John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum is projected to top Avengers: Endgame during its opening weekend at the box office. Since debuting nearly a month ago, the latest Marvel blockbuster has put together an unprecedented commercial run, soaring past the $2 billion mark in record time. Endgame was truly unlike anything the marketplace had seen before, dismantling longstanding industry conventions and blowing predictions right out of the water. Some movies are lucky to make $1.2 billion their entire time in theaters; Endgame grossed that much in five days.
Because Endgame opened so high and was one of the most anticipated movie events of the year, it was going to stay in the #1 position on the charts for an extended period of time. Even with other tentpoles like Detective Pikachu coming out, Endgame remained on top thanks to its enthusiastic word-of-mouth and repeat viewings. But every reign eventually comes to an end, and it appears Earth's Mightiest Heroes will have to yield the crown to the Baba Yaga.
According to Box Office Pro, John Wick 3 is poised to earn $52.5 million domestically in its first three days, which would be a new franchise high. The 2014 original opened with a modest $14.4 million, while 2017's Chapter 2 made $30.4 million in its debut. Endgame is expected to slide down to second with $36 million.
This would be a great start for John Wick (nearly matching the film's production budget via U.S. ticket sales alone), and it wouldn't be entirely surprising. Since its humble beginnings as a sleeper genre hit buoyed by fascinating world-building, the series has grown and is now considered one of the premier action properties of the 21st century. Chapter 2's worldwide gross almost doubled the total of the original, and now the third installment should be an even bigger hit. In addition to the fanfare and anticipation, Chapter 3 is also a really good film, receiving positive reviews from critics ahead of its release. Once again, director Chad Stahelski and company upped the ante in regards to their set pieces, crafting visually-stunning sequences that demand to be seen on the big screen. It's been a while since a strong, R-rated action flick hit theaters, so the target demographic is chomping at the bit for this.
If the actuals match or surpass these projections, it'll be interesting to see what impact (if any) the numbers have on the development of future John Wick films. At first glance, Chapter 3 has the look and feel of a final entry, especially given its premise of "John Wick vs. the world." However, star Keanu Reeves and Stahelski have both gone on record to say they'd be up to make more, as long as audience interest is there. Barring any unforeseen catastrophes, it looks like there's a lot of demand still to see the Baba Yaga mow down his enemies in ruthless fashion, so John Wick may not be ready to ride off into the sunset just yet.
Source: Box Office Pro
- John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum (2019) release date: May 17, 2019