous day-and-date streaming release. As such, The Last Duel’s failure suggests streaming isn’t the biggest villain for theatrical bombs - it’s still poor marketing. Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel truly had a lot going for it, with it being Scott’s first major picture since Alien: Covenant and All the Money in the World in 2017. As one of the most prolific blockbuster directors since 1979, Ridley Scott has built a loyal fanbase that should have meant at least mediocre theater attendance for The Last Duel. Sadly, the movie didn’t even break $5 million in its opening weekend at the box office.
The marketing for The Last Duel was surprisingly weak considering its stellar cast and notable director, but it did also call back to what was beloved of old-school Hollywood. The Last Duel’s historical epic loaded with (non-CGI) action was heavily marketed to classic Hollywood fans that primarily consists of an older audience, and this is the demographic that has yet to truly return to cinemagoing. The Last Duel’s opening weekend ticket buyer demographics featured only 2 percent under the age of 18, 17 percent under the age of 25, and more than 80 percent of its audience was over the age of 25 (via THR). Despite the fact that very few tickets were sold, the overriding majority of them were sold to older audience members, with a seemingly minuscule allotment to the under 25s. Even with 80% of tickets accounted for by over 25s (and a demographic that is likely older still, in reality), that doesn't amount to a great deal and shows the problem of marketing to a group who don't want to come out to the cinema. The audience split confirms the marketing would be smart in an ordinary world, but cinema is not one at the minute.
This said, by the time The Last Duel was released and its poor box office performance was reported, many hadn’t even realized it was out yet. The marketing lead-up to its premiere was scarce, so those who went to see it were either truly invested in the premise, stars, and action, or are more subscribed to the Hollywood industry and all of its upcoming movie releases. Returning to The Last Duel’s 2021 theatrical age-range marketing, Disney should have noticed that those attending films were in the younger demographic, and should have adjusted its trailer choices accordingly. For one, many had no idea Ben Affleck was in the movie or what his role was - he was only a blip in the trailers. Affleck has a lot of pull with how present he is in the pop culture gossip sphere and especially through his reach into younger audiences with his role as Batman, so The Last Duel should have used his image as a selling point.
The Last Duel also happened to be one of the last upcoming movies acquired by Disney in its deal with 20th Century Fox. Scott’s movie is a medieval drama based on no existing IP that features a dark, upsetting premise - which is not what Disney is primarily focusing on. At the time time, a gripping period drama with no corporate investment for franchisement and overused IP is exactly what Hollywood needs right now. With Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and Free Guy rounding out summer releases and major blockbusters like Eternals, Spider-Man: No Way Home, and West Side Story coming up in November and December, The Last Duel, which has no franchise potential or existing fanbase, was clearly not Disney's priority. Word of mouth essentially branded The Last Duel as a true story about a rape allegation, and while the subject matter is important in the Me Too context and as a true historical retrospective, it’s not what’s going to pull in audiences over Michael Myers, a reliable franchise figure, terrorizing Haddonfield in Halloween Kills.
Interestingly, the conversations on social media about The Last Duel’s unfortunate box office failure seem to be increasing theater attendance. The initial marketing for The Last Duel may not have worked off the bat, but its reputation as a gripping movie that shouldn’t have bombed is making up for it in the long run. It’s a Ridley Scott action movie reminiscent of Gladiator featuring the reunion of Ben Affleck and Matt Damon while starring newer Hollywood figures Jodie Comer and Adam Driver - The Last Duel should not have bombed at the box office. Strangely, it may have even benefitted by growing a larger audience had it been simultaneously released on Hulu for its first 45 days. The Last Duel is an action-packed movie that deserves to be seen on the big screen, but the crowd it’s looking for is at home. If Disney moves The Last Duel to an earlier VOD release, it may be able to recoup its losses faster and gain a more passionate audience to increase its Oscars chances. It's not unheard of, with the beloved Shawshank Redemption being a notable case of a box office dud-turned-home rental success.
The Last Duel Released At The Wrong Time (& Shows Other Box Office Issues)
With the sudden plethora of major film releases in Fall 2021, audiences really have to choose which movies they’re most eager to see and risk COVID exposure for. No Time To Die's opening brought out a surprising demographic to the movie theater with the 35+ crowd, which has historically been the most loyal theater-going age bracket. For many in this age range, it was the first time they had been back to movie theaters since the pandemic began (via THR). It seems older audiences are more willing to risk exposure to see Daniel Craig's last hurrah as James Bond than venture outside than see movies like The Last Duel whose characters audiences don't have an established relationship with. The Last Duel would have been far better suited for a break in the major-release packed schedule, though it’s clearly on an Oscars campaign and thus wants to be closer to the tail end of 2021.
The Last Duel is still fighting off late ticket buyers for No Time To Die, slasher fans for Halloween Kills, and Marvel’s Venom 2 fans, and it isn’t slowing down in future weeks. Now, The Last Duel has to battle long-anticipated blockbusters with loyal franchise fans like Dune, Wes Anderson fans for The French Dispatch, and Edgar Wright’s anticipated horror movie Last Night in Soho. The Fall 2021 schedule is packed, which is a significant reason why many movies scheduled for this time like Top Gun: Maverick have been delayed until late in 2022. Many of the highly anticipated movies that will likely still be critically acclaimed will suffer at the box office throughout the next few months, and like The Last Duel, it won’t have anything to do with how well-made or gripping the subject matter actually is. The Last Duel still has a chance to grow its box office earnings by bringing in more viewers through word of mouth, but missed an opportunity to succeed outside of the IP-full Fall lineup.